The War in the Ukraine

S

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
drowingfish said:
so an offer of surrender would take away any public support Putin enjoys for the war, he will have no choice. regardless it doesnt really matter because no way ukraine would accept that.
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Hard to sell that idea to the Russian public when their own politicians are calling them subhuman asiatic hordes, culturally prone to rape and murder on mass media with little to no push back.

It will just reinforce their siege mentality.

drowingfish said:
regardless it doesnt really matter because no way ukraine would accept that.
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Ukraine will accept whatever the Wests tells them to accept.
 
B

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
kokole said:
I found the Washington Post article. The article says nothing specific about the four regions, only about Crimea :

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This is pretty much straight from the horse's mouth what I've been saying is the main reason Russia doesn't try to blitz far into Ukraine or commit the entire armed forces.

Of course Blinken claims its a "misplaced" fear that NATO will roll into Ukraine, but we all know how trustworthy US is. And the truth is, US does not fear Russian nukes. China and the USSR didn't fear US nukes when they rolled into countries which US was trying to invade to expel the Americans. Why would US be afraid of Russian nukes when they roll into Ukraine to counter the Russians?

The only reason US doesn't do that is because, as Blinken himself says, there are Russian capabilities held in reserve for that scenario.

If US goes in but it turns into a stalemate, things get extremely terrible for America, as Russia will start conscription and get flooded with modern arms.

To make a NATO intervention worth it, they must defeat Russian forces within an extremely short time span. It may also have to invade and defeat Belarus during this period.

If Russia had chosen to focus on land capturing blitzes using its full air force and most of its army, while Ukranians by the instruction of NATO merely retreats while conserving their strength, then such a scenario of rapid victory against Russians which will be far too overstretched to deal with a sudden counterpush by additional 200k-400k US forces becomes possible if not likely.

But if Russia doesn't advance and let Ukraine go to them, while holding VKS in reserve and fortifying areas that will be able to stalemate a whole new army suddenly arriving, the risk of US gambling that they can win quickly with a full attack becomes much lower.
 
baykalov

baykalov

Senior Member
Registered Member
A Swede (Kenneth Gregg) who is somewhere in Baкhmut on the Ukrainian side posted today his theories on what will happen to Baкhmut.

According to him and to his regret, Baкhmut will be abandoned in two weeks. At the moment the situation is not favourable for the AFU, but this will change when the new weapons and F-16s arrive. This will change the game completely and Ukraine will be liberated by the end of the summer.

Automatic translation from Swedish:

o.r.c.e.r.n.a = оrcs
Update 31.01.2023, today we especially treat the Bakhmut and Kreminna area. On the bada front section, o.r.c.e.r.n.a. has strengthened with several divisions. I dare to claim that they have started their offensive that aims to have taken all of Luhansk and Donbas before 24.02.2023, ie an anniversary gift to m. A. s.t.a.r. o.r.c.e.n. himself. Now this will not work but let's take it step by step.

Unfortunately, Bakhmut will probably be abandoned within 2 weeks. Today I have visited the area, spoke to people from the International Legion, people from relief organizations and the facts of Chasiv Yar evacuation and troop transfers speak for this. The conquest of the nearby areas of Bakhmut, crossing the first channel north east of the city and attempting to break the maintenance road north east of Stupochyne (and thus threatening Chasiv Yar) speaks its own language. Our new line of defense will probably be Konstiantynivka-Mykolaivka-Chasiv Yar-Markove-Vasiukivka-Pereizne-Siversk. The lede fi has also already understood this and now has the attack vector from Soledar against Pereizne. The fire station, the hospital and the intense persuasion to evacuate the last civilians from Bakhmut indicate a combat model like the Severodonetsk case, i.e. our tactics are to knock out as many of the enemy as possible. Chasiv Yar has also been under artillery attacks and also helicopter attacks today. The mayor has called for immediate evacuation. The city is ideal for us to defend because it is located high up on a hill.

At Kreminna, as I have previously updated, the enemy has also deployed large reinforcements. The lede fi has also started a major counterattack here, which is currently having partial success. If we cannot take Kreminna, Bilohovrika becomes a new Bakhmut. Since the enemy has taken Soledar with the surroundings, it causes great concern for Bilohovrika. I wouldn't be surprised if we retreat to the Dronivka-Sieversk-Pereitzne line to build an offensive force with the new Western weapons.

