The War in the Ukraine

BlackWindMnt said:

Would this give some credence to the rumors of Russia buying ammunition/shells from North Korean that appeared some time ago?

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I imagine what actually happened is they were checking for compatibility just in case. Western propaganda made it as though they were actually buying shells. I think if this did happen there would be failed fuses with Korean writings on them already.

So if did happen after all, I think it was one of the last few cards Russia could play if it wanted to win the war. Looks like Russian forces will be bolstered to the tune of 300k extra personnel, if only they had done this at the start of the conflict rather then dragging their feet for 6 months... So many Russian and Ukrainian lives would've been spared.

Shoigu: "Partial mobilization is primarily needed to control the liberated territories and the 1,000 km line of contact what is there, along this line - it must be consolidated, these territories must be controlled. And, of course, first of all, this work is being done for this - I mean, partial mobilization".

Looks like West is switching propaganda scripts now.

Members here noticed a relative propaganda silence in the last 24 hours. Less of the "Russia is losing, running out of men and equipment." Well, it's because they're switching to the "Putin is ruining Russia with mobilization" script. I just saw this video pop up on Youtube, of an apparent Russian dissatisfied with the partial mobilization:


Nice video, it's a bare apartment with some insignia. Could be anywhere, like those "Wuhan" videos early in the pandemic. They likely had these types of things lined up earlier, in anticipation of mobilization, and are now going ahead with it.

Alright get your predictions in for this winter.

With up to 500,000 troops, what would you do? Me I will go for Kiev Offensive 2.0 from Belarus direction. Back at the start of the year they weren't enough troops from that direction and the crappy road from there during mud season meant supply lines could not support a major offensive. With winter and the ground frozen it may be possible for a decisive attack.

Temstar said:

Alright get your predictions in for this winter.

With up to 500,000 troops, what would you do? Me I will go for Kiev Offensive 2.0 from Belarus direction. Back at the start of the year they weren't enough troops from that direction and the crappy road from there during mud season meant supply lines could not support a major offensive. With winter and the ground frozen it may be possible for a decisive attack.

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Donbass / Odessa first. Zapo next. With threats to Kiev to hold down troops again.

The course of the war will change now though the effects of the extra number of soldiers won't be immediate, at first I guess they will be sent to Ukraine but not to the frontlines, however shortly after that they will definitely go to the frontlines.
IMO now that they will more than double the number of troops it would be better if they eventually open a second front in western Ukraine from Belarus instead of concentrating everything on the east, cutting of the land connection between Ukraine and NATO would make things far much easier for Russia. After they take control of the western regions they could call on more reservists just to use them as a policing and occupation force in the western regions.

Temstar said:

Alright get your predictions in for this winter.

With up to 500,000 troops, what would you do? Me I will go for Kiev Offensive 2.0 from Belarus direction. Back at the start of the year they weren't enough troops from that direction and the crappy road from there during mud season meant supply lines could not support a major offensive. With winter and the ground frozen it may be possible for a decisive attack.

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The issue is not manpower alone, but materiel and industry's ability to support them and fit them out, both in terms of combat units, ISR, and logistics, down to things as mundane as trucks.
And all of that in turn depends on having the combined arms training to organize and operate.


So, 500,000 more troops doesn't mean the equivalent amount of effective or outfitted brigades will emerge in a reasonable time period (if ever).


Russia at this stage has shown that they do not provide people to make optimistic estimates on their behalf -- over the course of the conflict so far, the null hypothesis is where Russia does not have the ability to prosecute a competent and effective war, but we instead need evidence to the contrary to disprove the null hypothesis.

Temstar said:

With up to 500,000 troops, what would you do?

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I would train them for at least two years before doing anything.

Janiz said:

I would train them for at least two years before doing anything.

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These guys are reservists. They already went through military training.