Thanks, Jeff. I really enjoy some of the discussions that I find on this forum -some other forums I've seen are not exactly focused on the business at hand.
It might be interesting though, keeping in mind the risks that go with trying to foresee the future, just what the Top Ten list may look like in several years' time, and what factors may be involved (ie. economic growth or decline, aging populations, and internal stability, changes in national policy or popular sentiment, etc.):
1. USA (Still number 1, though feeling increasing recruitment strain due in part to an aging population, and in part due to the fact that substantial portions of the American population, typically further up on the economic rung, do not send their children into the military-this was an observation that the late military journalist Max Hastings went to pains to make in one or two of his books)
2. Russia (Still number 2, but a lot of this depends upon petroleum and natural gas prices remaining high enough to finance Russian rearmament)
3. China (If China's economy is able to continue to expand without tearing Chinese society
apart and enough young manpower is still able to be wrung from a rapidly aging population, then it should be able to approach, and maybe even match in some areas, much of the West's standards of training, expertise, and technology. This, combined with China's greater military manpower and expanding industrial base, may enable it to knock Britiain and France out of their slots several years down the road).
4. Britain (Provided that, all other things remaining relatively stable, the two new Carriers actually materialize).
5. France (Again, much the same situation as Britain, although with the added emphasis on improving the professional standards of parts of the Army)
6. Japan (Some of the old nationalist sentiments have been fermenting within the Liberal Democratic Party, and the growing power of China in particular has spurred them to revise the Constitution in critical areas-not to mention investing in some new carriers. Japan will also need to develop a good deal more professional military expertise-high technology is not enough even with modestly good professional military standards- and an aging population will make it harder to get good troops)
7. Israel (Depends upon immigration to offset aging population and growing Arab populations, as well as continued American support)
8. India (Will probably remain about middling amongst the Great Powers for a while yet, but give another generation or so, could be in the top five)
9. South Korea (Between North Korea, Japan, and China, South Korea I don't think the South Koreans, with their substantial heavy industrial base and the four new carriers they have on the way, will remain complacent while squeezed between 4 countries that they have very bad experiences with, all in living memory- unless North Korea implodes, and South Korea finds itself spending its national treasure on trying to deal with that mess)
10. Brazil (What's hlding Brazil back right now is its economics-not that it is a poor country, it's not-but the wealth is very unevenly held, and economic reforms have led to some political and economic stress)
Countries not on the Top Ten list several years from now, but are now, or could have been:
1. Germany (Unless there is a resurgence of old-time nationalism or a fear of a resurgent Russia, unlikely to get into the Top Ten-national sentiment just isn't there, except in the East)
2. Pakistan (Could well be in the Top Ten several years from now, IF it can stay sufficiently stable politically AND if it can become more self-sufficient in the production of relatively modern armaments-if not, it could fall right off the Top Ten List very quickly and dramatically)
3. North Korea (It seems doubtful that North Korea can stay on the Top Ten List, or any other list for that matter, indefinitely. Unless Pyongyang does something dramatic-such as turn itself into a cheap-labour site for South Korean industrialists, and this it may already be attempting-it seems very likely to be unable to stave off eventual disintegration, leaving South Korea possibly, to try to pick up the pieces-As an aside, the old East Germany has still not completely reintegrated with the rest of Germany, and it's been nearly twenty years since reunification. Just imagine the nightmare South Korea would face trying to reintegrate the North-for the purposes of the Top Ten List, South korea could be knocked off that list for quite a while, and of course, North Korea disappear)
4. Iran (Has the potential, with its educated young population and petroleum wealth, within a generation to become a low grade Great Power, provided internal stresses-especially its young people-work themselves out in time)
One more Country to Watch:
1. Indonesia (With its massive population, considerable natural resources, and growing industrial base-albeit hurt badly in the 1990's by the Asian monetary crisis-Indonesia in a generation or two MIGHT become a real power to be reckoned with-if the economy is handled well and Indonesia is able to achieve sufficient political stability to allow it to really exploit its potential)
If I am off-topic with this, please let me know so I don't do it again.
