How you can you have air superiority when Ukrainian aircraft are still operating? Which means they still have fuel, munitions, pilots and the infrastructure to maintain them. Air superiority by definition means you control the skies and are not confined to low altitude operations.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
this is one of the few good things they're doing. There is some critical land in Ukraine but having the conquered people is a goal, if implicit, in a way that it wasn't for any other war except maybe Sino-Japanese WW2.
The problem with losing Izyum is that it controls a major bridgehead, refer to map:
Izyum is at the confluence of the Oskil and Siversky Donets rivers, a highly strategic position. Control it and control a bridgehead over the Oskil and Siversky Donets into Luhansk oblast. Bad. If Russians lose Izyum with no corresponding gains elsewhere despite Ukrainian reserves being redeployed away from the southern axis, it is a loss for nothing. But if the Russians manage to make gains near Mykolaiv or Zaporizhia then it will be a trade. A bad trade for Russia, but still a trade rather than nothing. Losing Izyum, while not as devastating as losing Kherson, is a loss of a very important location.
I have to hand it to the Ukrainians on this one. They had the courage to sacrifice a huge amount of troops in Kherson and special forces at Zaporizhia to make gains at Kharkiv. Turns out the Kherson offensive was indeed a feint. A huge, expensive feint, but a feint nonetheless.
I think you meant air supremacy or dominance. Even with air superiority enemy aircraft could still take off and conduct missions. Think of early phase of Gulf War one.
air superiority just means you have an advantage in the air and are suppressing enemy sorties. air supremacy is "he flies, he dies".
My apologies, that was poor terminology on my part. I had always assumed those two terms were interchangeable.
lol guys are getting hysterical here on both sides. as significant as this defeat is it isnt decisive, unless there were massive loss of men and equipment. i dont see that being the case since the reason a rout had taken place was due to the fact that there weren't many russians in the sector in the first place.
people also make the mistake of looking at the maps too much, this battle is about more than just land and troops, but also initiative. ukraine gained initiative here, and it will be difficult for russia to recover that. the frontline will likely freeze in a few weeks due to mud, but then winter sets in. i imagine winter will favor russia a bit more than ukraine. this is because ukraine has a higher composition of conscripts, who were all trained in the summer. fighting in winter is a whole different game, and russia might adapt better here. other factors like frozen rivers and streams will also favor russia.
my forecast is that once winter sets in, ukraine will go back to its game plan last winter, which was to focus on holding cities and settlements. for russia though it makes sense to mobilize soon to have sufficient troops and equipment to make some big push then.
people also make the mistake of looking at the maps too much, this battle is about more than just land and troops, but also initiative. ukraine gained initiative here, and it will be difficult for russia to recover that. the frontline will likely freeze in a few weeks due to mud, but then winter sets in. i imagine winter will favor russia a bit more than ukraine. this is because ukraine has a higher composition of conscripts, who were all trained in the summer. fighting in winter is a whole different game, and russia might adapt better here. other factors like frozen rivers and streams will also favor russia.
my forecast is that once winter sets in, ukraine will go back to its game plan last winter, which was to focus on holding cities and settlements. for russia though it makes sense to mobilize soon to have sufficient troops and equipment to make some big push then.
The Ukrainians in high spirits seem determined to start an offensive in Luhansk
A very active Russian channel has already gone into despair and assures that the only thing that can now prevent the loss of half of the LPR are the massive attacks in Bankovaya (Kyiv) and the tactical nuclear attacks in the western regions of Ukraine.
The level of despair is on another level...
A very active Russian channel has already gone into despair and assures that the only thing that can now prevent the loss of half of the LPR are the massive attacks in Bankovaya (Kyiv) and the tactical nuclear attacks in the western regions of Ukraine.
The level of despair is on another level...
Disagree on winter necessarily favoring Russia.
If Ukraine had waited with the current large offensives (where likely the backbone is NATO volunteers) until winter, it could have been far more devastating. AFU struggles heavily with river crossings, but during the winter, such areas will freeze over and Ukrainian trucks and leg infantry can just go over the rivers to keep proving through the underequipped and understaffed LDPR forces. In other words, Oskil would not have been the dead end for them like in the current offensive.
If Russia is to draw advantage of the winter, they need to start pumping men into Ukraine in earnest. Without mobilisation, the most Russians can do is to find chokepoints and hold ground with no way of advancing.
In a way, AFU has exposed its capability and the uselessness of Wagner + LDPR proxy war strategy without incurring a devastating loss of men on the Allied side. Losing territory is bad, but for currently manpower starved Russia, losing soldiers is much much worse. Hence why Russians were in a hurry to get out instead of doing heroic last stands like the Azov.
A few comments on the Izyum offensive:
1. Ukrainian forces advanced across open terrain. There's nothing but fields between west bank of Oskil River and Chuhuiv. Not a good look for Russian artillery and air power, it seems they were caught unaware or were actually tricked by the feint at Kherson.
2. they need to stop the bleeding near Kharkiv. There is good terrain in the forested hilly region at the eastern bank of the confluence of the Orskil and Donets rivers - they cannot lose that or they will have nothing before Lyman and entire Donbass is under threat.
3. they need to make gains elsewhere to trade. Mykolaiv and Zaporizhia might be the best bets due to depleted forces there.
1. Ukrainian forces advanced across open terrain. There's nothing but fields between west bank of Oskil River and Chuhuiv. Not a good look for Russian artillery and air power, it seems they were caught unaware or were actually tricked by the feint at Kherson.
2. they need to stop the bleeding near Kharkiv. There is good terrain in the forested hilly region at the eastern bank of the confluence of the Orskil and Donets rivers - they cannot lose that or they will have nothing before Lyman and entire Donbass is under threat.
3. they need to make gains elsewhere to trade. Mykolaiv and Zaporizhia might be the best bets due to depleted forces there.