The War in the Ukraine

Hitomi

Junior Member
Registered Member
Only fighter in number and near replacement in NATO countries in Europe. So if they want fighters whatever the result they will bring.... it's what they can beg for.
I like to imagine there is a LockMart advertising team behind these calls as well so there are more F-35 sales to Europe eventually.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
While this current Ukrainian offensive is a total wet squib with heavy Ukrainian losses and little to show for it, one thing the Russians should know painfully well is how willing Ukrainian high command is at throwing away the lives of its soldiers to achieve their aims.

The Kharkiv breakthrough from last year was proceeded by the calamity at Kherson, where Ukrainian forces suffered heavy losses trying and failing to breech Russian lines.

My initial thoughts are that the current offensive looks very much like a repeat, with the Ukrainians putting troops into a Turkey shoot to try to lure the Russians into complacency when they make their main push.

The Nova Kakhovka dam may be a key part of the Ukrainian strategy as the timing of its destruction is too close to their offensive to be co-incidental.

The Russian lines facing the river are largely flooded and untenable, with upstream water levels also falling, that opens up multiple areas of opportunity for an amphibious assault. We also had reports from earlier months of Ukraine re-organising and expanding it’s marines and other amphibious capable units into a marine corps.

Makes me wonder if Ukraine might not be looking to launch a large scale amphibious assault to bypass much of the prepare Russian defences aimed to repeat their earlier success by advancing so fast and so far that they start threatening Russian artillery positions. When the Russian artillery is forced to withdraw to avoid being engaged, that opens up the front for Ukrainian tanks and armour to roll up the front line.

But unlikely last time, the Russians should be ready for such a move, and they also hard vastly more warm bodies manning the front. So it will be very interesting to see if the Ukrainians can pull off the same trick twice.
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
There is still a long period of warm weather left no? I personally think the Ukrainians can definitely sustain an offensive longer than 3 days from this point, maybe not across the entire front but its still too early to say which side has the last laugh on this offensive.

If the Russian strategy is still banking on attrition, they should not let this offensive run out of steam too fast.
Getting to the next agricultural field border is not enough, they need to capture good defendable locations to be able to continue advancing. The front is a waste land and most village are already levelled. Not a lot of high grounds with protection against gliding weapons...

Ukraine still have quite a number of troops to use but not sure that they will be able to bring result with brigade sized waves decimated on the long front line. The Russian didn't advance because these forces where waiting for them and now these forces are coming to them. With the force Ukraine have, concentrating their effort with a giant murder ball to pass through the south is probably the best chance they have. Without descent air support they can only hope that pressure and number will do the trick.
 

Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
Can somebody explain to me why the Ukrainian leadership has been pushing so hard for f-16s? Is it just a morale/propaganda thing to have them in the skies? Every remotely credible military analyst I've seen, including pro Ukraine ones, have repeatedly said it would make basically zero difference since Russian air defenses would force them to fly absurdly low to get close, and even then they would be in serious danger.
For starters, they need anything maintainable.
Right now they're flying migs from scrapyard. You can get flights from airframes beyond their designed life, quite a lot even, but ultimately you won't be able to fool material science. The war is more than a year long.

That's before we even start talking about VKS-associated losses.
 
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