Regarding Vuhledar, it has continued to become easier, the new artillery reinforcements have done their thing.
This now looks like a bleak report but last and final it is not. With this tactic, it is greatly thinned among tourists and since their new mobilization has not yet begun, we are able to get in the new weapons, get our offensive strength in order and the weather can be in our favor. Overall, I maintain that we end the war by midsummer. WHEN we receive our F-16s, the game on how to deliver them to us has already started, air domination will be crucial.

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S

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
Just reached the end of the interview.

By the end the guy says that Bradleys, Abrams and whathave you won't make a difference if you have the same guys who would throw companies of soldiers against Russian positions for no reason still in command, they will just do the exact same thing with the tanks and get obliterated by artillery.

Also mentions corruption is so bad you'd see soldiers with high tech stuff manning checkpoints in Lviv and equipment getting shittier the further East you went and the closer you got to the front with soldiers getting ill fitting helmets, no body armor, old AK's. Host then mentions riding with a group that had received 1.7 million dollars in donations and only delivered a box of gloves and iodine pills to a front line unit.

By the end, they talk about people who refuse to fight in this conditions and outright admit that at best, you get sent to jail and at worst, they will point a gun at you and either force you to march toward Russian lines or shoot you on the spot.
 
Temstar

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
sheogorath said:
Just reached the end of the interview.

By the end the guy says that Bradleys, Abrams and whathave you won't make a difference if you have the same guys who would throw companies of soldiers against Russian positions for no reason still in command, they will just do the exact same thing with the tanks and get obliterated by artillery.

Also mentions corruption is so bad you'd see soldiers with high tech stuff manning checkpoints in Lviv and equipment getting shittier the further East you went and the closer you got to the front with soldiers getting ill fitting helmets, no body armor, old AK's. Host then mentions riding with a group that had received 1.7 million dollars in donations and only delivered a box of gloves and iodine pills to a front line unit.

By the end, they talk about people who refuse to fight in this conditions and outright admit that at best, you get sent to jail and at worst, they will point a gun at you and either force you to march toward Russian lines or shoot you on the spot.
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If Kiev decide to hold the line by spending lives and wait to collect all that 300+ tanks and all the IFVs together and wait for a good moment to use them in a concentrated push it will do a lot of damage. This isn't a strategy with no risk though because by the time they have all that armour ready there may be no more Ukrainians to man them judging by how ugly mobilisation is getting.

But you just know the Ukrainians will be spending those tanks and IFVs in piecemeal fashion to plug existing holes in their line. That's their MO since the start of the war and it's not helped by the trickle manner that these vehicle are being delivered. We might see the first destroyed Bradley on the ground in as short as 2 weeks from now.

That's why if you're hoping for Kursk 2.0 and eager to see Leo 2 and T-90M duke it out en masse over open field it's extremely unlikely to happen. If used in piecemeal fashion then well Russians aren't running out of Kornet.
 
T

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
abc123 said:
Yeah, I thought so too. But, after reality check- I'm not ashamed to say that I learned a thing or two about Russia and it's capabilities. Why most people on this forum still has such inflated opinion on Russia- it's beyond my comprehension.

About the facts- US during the Gulf War defeated Iraq by using 3 armoured, 2 mechanised, 2 airborne and 2 marine divisions. How many divisions used Russia in 2022 not to defeat Ukraine?
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In contrast, if those rumors are true, the Ukrainians have already lost more than 3 US Vietnam War worth of casualties in less than a year. The Vietnam War lasted like 12 years. That's unpredecented in modern military history.
 
A

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
sheogorath said:
Full interview:

Interesting bit around the 12:00 mark, dude mentions he has a problem about the talk around the Kherson offensive because the Russians were able to pull out, which is a problem as opposed if the Ukranians had destroyed the Russian units and that the Ukranians have been very bad at persuing retreating units.
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The interesting bit about this podcast is the admission that the Ukrainians are being slaughtered, the rest isn't insightful at all.

He's basically saying the Ukrainian army needs to be more like the American army to win, and the only reason why they aren't is "corruption". Brilliant thinking soldier, I can't believe no one thought of that before. Now get back to digging that trench....
 
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