The deal doesn’t solve the conflict. It kicks the can down the road after Trump leaves office in 3 years. Ukraine will simply rearm, rebuild new fortifications, and train soldiers for the next conflict while Putin enjoys his empty US promises. Securing ~3 years of the illusion of peace so everyone can go back to another long Ukraine war under a future US president.
The limitation being 600,000 in size which is approximately about as many Russian soldiers in Ukraine and a bit lower than the Ukrainian Army was in 2022 pre-conflict. If anything that is an major Russian concession.
While on the face of it, it might look like a bad deal for Russia, but in reality it’s actually a potentially interesting play.
Of course the US and rest of NATO will want to re-arm Ukraine. But can they?
Minsk 2 only worked out to Ukraine’s advantage because the US and EU supplied them from their existing Cold War left over weapons stocks. Those weapons and munitions stocks are now utterly depleted and western arms manufacturing output is pitifully slow. And that’s before Chinese RE chokehold kicked in.
With Minsk 3.0 in effect, Russia can buy Chinese arms in whatever quantities they want, China will be happy to also throw in ToT and production lines into the deal.
In 3 years time, Ukraine might add a few hundred tanks and fighters to its inventory, while Russia can have a full new army and air force that can take on NATO directly rather than just Ukraine.
If Putin does swallow this peace deal, it means he is taking the big picture approach to trade short term concessions to buying time to re-equip for WWIII so that Russia can be the Russia of WWII again rather than Italy.