The War in the Ukraine

gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
Syrskyi was also the guy who defended Kharkiv quite successfully against units of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army when the conflict started. He also had way more success with the Kharkiv counter offensive than whoever was coordinating the attack on Kherson. But of course let us just focus on his failures.

He is actually fairly good either on the offensive or when doing active defense if provided with enough resources. It is just that I don't think his style of command will be effective on this stage of the war really. Ukraine no longer has the equipment to do proper mobile warfare, they lost a huge amount of equipment and trained troops, and the more they try to do it the more they will fail.
 
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HighGround

Junior Member
Registered Member
Syrskyi was also the guy who defended Kharkiv quite successfully against units of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army when the conflict started. He also had way more success with the Kharkiv counter offensive than whoever was coordinating the attack on Kherson. But of course let us just focus on his failures.

He is actually fairly good either on the offensive or when doing active defense if provided with enough resources. It is just that I don't think his style of command will be effective on this stage of the war really. Ukraine no longer has the equipment to do proper mobile warfare, they lost a huge amount of equipment and trained troops, and the more they try to do it the more they will fail.

This is why I don't buy into the rumours and people's hearsay. It's like any job. You hear horrible things about a manager that very few people have actually worked with, but seemingly everyone "knows" is bad at his job.

Syrskyi is just being scape-goated, ultimately, war-aims are shaped by political goals. It's not necessarily Syrskyi's fault if Zelensky's political goals are completely unrealistic. I mean this is the guy who genuinely seems to believe that the only way to end the war is to militarily kick Russians out of Crimea.

Good luck.
 

Fede_LV

New Member
Registered Member
This is why I don't buy into the rumours and people's hearsay. It's like any job. You hear horrible things about a manager that very few people have actually worked with, but seemingly everyone "knows" is bad at his job.

Syrskyi is just being scape-goated, ultimately, war-aims are shaped by political goals. It's not necessarily Syrskyi's fault if Zelensky's political goals are completely unrealistic. I mean this is the guy who genuinely seems to believe that the only way to end the war is to militarily kick Russians out of Crimea.

Good luck.
You can't kick some one out if that place belongs to it first.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
After two years of senseless violence I guess the war could be summarized thusly:

NATO in 2022: 10 million dollar Russian tanks and armored vehicles are being taken out by 500 dollar DJI drones. What a friggin joke.
Russia in 2023: 30 million dollar NATO assets are being taken out by 500 dollar DJI drones. What a friggin joke.
DJI: We are not an arms manufacturer. Please use our products responsibly.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
AFU MSTA-B howitzer gets taken out by a Lancet in Zaporozhye.

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Ukrainian BMP-1 gets taken out by FPV drone.

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Geran raid on Pavlograd, Dnipropetrovosk. Thermal power plant damaged. Pavlograd is the AFU'S main logistics hub, trains there feed the entire front to the east and south. Losing power affects the trains and other equipment.

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Missiles hitting Lubotin near Kharkov reported. More area are also being hit by missiles, these likely targeting deployment centers where AFU troops are housed prior to moving to the front.

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TOS at work on Kurahovo, DNR.

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Lancet hits a Bradley.

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AFU checkpoint and BMP hit by FPV drones and artillery from the VDV.

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RF Giatsint-S takes out an AFU Gvodika in counterbattery in the Kupyansk area.

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Near Chasiv Yar, Baba Yaga operators are tracked back to their nests, which is promptly treated with accurate arty hits. The arty looks more accurate than ever, explosions more impactful, the result of the new shells being introduced? Courtesy of the Sever-V special unit detachment.

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tankphobia

Senior Member
Registered Member
After two years of senseless violence I guess the war could be summarized thusly:

NATO in 2022: 10 million dollar Russian tanks and armored vehicles are being taken out by 500 dollar DJI drones. What a friggin joke.
Russia in 2023: 30 million dollar NATO assets are being taken out by 500 dollar DJI drones. What a friggin joke.
DJI: We are not an arms manufacturer. Please use our products responsibly.
It's basically a race to the bottom now. All the 'super weapons' did not change the outcome of the war in a day. Yet the smaller cheaper stuff that can be mass produced is doing good work

See here for footage of the vampire system working on a shahed, a rejigged hydra rocket costing less than 50k a piece.

 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Ukraine still has a defensive line with several cities. Sloviansk, Kramatorsk. A though nut to crack for sure. And entering the major Ukrainian cities like Kharkiv or Zaporizhzhia wouldn't be an easy job either. Assuming the Russians ever try to get into the major cities.


I kind of doubt it will completely end by 2025. At best they will end the major military operations. But at the current rate of progress using this level of resources it will take longer than that.


I wouldn't be too surprised either. Once Putin gets confirmation from the vote he could expand conscription to try to end the conflict sooner before more Western military aid arrives and the West actually manage to increase their own production. Regardless, Russia shouldn't take off the pressure as that would allow Ukraine to basically rearm itself.


They will just keep operating the F-16 in the Western part of the country. Unless Russia starts taking territory West of the Dnieper I think it will happen. And I wouldn't be surprised if at least some of the aircraft were operated by NATO pilots.


Russia needs to mitigate the disparity in terms of leading edge long distance fires and recon somehow. Automating the production of glide bomb kits and putting the glide kit for the FAB-1500 into serial production will be necessary. The US has been buying artillery shells from India, and should increase its own production in a year or two. Russia needs to address the gap in capabilities by then. Hence Shoigu's comment when he visited the plant which is supposed to be building the Koalitsiya on why weren't the first serial units delivered already. Right now the Russians have the Giatsint to keep up in range but it isn't enough.

You are still only thinking about this war in a purely military sphere whereas the real conflict has many more facets, many of which are arguably more important and pivotal.

You are correct that all of the fortresses cities and major population centres will be tough nuts to crack militarily, which is a major reason the Russians are in no real hurry to push to that phase.

They are happy enough to slow grind the Ukrainians in the open fields and trenches. And it’s not just Ukrainian lives they are grinding in the killing fields, but also NATO equipment and money.

NATO support and money was and is fundamental in allowing Ukraine to resist thus far, so Russian strategy is to erode and erase that support. Without it, it’s troops will be able to March into any and every Ukrainian city with minimal resistance and the SMO becomes a policing and counter insurgency exercise.
 
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