The War in the Ukraine

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Ukraine is claiming what many have suspected that the Russian offensive has already started.

Security Council Secretary: Russians have started "huge offensive", but have huge problems with it​

-Oleksii Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council, said that the Russians have started their "huge offensive", but the invaders are having "huge problems" with it.

Source: Danilov on the air of the 24/7 national joint newscast

Quote: "They have huge problems with the huge offensive. They have started their offensive, they just don't say that they have started it, and our troops are repelling it very successfully. The offensive they planned is already gradually beginning. But not the [kind of – ed.] offensive they were expecting."

Details: Commenting on the statement of the deputy head of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Vershinin, that Russia is allegedly ready for negotiations with Ukraine without preconditions, taking into account the goals of the Russian Federation and the existing reality, the Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council noted that the Russians are trying to implement the project Second Ukraine.


"As for the proposal of this guy from Moscow, they currently have a project called Second Ukraine; they are resuscitating political technologists who worked during Yanukovych's time, headed some institutes; they are starting their dirty work on the territory of our country today, to force us into a situation of, let’s say, the two Koreas, in 1957 along the 38th parallel... [a circle of latitude that was used as the pre-Korean War boundary, now a border between the Koreas – ed.] Some of the Party of Regions, and then the Oppositional Platform – For Life [a Ukrainian pro-Russian faction – ed.], who are abroad... in Monaco, they are accompanying it, making contact. There won’t be a second Ukraine, there will be one big country," Danilov said.

If true that this is Russia's offensive then its start has been abysmal and they could be in huge trouble come late spring when Ukraine's supposed counter offensive begins. After 6 months it looks like Russian may finally take Bakhmut with a possible Ukraine withdrawal but they won't be able to hold it if the supposed Ukraine offensive takes place.

What is happening to Russian forces in Vuhledar is likely the reason they believe the Russian offensive has begun with dozens (proven on video) of Russian armored vehicles and tanks destroyed in a 1-2 week span.

Krasnaya Gora is under Wagner control, confirmed from both side and marked as such by both Rybar and Suriyak.

Temstar said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1624525134127149056

Krasnaya Gora is under Wagner control, confirmed from both side and marked as such by both Rybar and Suriyak.

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Where is the second line of defence after Bakhmut ? Not a lot of good places to put defences before Kramatorsk Slovyansk Pokrovsky line... lot of ground to ride to get in another large settlement.

Beside Helicopters going in and out of Bakhmut area in the last days supposedly pulling out western mercenaries and command staff, no convoy filmed pulling out of there at all, just sporadic troops walking out in small groups on video.

Even talk about reinforcement coming from Lyman being moved to Kramatorsk to be sent to Bakhmut. Maybe they will not be able to reinforce soon...All roads will be cut pretty soon.

Forgive me if this has already been mentioned. From two days ago:

“It was never intended to be weaponized, but the Ukrainians have leveraged it in ways that were unintentional and not part of any agreement,” SpaceX President

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said at a Federal Aviation Administration conference in Washington on Wednesday. “We know the military is using them for comms, and that’s OK. But our intent was never to have them use it for offensive purposes.”

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The president did not provide details on how they would limit Starlink use to "humanitarian purposes" only. Any ideas on what prompted this? They must have known, Ukraine has been using Starlink drone guidance for months.

Ukraine's response:

luminary said:

Forgive me if this has already been mentioned. From two days ago:

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The president did not provide details on how they would limit Starlink use to "humanitarian purposes" only. Any ideas on what prompted this? They must have known, Ukraine has been using Starlink drone guidance for months.

Click to expand...

It’s probably financial reasons. Chances are that Russian countermoves in Ukraine are hitting there balance sheet a lot more than they prefer. SpaceX wouldn’t be coming out about “humanitarian” reasons if it was profitable or just break even. Tho it could just be as likely to get the US to fork over more cash to continue.

Ukrainian leadership is claiming that the offensive 'started'. However this is not necessarily the case.

Russia has done a lot of limited shaping/preliminary actions over the past 2 weeks.

On the left wing of Z-Oblast they have small confirmed advances, on a broad front towards the city of Orichiv.

On the right wing of Z-Oblast they tried to take Ugledar but have been stymied by Ukrainian reserves, moved into the area. The tactical defeat, which stopped their advance into the city has been used by Ukrainian propaganda and has been a source of frustration for Russian mili-bloggers, including Rybar.

The opening of Z-Oblast front has overall increased Ukrainian forces in the area as they shifted reserves over.

In the battle of Bakhmut the Ukrainian situation has been slowly worsening on a daily basis and I think it can be said that Ukraine, unless they pull of some strong counterattacks or Wagner gets stuck, is losing.

In the Kharkiv' Axis, they have created a small salient that opens up opportunities. The initiative has passed over to Russia on the Svatove -Kremmina Axis. This can be seen on maps, a very glacial advance between Jan 15th to today. But overall it's still an advance. There is bulge from the Kremmina salient protruding towards Lyman.

This bulge and Wagner northern front shows the developing Siversk pocket.

Ukraine by their own General Staff admission (Militaryland maps) has approx 80 brigades or brigade sized equivalents on the front right now. Wagner is tying down approx 24 brigades, or 30% of the Ukrainian forces at the front.

The recent 100 missile strike seems to have been more damaging than usual to Ukrainian infrastructure.

There was an attack today on Snake Island by RuAF Su-24's



Also Russia seemed to start using sea drones as a bridge in Odessa was hit during the night

The Ukranians have less means to deal with the threat of sea-borne drones though they also lack HVT that could be affected this way as the Ukranian Navy is mostly non-existant at this point.

Footage coming out of Vuhledar is showing a large amount of Russian armored assets being destroyed. Compared to Bakhmut front it seems that this is actually Russian regulars as they aren't using mass infantry assualts, but are rather using a large amount of mechanised infantry.

Below is like one of the few videos with no visible Russian casualties for an example of the level of losses that Russia is sustaining in this direction.

We also have footage of the first destroyed BMP-T, not that surprising since it's just a anti infantry tank, appears to be damaged, disabled and abandoned prior to destruction.

From the amount of hardware involved this far, it looks like Russia is throwing the kitchen sink into this winter offensive, it remains to be seen whether Russian regulars will be more successful than Wagner.

Looking for guidance/advice, where else on the web do members go to for reasonably neutral updates/news?