The War in the Ukraine

A report from the Australian Broadcasting Service on the War in Ukraine.

I find that this graph is particularly illuminating. Major US funding only happens after a significant Ukrainian victory; there has been none since the Kherson counter-offensive in late 2022. No one likes to bet on a losing team, after all.

Is there any armaments that the Ukrainians are capable of manufacturing themselves? It seems like they can't do much of anything without begging. Eschewing Soviet-era equipment in favour of Western equipment might be the biggest sin that the Ukrainian military has committed.

lych470 said:

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A report from the Australian Broadcasting Service on the War in Ukraine.

I find that this graph is particularly illuminating. Major US funding only happens after a significant Ukrainian victory; there has been none since the Kherson counter-offensive in late 2022. No one likes to bet on a losing team, after all.

Is there any armaments that the Ukrainians are capable of manufacturing themselves? It seems like they can't do much of anything without begging. Eschewing Soviet-era equipment in favour of Western equipment might be the biggest sin that the Ukrainian military has committed.

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Ukraine didn’t eschew anything. Quite the contrary actually as the west scoured the world for every soviet weapon they could find, even emptying much of the arsenals of several NATO member states with future promises of western made replacements. The Russians just blasted through it all to the point the Ukrainians are now forced to use their much vaunted western made weapons for defence, instead of using them to steamroll the Russian defences as originally wet dreamed by NATO.

And it’s not just weapons the Russians are chewing up on an individual scale. All that killed armour and artillery usually comes with human casualties. Not counting all the poor sods getting shredded in the trenches and/or TOS’d to charcoal.

The French openly talking about sending their foreign legion into Ukraine to free up Ukrainian troops to move to the front is a sign of how badly the Ukrainians are running out of everything including manpower despite the massive press-ganging efforts and calling up even the disabled. The presence of French troops also sets the stage for their own version of the ‘little green men’ takeovers of eastern Ukraine provinces, which is a strong sign that Macron thinks we are heading into the endgame phases now.

Tam said:

now the PLA with their drone operators.

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They were doing that before the war started. There are pictures of it somewhere on this site.

FH-70 howitzer gets taken out by Lancet.


Ukrainian SPG gets taken out by Lancet from the 177th Marine Regiment.


FAB arrivals on Ukrainian positions in South Donetsk.


Bukhanka covered with Kontakt-1 bricks.


Ukrainian SPG gets taken out by Lancet in the Artemovosk direction.


ODAB-500 with UMPK hits Ukrainian position in the village of Ryzhevka at the Sumy region.


Krasnopol strike on a Ukrainian position in a forest line. The way things went off suggest a field ammo depot.


A whole platoon of the 59th Brigade of the AFU decided to give themselves up to the Russians and asked their Russian captors not to include them in the prisoner exchange list. The platoon, on their way to reinforce a position, found everyone in that post already dead. That's when they decided to give up and live. The incident took place in Georgievka, which suggests the Ukrainian front there to be rapidly deteriorating.


T-72B3s at the Nechoteevka Belgorod region, open fire at Ukrainian artillery and mortar positions.


Russian paratroopers shot a Baba Yaga out of the sky.


Rockets took out another Ukrainian S-300 at the vicinity of the Kramatorsk phero-alloy plant. No photo yet but we have coordinates and location.


Ukrainian D-20 howitzer knocked out by Krasnopol.


Ukraine has nearly lost all it's positions in Orlovka.


There are approximately 200 killed out of the rocket attack on the barracks of the 79th Brigade of the AFU in Nikolaev.


RBK-500s with UMPC headed to their destination.


High precision strikes all over Volchansk as the Ukrainians utilize this town to shower Belgorod.


Putin briefed on the restoration of the railway from Rostov on Don to Doneck, Berdyansk and Melitopol that will serve as an alternative Crimean bridge. It will extend to Sevastopol and serve to ring the Sea of Azov.


Ukrainian Buk-M1 taken out by Iskander. Or Tornado-S. With Orlan lasing the target it could also be a Krasnopol.

plawolf said:

Ukraine didn’t eschew anything. Quite the contrary actually as the west scoured the world for every soviet weapon they could find, even emptying much of the arsenals of several NATO member states with future promises of western made replacements. The Russians just blasted through it all to the point the Ukrainians are now forced to use their much vaunted western made weapons for defence, instead of using them to steamroll the Russian defences as originally wet dreamed by NATO.

