Polling done by the Venezuelan opposition shows 90% of the people opposed a foreign power doing regime change in the country. So it’s a very small minority that are for this. This is going to be very difficult for a US puppet regime to control the country. The other problem is if this a regime operation what comes next? Let’s say they do the Israeli method of decapitation strikes and mass bombardment of the Venezuelan military there arises multiple problems. One is after the military is bombed and destroyed they’ll need to completely reconstituted. Even if you have some generals that may go along with the plan to depose Maduro there will be elements that will be against it. So let’s say in the best case scenario 70% of the military goes along with this plan the 30% will simply join the millions of Chavista urban and rural militias to resist this government. And now you have a civil war in Venezuela which will destabilize South America and the Caribbean. Not to mention you’ll have battle hardened far leftist guerrilla groups like FARC and the ELN that will flock to Venezuela to resist the new government. The US would have financially back stop the new Venezuelan government to prevent it from collapsing. It will be in similar precarious state like the US backed afghan government.
And I’d imagine there are plenty patriotic Venezuelans in the military who would oppose a foreign backed regime change military operation even if they don’t like Maduro.
The US military will tactically win with sheer military firepower. There is very little Venezuela could do to hurt the US military. However Maduro did many things smart. He ordered the mobilization of the Bolivarian militias. He ordered weapons to be given to the citizenry and the creation of an international brigades in Venezuela. These things alone will make it very difficult for a pro US puppet government to govern Venezuela. Civil war will most certainly happen in a post Maduro era. Chavez and Maduro created these militias for that sole purpose.
And the US will make a very strategic mistake. Turning Venezuela into Libya will have consequences on the region. Weapons will flow to the vulnerable Caribbean region and South America to already have heavily armed criminal groups. Leftist guerrilla groups like FARC and ELN will have a base to operate destabilizing Colombia. The US image in Latin America will be heavily damaged. There is already an anti gringo sentiment in the region. US jets killing Latino civilians will lead to severe blowback the US. Pro US govts in the area will be in a very tight spot. This is why the US in the past used soft power using local oligarchs and elites in combination with local militaries to do their dirty work. Outright US aggression will infuriate the region. However Trump and his MAGA supporters don’t think things through.
And I’d imagine there are plenty patriotic Venezuelans in the military who would oppose a foreign backed regime change military operation even if they don’t like Maduro.
The US military will tactically win with sheer military firepower. There is very little Venezuela could do to hurt the US military. However Maduro did many things smart. He ordered the mobilization of the Bolivarian militias. He ordered weapons to be given to the citizenry and the creation of an international brigades in Venezuela. These things alone will make it very difficult for a pro US puppet government to govern Venezuela. Civil war will most certainly happen in a post Maduro era. Chavez and Maduro created these militias for that sole purpose.
And the US will make a very strategic mistake. Turning Venezuela into Libya will have consequences on the region. Weapons will flow to the vulnerable Caribbean region and South America to already have heavily armed criminal groups. Leftist guerrilla groups like FARC and ELN will have a base to operate destabilizing Colombia. The US image in Latin America will be heavily damaged. There is already an anti gringo sentiment in the region. US jets killing Latino civilians will lead to severe blowback the US. Pro US govts in the area will be in a very tight spot. This is why the US in the past used soft power using local oligarchs and elites in combination with local militaries to do their dirty work. Outright US aggression will infuriate the region. However Trump and his MAGA supporters don’t think things through.