Trade War with China

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Nutrient

Junior Member
Registered Member
Whatever excess industrial capacity resulting from the tariffs might be absorbed by Chinese consumers in the next few years.

Exactly. Any drop in China's exports to the U.S. (4% of GDP at most) can easily be absorbed by China's own internal consumption. This is what I just said, but it looks like you beat me to it. :)

In 10-15 years, China's economy will double again if it policies remain good.

A 6% growth rate means a doubling time of less than 12 years. For 5% growth, the doubling time would be slightly over 14 years.
 

Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
I don't think a 6% or even a 5% gdp growth can be sustained for a decade. May be three more years and by the 2030, it is going to be around 3.5 or 4% growth.
 

Quickie

Colonel
Also, according to the
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, in 2017 China's total exports accounted for less than 20% of GDP. So exports to the U.S. amount to 18% of 20%, or 3.6% of GDP. Even if the whole 3.6% should stay in China (which is not so likely), the excess goods could easily be absorbed by a small rise in the country's internal consumption.

Why not use the deficit amount? 323/14000 = 2.3%
It is less than 2.3% if you take into account the fact that a proportion of exports are from multinational companies with them taking the bulk of the earnings from the proceeds of export. For a company like Apple, the profit margin could be as high as 50%.
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
I don't think a 6% or even a 5% gdp growth can be sustained for a decade. May be three more years and by the 2030, it is going to be around 3.5 or 4% growth.

Depends on the policies in place. Singapore maintained over 6% avg for 40 years. If China can do it for just 10 more then PPP per capita might reach 30k+.
 
now
Dow plunges 700 points after China retaliates with higher tariffs
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The Dow plunged Monday after China said it will raise tariffs in retaliation to last week's tariff increase by the United States.
China hiked
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of imports from the United States. It first imposed the tariffs last year.
Worries over the escalation of the trade spat with China just aren't going away.
US stocks were sharply lower. The Dow fell more than 700 points. The S&P 500 (
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) fell 2.7% and the Nasdaq (
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) dropped 3.5%. (Follow live coverage of the market meltdown in
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.)
The Dow is having its worst day since January 3, according to Refinitiv. For the S&P and the Nasdaq it's the worst one-day percentage drop since December 4.
Not a single Dow stock was positive at midday. In the S&P 500,
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, and most of them were in the utilities sector, which tends to not react to big broad market moves.
The Russel 2000 Index of small-cap stocks fell into correction territory. It has dropped more than 10% from its August 2018 high.
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between Washington and Beijing, starting with a tweet from President Donald Trump on Sunday, May 5. Trump threatened further tariffs on Chinese imports, and his administration followed through on Friday, when it raised tariffs to 25% from 10% on some $200 billion worth of imported goods from China. The additional tariffs are not expected to affect goods already in transit, which buys negotiators a new negotiation window.
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after Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin called last week's talk with Chinese negotiators "constructive." Still, the Dow ended the week 2.1% lower, making its worst week since March.
Over the weekend, Trump tweeted extensively about the trade spat, calling US companies to
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to avoid tariffs and that a trade deal will get
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. He also reiterated that Beijing "broke the deal".
"This is a clear escalation of trade tensions in our view, and against our baseline that cool heads would prevail and the worst would be avoided," wrote Bank of America strategist Athanasios Vamvakidis in a note.
Trump also partly attributed the first quarter US
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.
White House economist adviser Larry Kudlow said on Sunday the US expected retaliation from China over the new tariffs.
China will "never yield to external pressure" and is determined to protect its rights, said Geng Shuang, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Monday.
"We still believe that both countries have strong incentives to compromise and that the authorities are well aware of what is at stake for their economies otherwise. A call between Presidents Trump and Xi in the next few days could easily turn everything back to normal," said Vamvakidis.
European stocks closed lower across the board. Asian markets also finished lower, with the Shanghai Composite (
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) ending Monday trading down 1.2%.
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
Now it's almost like a 21th-century version of The Emperor's New Clothes, I don't understand what is Trump's ultimate goal for this trade war, and I begin to believe even himself has no idea what is he doing...

Yes, you maybe right. BUT, the dangerous thing is, his band of loyal followers, like the tea party, MAGA, don't understand that he is just firing off anything without serious thoght process. Indeed, some of the things he said like "China is paying" is plainly incorrect.

But his band 9f loyal followers believe and swallow every words, and vote him in accordlingly
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
Trump will say what he wants to say.

I said this when he was first elected: Trump has run six businesses into bankruptcy. It's increasingly looking like he's going to run the US into bankruptcy as well.

As yet, we still haven't see his tax return!
Don't you think the voters have a right to know how good (lol) a businessman he was?!
 
now I read
Commentary: Maximum pressure on China won't work
Xinhua| 2019-05-13 23:36:29
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The latest round of China-U.S. trade talks ended up with no deal reached, although China has shown maximum sincerity and fulfilled its duties to solve the frictions.

The U.S. side should take full responsibility for the result. When it ignored China's sincerity and action, used flip-flop tactics and inflicted maximum pressure on China in the negotiation, it presents a policy of typical trade bullying.

Although China is under great pressure, it will firmly defend its core national interests, safeguard the fundamental interests of its people, and never compromise on issues of principle.

Meanwhile, China is open to consultation and cooperation. On the basis of mutual respect, equality and mutual benefits, it will always make efforts to solve bilateral trade issues in the right direction.

Over the past year, the United States ignited and escalated trade frictions with China, which severely impaired the time-honored bilateral trade relations and hindered global economic growth.

It is wise to look at China-U.S. trade relations through the lens of history. Over 40 years of diplomatic ties between China and the United States, the twists and turns that occurred in this journey did not hold the bilateral relations back from moving forward. Time has proved that cooperation is the only right choice for both sides.

For whom ignited the trade war, the conflict can not solve any problems but shoot itself in the foot. Inflicting maximum pressure on China will not work. Rather, it will lead the consultation to nowhere.

The journey to greatness abounds with hardships. Facing the risks and challenges brought by the China-U.S. trade frictions, China will keep calm, maintain composure, and move forward.

China, with its economic output exceeding 90 trillion yuan (13.24 trillion U.S. dollars), and per capita GDP nearing 10,000 U.S. dollars, along with its ample resilience and great economic potential, is strong enough to withstand any external shocks and risks.

The China-U.S. trade problem could be solved effectively along the right track only when the two sides respect each other's core concerns and meet each other halfway on the basis of mutual respect, equality and mutual benefits.
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
I don't think a 6% or even a 5% gdp growth can be sustained for a decade. May be three more years and by the 2030, it is going to be around 3.5 or 4% growth.

What make you so sure 6% growth rate is unsustainable over the next decade?

China has been growing at over 10% in the past 30 years. I know during the past 30 years, it was mostly from low hanging fruits.
Which is why most western commentators believe in the coming collapse of China.

However, China still have lots of potential to grow, its interior is still relatively under -developed.

And even in the Eastern seaboard and the pearl delta area, there are still lots of opportunity to increase wealth.

Si 6% growth rate is not a lot when you consider US still managed 3% in a mature (maybe tired) economy.
 
an interesting tweet
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Dans son journal télévisé d'aujourd'hui, la chaîne de télévision nationale CCTV a commenté la guerre commerciale US-Chine avec une rare fermeté : "Vous voulez négocier, la porte est grande ouverte. Vous voulez la guerre, on vous suivra jusqu'au bout"...
Translated from French by [google]
In today's newscast, the national television channel CCTV commented on the US-China trade war with a rare firmness: "You want to negotiate, the door is wide open, you want the war, we will follow you until at the end"...

[the TV report linked]
 
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