And it’s not just weapons the Russians are chewing up on an individual scale. All that killed armour and artillery usually comes with human casualties. Not counting all the poor sods getting shredded in the trenches and/or TOS’d to charcoal.

The French openly talking about sending their foreign legion into Ukraine to free up Ukrainian troops to move to the front is a sign of how badly the Ukrainians are running out of everything including manpower despite the massive press-ganging efforts and calling up even the disabled. The presence of French troops also sets the stage for their own version of the ‘little green men’ takeovers of eastern Ukraine provinces, which is a strong sign that Macron thinks we are heading into the endgame phases now.

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Actually, under Petro Poroshenko, the armed forces declared they would adopt NATO calibres and an M-16 style rifle
(2017)
(2020)

I remember this because I thought, this is just big time corruption.

1. If you are planning to phase out 7.62x39 in favour of 5.56x45, then why do you need this intermediate step of replacing all AK-pattern rifles with an M-16 chambered in 7.62x39? It would mean replacing all rifles twice over.

2. The company selling this said they could "upgrade" 7.62x39 into versions 5.56x45, by "changing the upper receiver", but obviously a lie because the magazine well is different.

3. The company that designed the rifle "Aeroscraft" has no history producing any rifles (although a knock off M-16 isn't difficult). The company is American, but founded by an Ukrainian emigre.

4. I also thought there would be additional potential corruption in the retooling process as equipment to manufacture NATO rounds would require lots of financing and "inevitably" expensive German equipment.

For better or worse, the corruption meant none of these changes were ever actually implemented in the 5 years between the initial announcement and the outbreak of war.

Another question to ask, some internet searching shows that Ukraine was not manufacturing 152mm ammo domestically until recently. In 2018, the first demo of domestic ammunition was done. Did talk of NATO calibers slow down any development on this front?

supersnoop said:

Another question to ask, some internet searching shows that Ukraine was not manufacturing 152mm ammo domestically until recently. In 2018, the first demo of domestic ammunition was done. Did talk of NATO calibers slow down any development on this front?

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There were several attempts to kick-start domestic artillery shell production. Corruption problems killed a lot of these efforts. Before the war, a lot of artillery depots also got blown up either by negligence or saboteurs.

caudaceus said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1769057904601051277

Interesting that it claim that Chinese machineries still can't match Siemens

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This is how the author described it.
20. Due to the wide gap in technology, critical supplies from the West are impossible to substitute with the Chinese manufacture

He apparently think that the Chinese CNCs are adaquate to produce all kinds of top weaponry such as J-20 which even Europeans don't have, they are somehow not adaquate to usage by Russia. What a funny "logic".

The author Kamil Galeev is a political "opposition" in Russia and briefly incacerated in Russia, now living in UK. He is living on the western salary. Of course all his lines are "Russia is doomed by not submitting to the West, China is no use in helping".

Here is more background of him.

Ekhem, Kamil is a Polish name. I'd wager half the people here are more Russian than that guy.

Kamil Galeev received master degree from Beijing University (Peking University), so he has some collaberators in China too. According to this Zhihu post, he is from Tartarstan of Russian Federation. His arrest was due to participating protest in Russian in 2020.

I know that just like many other multi-ethnic countries, there are sizable population in Russia of different ancestries including Polish. It is not important of their ancestry or ethnic background but which side they choose to be in.

It is far more likely that Kamil Galeev is of Tatar origin as Kamil is more an arabic name. Either way, people are allowed to have an opinion even if its wrong.

Also note, that people like Kamil might just be informed by people working in the alleged factories who told him that Chinese equipment "isn't good enough" out of ignorance, rather than maliciousness. It's also possible that since many Russian enterprises don't have experience with working with Chinese vendors, that they simply aren't aware that China is capable of providing incredibly advanced tools.

Finally, it also conflicts with previous reporting from Western analysts, that many Russian factories witched to Chinese vendors as a reaction to 2014 sanctions after Russia's actions in Crimea and Donbass.