Trade War with China

Jura The idiot · May 13, 2019

now "retweeting" from

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There is no reason for the U.S. Consumer to pay the Tariffs, which take effect on China today. This has been proven recently when only 4 points were paid by the U.S., 21 points by China because China subsidizes product to such a large degree. Also, the Tariffs can be.....
5:55 PM · May 13, 2019

...completely avoided if you buy from a non-Tariffed Country, or you buy the product inside the USA (the best idea). That’s Zero Tariffs. Many Tariffed companies will be leaving China for Vietnam and other such countries in Asia. That’s why China wants to make a deal so badly!...

..There will be nobody left in China to do business with. Very bad for China, very good for USA! But China has taken so advantage of the U.S. for so many years, that they are way ahead (Our Presidents did not do the job). Therefore, China should not retaliate-will only get worse!

manqiangrexue · May 13, 2019

Jura said:
an interesting tweet
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Dans son journal télévisé d'aujourd'hui, la chaîne de télévision nationale CCTV a commenté la guerre commerciale US-Chine avec une rare fermeté : "Vous voulez négocier, la porte est grande ouverte. Vous voulez la guerre, on vous suivra jusqu'au bout"...
Translated from French by [google]
In today's newscast, the national television channel CCTV commented on the US-China trade war with a rare firmness: "You want to negotiate, the door is wide open, you want the war, we will follow you until at the end"...

[the TV report linked]

China's starting to win hearts setting a global example for how to stand up to Trump. Looks like ZhongNanHai knows better than me and my suggestion to out-gutter talk Cadet Bone Spurs.

Jura The idiot · May 13, 2019

13 minutes ago

Jura said:
an interesting tweet
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Dans son journal télévisé d'aujourd'hui, la chaîne de télévision nationale CCTV a commenté la guerre commerciale US-Chine avec une rare fermeté : "Vous voulez négocier, la porte est grande ouverte. Vous voulez la guerre, on vous suivra jusqu'au bout"...
Translated from French by [google]
In today's newscast, the national television channel CCTV commented on the US-China trade war with a rare firmness: "You want to negotiate, the door is wide open, you want the war, we will follow you until at the end"...

[the TV report linked]

I guess it's described inside
China vows to fight “to the end” after saying it will raise tariffs on US$60 billion of US goods in trade war escalation
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:
"Shortly before the Chinese finance ministry announced the new tariffs, China’s state broadcaster CCTV aired a warning shot on the trade war during the country’s most watched daily news program, Xinwen Lianbo.

“China has already given its answer (to the US): if you want to talk, our door is wide open; if you want to fight, we'll fight you to the end,” an anchor read."

Jura The idiot · May 13, 2019

now I read
Tall tales won’t help US win trade war
Source:Global Times Published: 2019/5/13 22:38:40
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White House Chief Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow said Sunday that both the US and China will suffer when questioned about who would pay the tariffs imposed by the US on Chinese imports in an interview on Fox News. Although he also argued that the effect on the US economy would be modest, his remarks were singled out by the US media for contradicting US President Donald Trump's claim that duties are a good option that would help the US economy.

The China-US trade war is unprecedented. With everything on the table, Washington is becoming increasingly anxious at seeing no sign of China concessions. The US had hoped China would quickly surrender and didn't psychologically prepare itself for a protracted war. The way the US has opted to mobilize public support is telling untenable stories. For instance,Washington stressed that it could collect $100 billion in tariff revenue and China would pay the tariffs. For the new tariffs, it claimed "only 4 points were paid by the US" and "21 points by China." This is nonsense.

It's well known that tariffs are paid by US importers and those importers can negotiate with Chinese manufacturers to share some of the burden. Given that the original profits of those Chinese products are quite small, it's hard for American importers to make Chinese manufacturers help and ultimately, the tariffs will largely be passed onto American consumers.

The US also claimed that its tariff hikes would force companies to leave China. China itself today is a huge market, the size of which is comparable to, and on the trend to surpass, that of the US. China's development in essence is intended to meet the demands for a better life of more than 1 billion people in the country. The consumption capabilities and market consumption potential driven by demand are what foreign companies value most when they come to China.

The White House might as well try to call on American companies such as General Motors, Ford, Apple, McDonald's and Coca-Cola to leave China. Will any of them follow?

China on Monday announced tariff hikes ranging from 5 percent to 25 percent on $60 billion worth of US goods. This demonstrates China's determination to resolutely strike back against the US tariff moves. We believe China surely will take further countermeasures.

China has plenty of countermeasures. The US tariff moves are very much like spraying bullets. They will cause a lot of self-inflicted harm and are hard to sustain in the long term. China, on the other hand, is going to aim with precision, trying to avoid hurting itself.

