The Kashmir conflict 2025.

Proton said:

Pakistan is a state held together by strings, simply taking a beating would greatly undermine its legitimacy and could make the entire thing unravel.
Winning a war against India is exactly what Pakistan needs to solidify its statehood, and as dangerous - and to some extent utterly insane - this may be; it could very well be the only viable course of action as India will no doubt continue to seek the demise of Pakistan. It all comes down to how much support Pakistan can get from China. And while India may have the blessing of the US/NATO, at the very least they aren't currently in a strong position of aiding India.

For China, finding a reason to turbocharge its military industrial complex isn't necessarily a negative.

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I'm partial to the cope theory that if India is humiliated too hard, all sides lose.

Actually doing painful reforms that gives them long term benefits.
HAL being not useless in 20 years,
Maybe swallow their pride and get F-35s somehow.
or other major geopolitical realignments etc.

Status quo here means they learn little yet again once the shame of losing a shiny Rafale in a blotched op goes away.
2019 on repeat.

ismellcopium said:

They launched a single feeble "retaliation" that barely seems to have inflicted any damage, in response to days of relentless Indian attacks including an initial unprovoked terror bombing that killed dozens of civilians who they initially swore to "avenge", but ok buddy.

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Lmao and what was the alternative? Wasting hundreds of strike munitions that Pakistan already doesn't have many of? A ground invasion? Nukes? It was known well in advance of this conflict that India would have escalation dominance if the conflict came down to hurling munitions across the border, simply due to the size of their stockpiles. The fact that the conflict appears it has ended without large civilian casualties is objectively a good thing for the stability of the region.

lube said:

I'm partial to the cope theory that if India is humiliated too hard, all sides lose.

Actually doing painful reforms that gives them long term benefits.
HAL being not useless in 20 years,
Maybe swallow their pride and get F-35s somehow.
or other major geopolitical realignments etc.

Status quo here means they learn little yet again once the shame of losing a shiny Rafale in a blotched op goes away.
2019 on repeat.

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You know its times like this, we should actually glad India is so delusional. They can believe whatever crap they want on how its a glorious victory as long as they sign the dotted line for a ceasefire right now.

They're gonna find a way to spin they somehow won one way or another. Why not use it to get the most of your advantage right now before you lose it all?

So if i do the math , just for me, so far
India lost rafales, not sure if pilots are dead or alive
India does not want anymore fried aircrafts, take them out of equation, launches some drones missiles at some pak air bases, some craters, 1 C130
Then pak launces some drones, missiles... and india is like "we want ceasefire, operation sindoor over"!!

AndrewJ said:

Is there a possibility that India cuts off the Internet today? So fewer visuals leaked & less evidence?

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That would work only in very remote locations (else it will immediately be reported in news) and even then it will merely postpone it. Once power's back on, it's over.

Secondly, you guys are forgetting that these things aren't dependent on civilians. India published footage of the initial strikes themselves. PAF is certainly capable of taking photos of their target. They haven't released even a single target. All we got was that clip of a JF-17 taking off with a certain weapons package. Apparently we are supposed to believe that PAF destroyed an S-400 battery from that alone. Come on.

AndrewJ said:

We should admit, for the Indian side, Trump has a much better position than China, due to current US-India trade war negotiations, China's support to Pakistan, etc.

After India announced de-escalation, China may directly tell Paki to de-escalate too. That's what happened behind the scenes today. Of course, US also talked to Paki today. But I think Paki would more refer to China's advice.

Will China announce its effort in the ceasefire deal, to neutralize Trump's claims? Let's wait and see.

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You're treating India and Pakistan as controllable proxies.
Neither is one. Try to push either this way - China will lose an ally, and you'll find India openly supplying shells to Russia next morning.
If they decided to deescalate - it's because both sides expressed their dissatisfaction through throwing things at each other, and there's nothing to gain from further escalation.

Is it the last bloody terrorist/rebel attack on either side of the border? No. Can anything be done about that? No.

ying1978 said:

Xi was in Moscow during the entirety of this conflict

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Why do these sort of things often happen or closely after when Xi is in Moscow or Putin is in Beijing for some big event.

totenchan said:

Lmao and what was the alternative? Wasting hundreds of strike munitions that Pakistan already doesn't have many of? A ground invasion? Nukes? It was known well in advance of this conflict that India would have escalation dominance if the conflict came down to hurling munitions across the border, simply due to the size of their stockpiles. The fact that the conflict appears it has ended without large civilian casualties is objectively a good thing for the stability of the region.

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Being too scared to retaliate because of things like that just invites further Indian aggression in the future. Numerous red lines were crossed by India for the first time in decades this crisis, and they've shown they're too scared to do much about it, somehow despite a confidence boosting showing by the PAF. This conflict will inevitably flare up again within a couple years at most the next time there's a terror attack or something of that sort, when both sides have even larger nuclear arsenals, so we'll see what happens then. My guess is, due to the relative Pakistani inaction this time, India is emboldened to greater action which starts off from a more dangerous position than if the current crisis had just been allowed to escalate more.

.

N00B said:

That would work only in very remote locations (else it will immediately be reported in news) and even then it will merely postpone it. Once power's back on, it's over.

Secondly, you guys are forgetting that these things aren't dependent on civilians. India published footage of the initial strikes themselves. PAF is certainly capable of taking photos of their target. They haven't released even a single target. All we got was that clip of a JF-17 taking off with a certain weapons package. Apparently we are supposed to believe that PAF destroyed an S-400 battery from that alone. Come on.

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Plenty of footage of various places burning in today morning's PK strike including airbases and weapons depos (including Brahmos).

AndrewJ said:

We should admit, for the Indian side, Trump has a much better position than China, due to current US-India trade war negotiations, China's support to Pakistan, etc.

After India announced de-escalation, China may directly tell Paki to de-escalate too. That's what happened behind the scenes today. Of course, US also talked to Paki today. But I think Paki would more refer to China's advice.

Will China announce its effort in the ceasefire deal, to neutralize Trump's claims? Let's wait and see.

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You are discounting the Saudi involvement. Pakistan can ignore USA, but Saudis carry a lot of weight in Pakistan.