Roger604 said:
Where was the PLA in 1995?
In 1995, it was just beginning to modernize. In many ways, it was equivalent to western late 70's technology. But now, it's about mid-90's.
The PLA closed the gap between it and the west by 20 years in 10!
Where will the PLA be in 2015?
Right now it's mid-90's in western technology. Between 2005 and 2015 it will close the gap with the west by another 20 years -- which means it will be 2015 vs. 2015.
I expect 5th generation stealth fighters regiments, a stealth bomber prototype, nuclear submarines as good as the seawolf, tons of diesel electric subs, at least 3 CVBG's, a global constellation of satellites, unmanned aerial/underwater/ground vehicles.
Simply put.... an appropriate force for a country with an economy the same size as the United States.
(Of course, this all assumes the economy continues to boom at around 9-10%.)
I would be more than happy to see PLA reach US's current level (2006) by the end of 2015, which means
A stealth fighter regiment, like the US F22 squadron in Langley AFB 2006
A stealth bomber prototype should be acheivable in 10 years frame.
Nuclear submarines as good as seawolf? Too optimistic, I would be happy to see some thing comparable to 688I and close to Seawolf come out by 2015
At least 3 CVBG's, one CVBG likely, three are impossible. Let's assume China
starts to build its first CV now, it will at least take 4 years to finish the construction, then at least another 6 years for training and forming a combat
ready CVBG. That will be already 2015.
a global constellation of satellites, probably. China seems is capably doing it now. In 10 years frame, if China sees the necessity to have them, they can build them.
unmanned aerial vehicles, are you suggesting unmanned combat planes, such as fighters? I don't think China can have this kind of vehicle in 10 years. In 10 years, even US may only achieve something demostratable in this area.