The Chinese government has been blunt about the difficulties and losses that the trade war will bring to the Chinese economy. This is in sharp contrast to the US government seeking to beautify the trade war.

The Chinese side is obviously more realistic while the US is falsifying. This will, to a large extent, influence how the two countries digest the trade war impacts.

Xizor · May 13, 2019

Gatekeeper said:
What make you so sure 6% growth rate is unsustainable over the next decade?

China has been growing at over 10% in the past 30 years. I know during the past 30 years, it was mostly from low hanging fruits.
Which is why most western commentators believe in the coming collapse of China.

However, China still have lots of potential to grow, its interior is still relatively under -developed.

And even in the Eastern seaboard and the pearl delta area, there are still lots of opportunity to increase wealth.

Si 6% growth rate is not a lot when you consider US still managed 3% in a mature (maybe tired) economy.

The 260% of private debt . The government would sooner or later have to restructure policies and identify / rectify the issues. Shadow banking has to be brought under control. All this means the economy will face shortages on cash available to invest in new growth. Thus the gdp growth will suffer a bit. Add in the trade war and there could be a 2.5% or 3% drop.

manqiangrexue · May 13, 2019

Xsizor said:
The 260% of private debt . The government would sooner or later have to restructure policies and identify / rectify the issues. Shadow banking has to be brought under control. All this means the economy will face shortages on cash available to invest in new growth. Thus the gdp growth will suffer a bit. Add in the trade war and there could be a 2.5% or 3% drop.

Where did you get 2.5-3% from? I'm getting numbers in the 0.5% range for both economies but even then I'm skeptical because China has a lot of poorer parts (like Guangxi) it can throw investment into to keep growing.

localizer · May 13, 2019

Xsizor said:
The 260% of private debt . The government would sooner or later have to restructure policies and identify / rectify the issues. Shadow banking has to be brought under control. All this means the economy will face shortages on cash available to invest in new growth. Thus the gdp growth will suffer a bit. Add in the trade war and there could be a 2.5% or 3% drop.

Even economists don't know how to deal with debt. It's hard to say what will happen.

gelgoog · May 13, 2019

There is still lots of room for China to grow for example with clean tech. Just improving air and water quality in the major cities alone will require huge investments of a scale not that different from the transportation investments. You will need new power plants, sewage treatment facilities, etc. Then you can add over the next decade the possibility of maglev trains becoming available, electric cars becoming more widespread, HVDC electric grids using ballistic superconductors, China will be able to do massive investments over the next decade which can substantially raise their GDP, improve quality of life, and decrease import dependence. Many of these investments will profit from state funding which is something the US severely lacks.

I do not think debt is a problem in an economy as centralized as China's. The government can simply erase debt by printing more currency, they can even erase part of the debt if they want to, because the banks are state controlled. What can be a problem is misallocation of resources.

AssassinsMace · May 13, 2019

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They just don't understand why China just can't accept being America's bitch!

Let me beat you while making money from you at the same time. What's so wrong about that?

They don't like Made in China 2025 because it'll make China independent from them but at the same time display how they'll destroy Chinese competition like with ZTE by denying them the parts they need. And somehow they don't understand how Chinese don't see that's perfectly reasonable.

The Democrats are taking advantage by pointing out how Trump abandoned TPP. How was TPP going to be different? TPP members still want to sell to China. Or maybe with the articles above, they think they can force China to buy their products so they don't get hurt while ganging up on China at the same time. The only way China market dependent Asian economies would go along is if the US pays for their losses not being able to sell their goods when China retaliates. And that's where they're stuck like Trump is now. It's not just Trump that thinks the world will pay the price for whatever the US wants. Even Obama expected Asian countries to pay the price for his Pivot to Asia and that's why it failed. And they still think the world would will follow blindly and pay the price for whatever the US wants.

Masticore99 · May 13, 2019

Xsizor said:
The 260% of private debt . The government would sooner or later have to restructure policies and identify / rectify the issues. Shadow banking has to be brought under control. All this means the economy will face shortages on cash available to invest in new growth. Thus the gdp growth will suffer a bit. Add in the trade war and there could be a 2.5% or 3% drop.

What? China will never run out of "cash". It can run out of USD, but it will never run out of RMB because it can simply create it through monetary stimulus like the Federal Reserve creates "liquidity". As long as China spends RMB domestically it will never run out. Excessive stimulus would, however, result in inflation but the experiences of Japan and the US has so far proven that fiscal and monetary stimulus by themselves, do not create consumer price inflation. It creates asset inflation.

Trade War with China

Jura The idiot

General

manqiangrexue

Brigadier

Jura The idiot

General

Jura The idiot

General

Xizor

Captain

manqiangrexue

Brigadier

localizer

Colonel

gelgoog

Brigadier

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General

Masticore99

Banned Idiot