Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.


gelgoog

Captain
Registered Member
...
Ask Congressional Research Service to Conduct a Study of US War Termination Behavior. The focus of this testimony is on the political and strategic factors influencing Chinese decision-making. While avoiding conflict is an important objective, ensuring that any war that does break out is as short and limited in violence as possible (and the US wins) is equally important. The US has a historical tendency toward mission creep and maximalist demands that undercut these goals. If a war breaks out over Taiwan, the United States needs to be prepared to return to the status quo antebellum, even if militarily victorious. If the US demands Taiwan independence after a military victory, we will be stuck fighting China for decades or Beijing will escalate to levels of violence we are unwilling to match or absorb.

These people are idiots. If two nuclear weapon states fought like that the result wouldn't be anyone's victory. What do they think this is, Iraq or Libya? Cities would be glassed. And not just in China.

No, the US would just acquiesce and at most make economic sanctions. Just look at what happened with Georgia and Crimea.
 

EtherealSmoke

New Member
Registered Member
These people are idiots. If two nuclear weapon states fought like that the result wouldn't be anyone's victory. What do they think this is, Iraq or Libya? Cities would be glassed. And not just in China.

No, the US would just acquiesce and at most make economic sanctions. Just look at what happened with Georgia and Crimea.
I think that quote is a revealing point and highlights the key American fear - military escalation over Taiwan.

The analyst echoes what I think is clear. China has absolute escalation dominance in regards to Taiwan.

I mean, am I missing something here? I’ve read a bit of the thread, and there’s a lot of rhetoric on Taiwanese independence and American intervention.

Militarily, American intervention is posturing and a bluff. The Americans would certainly prefer to fight a limited war to realize Taiwan independence. However, how would they keep it limited when they are afraid to escalate?

It seems to me any movement on Taiwan leads to a Cuban Missile Crisis like scenario - this time with the Chinese in place of the Americans.

I think under the current backdrop, the Americans are reevaluating all policies, including on Taiwan, as they realize China will surpass the United States given the status quo. Militarily, I don’t see how the Chinese can be defeated over Taiwan if the Chinese choose not to back down. Instead, the Americans may be looking at sacrificing Taiwan for second-order damage against China e.g. sanctions and international isolation.
 

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