Maybe the goal of CN is to assist the "controlled decline" and maybe not to corner "US" so much, hence the alleged resume of RE export?
Trump 2.0 official thread
- Thread starter siegecrossbow
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What do you think Trump was trying to do with that Ukrainian mineral deal, that was negotiated on before the current trade war?
You are aware people have been saying this all the way back to the first trade war, when folks were speculating that one of the few retaliations that China had in its book was rare earths, right? That its a weak card for China since rare earths can be found elsewhere like Australia and Canada, and cited I think a case around 2010 or so, when China used rare earths against Japan and it failed because they just sourced from elsewhere. Folks were saying the same thing again this time around, "Oh, rare earths are not rare, we'll just found them outside of China."
But the fact that China actually managed to bring global production lines to standstill shows, that its the West blowing smoke. There is no alternative to China for rare earths.
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What does fighting to the bitter end look like for you? Do you think China going through this unscathed? Factories and workers were being hurt on both sides. If Trump wanted to be a prick and go on longer, China would've done the same. But the leadership is practical and if Trump due to getting himself into multiple crisis wanted instead to bring everything back to square one and shelve this, whose the CPC to say no?
You wanted them to tell Trump hell no and keep kicking? That's not how trade works buddy.
In case anyone is interested. Here is the non-paywall version of the article you asked me to read.
Your article mostly focuses on samarium. Despite its uses in wider military application, it is still a dual use mineral with civilian applications in car, turbines and headphones. It doesn’t refute my main argument that rare earth approved for final civilian use could be secretly diverted because china has limited inspection power. Since samarium is on the US list for stockpiling, it makes my suggested scenario much more likely.
Read this article for a breakdown of the uses of seven restricted rare earth minerals.
Actually, all seven rare earth minerals restricted by china in April have both civilian and military uses. For example, Terbium can be used for smartphone, but also adds temperature resilience to magnets used in missiles. Yttrium is used in medical applications to treat cancer, but it can also be used in high temperature superconductors. Scandium is used in fighter plane components as well as oil refining. Gadolinium is used in MRI contrast as well as enhancing performance of alloys improving heat resistance which could be relevant in military jet engine manufacturing. You can read about the rest in article linked above. I think US firms applying for permits would emphasize their civilian usage needs.
Also, your NYT article was published before the announced “deal” which makes it out of date with the current information. In light of the “deal”, China could grant permits for samarium in the coming days probably with Trump administration's continuing public pressure. We will soon find out.
Need to wait for more details. But during Trump 1.0, China did indeed lose the ZTE fight back in 2018. China was caught completely off guard by the foreign direct product rule.
People seem struggle to understand the difference between export control and ban, China has always been granting licenses and never said it wont, the licensing system exist to enforce compliance with end user sanctions and prevent stockpiling, nobody said China has removed that system, the fact that there is a license andcthe license expires in 6 month means the reciever can only be the receiver of the license, not anyone, and in quantities the license grants, not arbitary.
Trump manufactured cards and exchanged them for China expediating processing of applications that China never said they wont approve but also no applications China wouldnt have approved, at end of the day China continues to throttle the entire US economy while US performed zero net action.
Trump basically tried to frame China allowing the US civilian economy to live for 6 month as a win while implicitly accepted the new normal where US now need a license from China to live and that license need to be renewed every 6 month based on good behavior.
Having inspection power is the condition for granting license, and its up to the applicant to provide inspection power, this is the reason for the slow approvals that a lot tookvas a ban.
Obviously US will attempt to hide the end use including creating front companies and forging documents, just as they already tried smuggling, but compared to unrestricted trade, volume through shell companies or smuggling will still be significant reduced and thats already enough to massively impact US defence industry.
If anything the bigger a fit Trump throws over this the more it indicate how much damage its doing, which is information they'll never volunteer otherwise.
Sounds like the annual MFN renewal from 1989 to 2001 by the US on China.
What about the rare earth licensing toward EU and India. Somehow the majour new outlets are not focusing on the effects on India and EU despite several EU auto production line reportedly got shut down as a result.
You know China successfully established a new normal, when people now consider China not anhiliating the entire US manfacturing industry as a loss, while US needing to apply for a new license every 6 month on what industry China alows them to have as a win.
Just imagine the roles were reversed and its China that removed all retaliation in exhange for a 6 month license so select US permitted industries can stay open, it would have been a complete humiliation.
Also keep in mind China can revoke license at any time before 6 month is up
#MAGAcommunism is True!
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