Super unlikely. The ROCA is the most heavily penetrated military in the entire world. The CMC will know its capabilities and what it's planning faster than Lai Ching-te does. And everyone in Taiwan knows this, so there's no point in hiding their capabilities.
Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.
- Thread starter Gollevainen
- Start date
If only Lai Chingte actually considered himself the leader and a citizen of the ROC: that could save a lot of lives, maybe even his own.
Looks like this fine, yet treacherous tradition of the ROC, which you kindly highlighted, burns bright despite Mr. Lai's supposed hold on a democratic mandate, which the late Chiang Kaishek arguably lacked:
There's obviously something wrong with Mr. Lai, but he wouldn't be occupying his current post if he was an idiot in totality. As such, after , it's unsurprising his office would be compelled to dial up security, even if it presented the state of local political-military relations in an awkward, if not embarrassing and dysfunctional light.
More recently, :
The emergence of these cases* and others tell us that the PLA and MSS' attack surface against Mr. Lai, Mr. Wu and their separatist co-conspirators continues to expand, and will allow the CMC to select from a multitude of vectors should they wish to initiate decapitation strikes against separatist leadership.
Though an alternative approach would be to transfer the prosecution of such targets to the MPS, where they can be remedied like common criminals with bounties placed on their heads. Such an alternative approach would moreover create a mechanism for continuously destabilizing the current regime governing Taiwan, especially should the bounties be sizable enough to incentivize wave after wave of .
With the right incentives, it should not take long before one such campaign succeeds in bringing Lai and company to justice!
*Unless the regime governing Taiwan intends to erect cultural, digital, economic, political and physical firewalls between its population and the broader world (i.e. go North Korean), at their current level of penetration, local CI campaigns against adversarial HUMINT collection will effectively represent Sisyphean exercises.
I applaud your humility, as well as your desire to examine an unreasonable world through a reasonable lens, even if it is probably more than what this timeline deserves.
The regime currently governing Taiwan doesn't care what "regular folks" like you think, know or see.
Their principal, if not only objective here is to convince American political elites, in particular one Donald Trump, that Americans should fight and die to preserve their rule.
Sun Tzu also wrote:
Or in English:
What is perhaps most tragic about the DPP politicians currently governing Taiwan is that most of them don't in fact even know who they really are, and may very well lose their lives as a result.
I wouldn't count on such individuals to be learned pupils, never mind competent practitioners of Sun Tzu's timeless teachings.
"most heavily penetrated ...military in the entire world"-has an Only Fans/Pornhub ring to it.But I do fervently hope that a TW AR will end in a bloodless whimper and a cheer and a sigh of relief on both sides of the strait and not in a bang.
What I’m trying to say is yes while it’s mostly propaganda, it does give you insights into their training and what they think is the most important things to defend even though the CMC knows that stuff it doesn’t mean regular folks know as wellIf only Lai Chingte actually considered himself the leader and a citizen of the ROC: that could save a lot of lives, maybe even his own.
Looks like this fine, yet treacherous tradition of the ROC, which you kindly highlighted, burns bright despite Mr. Lai's supposed hold on a democratic mandate, which the late Chiang Kaishek arguably lacked:
There's obviously something wrong with Mr. Lai, but he wouldn't be occupying his current post if he was an idiot in totality. As such, after , it's unsurprising his office would be compelled to dial up security, even if it presented the state of local political-military relations in an awkward, if not embarrassing and dysfunctional light.
More recently, :
The emergence of these cases* and others tell us that the PLA and MSS' attack surface against Mr. Lai, Mr. Wu and their separatist co-conspirators continues to expand, and will allow the CMC to select from a multitude of vectors should they wish to initiate decapitation strikes against separatist leadership.
Though an alternative approach would be to transfer the prosecution of such targets to the MPS, where they can be remedied like common criminals with bounties placed on their heads. Such an alternative approach would moreover create a mechanism for continuously destabilizing the current regime governing Taiwan, especially should the bounties be sizable enough to incentivize wave after wave of .
With the right incentives, it should not take long before one such campaign succeeds in bringing Lai and company to justice!
*Unless the regime governing Taiwan intends to erect cultural, digital, economic, political and physical firewalls between its population and the broader world (i.e. go North Korean), at their current level of penetration, local CI campaigns against adversarial HUMINT collection will effectively represent Sisyphean exercises.
I applaud your humility, as well as your desire to examine an unreasonable world through a reasonable lens, even if it is probably more than what this timeline deserves.
The regime currently governing Taiwan doesn't care what "regular folks" like you think, know or see.
Their principal, if not only objective here is to convince American political elites, in particular one Donald Trump, that Americans should fight and die to preserve their rule.
Sun Tzu also wrote:
Or in English:
What is perhaps most tragic about the DPP politicians currently governing Taiwan is that most of them don't in fact even know who they really are, and may very well lose their lives as a result.
I wouldn't count on such individuals to be learned pupils, never mind competent practitioners of Sun Tzu's timeless teachings
What you said is most likely the case, but the planning should be ob the side of caution.
I used to think Ukrainians are also western worshipping c*cks who will flee when actual battle starts. But look what happened. They have become so deluded and hatred for Russia has implanted in their hearts so much that they are willing to do so much sacrifice just to be part of the west.
Look at hong kongers giving up lucrative careers back home to work as burger flippers in UK for no reason other than politics.
I don't think DPP diehards will give up that easily. For them, US is heaven and China is hell. Plus they have been fed propaganda that all they have to do is hold on just a bit longer and US will rescue them. This hope will sustain their fight for long periods.
Ukrainians still have hope that just a little bit more time and Nato will join in the fighting.
So, I think China needs to think about the worst case which is urban guerilla fighting in Taiwan.
The PLA has a great deal of clarity on what targets must be disrupted, degraded and destroyed to seize control of the island of Taiwan. In fact, there should not be significant deviations between PLA targeting priorities and local separatist defensive priorities.
You might want to take a look at the 2020 RAND research report titled "" or even dive directly into the Chinese works cited, assuming your Chinese is better than mine. You may find page 10 especially interesting, if you want to know what's going to get hit first, and what local separatist forces will want to defend most:
Jeffrey Engstrom's 2018 RAND research report titled "" may interest you as well, but it's denser, and a little more outdated.
Theres 2 ways for that to happen though.
1. Develop mainland more by taking a greater and greater share of value. To get higher GDP per capita than Taiwan, mainland China needs a greater share of global GDP. How much greater? Entire world outside US has $70 trillion GDP. To get 35k USD GDP per capita, China must control 70% of the entire world's GDP outside the US.
That is, China must control the entire EU, Japan, India, Africa and ASEAN and take every last bit of value from them, bring it all back to China and leave them with nothing.
2. Reduce Taiwan's GDP per capita by a combination of sanctions and kinetic strikes.
Option 1 requires defeating the entire world in WW3 and taking everything away from billions of people in an occupation.
Option 2 doesn't even require a total defeat of Taiwan alone.
If we think about this a bit we will see that the more richer, technologically advanced China gets, the more poorer the west including US will get.
Cause whatever US and Europe sells to the world that is valuable, such as advanced software, chips, planes, complex machine tools pretty much everything, China should be able to make all of these with sufficient time in the next decade or two.
So, Chinese companies will take away more and more market share from US and European companies. This will cause layoffs, economic stagnation and even decline in the west.
So, China gets richer and gets greater share of the global GDP, US gets poorer and comes down. Taiwan also massively lose GDP once Chinese chip industry takes off. I expect Taiwan to lose most of their Chip business as that happens.
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You guys talk a lot about the Han Kuang but how about the civil defence drills? From what I read the ROC preparedness in this aspect is also not great (basically they have a lot of that are not suitable for a prolonged stays, especially given the local climate). On the other hand, this year's civil defence drill has usefulness to it right? Although it is mostly quite short, at least it could make people take civil defence more seriously and could highlight some of its shortcomings. That makes me think the drills are more than just a show, or would you say otherwise?
They can use financial tools to stop that. See US skyrocketing GDP per capita even as their hard power declines.