The US attempt to alleviate indifferences between states subject to access is to create regional consensus on the Chinese threat.
South China Sea Strategies for other nations (Not China)
- Thread starter PanAsian
- Start date
Yes BUT we must not insult the intelligence of their leaders (except for Marcos of course, his situation is very special
) The Chinese are their neighbor and everybody want a peaceful neighborhood, plus there are a regional dynamics as well, the US apply the strategy of divide and conquer, what will they do if one of his/her vassal fought each other.
I totally agree. However, we should not underestimate the ability of the US to obtain this consensus through intrigue and discord between the states of the region towards China, in fact, this is already happening strongly through the Philippines and now the next vassal will be Taiwan to create this discord and climbing in the region.Yes BUT we must not insult the intelligence of their leaders (except for Marcos of course, his situation is very special
I agree, the American don't want a return of Duterte or one of his kind in power, that is why Marcos and his minnions are trying to close down a TV station that is not own by the oligarch elite and are very critical of his policy. Plus they are trying to discredit his VP, a Duterte and allowing the ICC to visit Manila.
Dec 12, 2023 — A House panel questioned the partnership of broadcasting company Sonshine Media Network International (SMNI) with state-run Chinese Global TV ...
Dec 12, 2023 — Ramon Rodrigo Gutierrez has filed House Bill 9710 revoking the franchise of Swara Sug Media Corporation, which operates under the business name ...
Nov 23, 2023 — Recently, talk has been rife of moves to impeach Vice President Sara Duterte amid what looks like a growing rift between the camp of Mr.
Nov 22, 2023 — THE political underground is bubbling with so much talk about the supposedly 'coming' impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte.
Videos
4 days ago — MANILA, Jan 23 (Reuters) - The Philippine government will not cooperate with the International Criminal Court's (ICC) investigation into a ...
The American are trying its best to bolster the local deep state like the military, the oligarchs, the judiciary and legislative institution that was destroy by Duterte Legacy. But they are making a huge mistake by intervening, we had woken up and Marcos huge election victory are due to Duterte influence, once given can also be taken and that make Marcos nervous as 2025 election approach and the Elder Duterte may stage a comeback.
Japan will for sure join because it's an existentialist question for present day Japan (at least politically). SK will join due to US control of the CFC.
Philippines and India is hard to predict. I think the Philippines aids in minor ways - with the US being unsatisfied with their involvement. India will only join if China starts to show weakness. A second front in the west is a death sentence for any Chinese military conflict and America and India recognizes that. India won't dare start something if China looks strong, but if China looks weak they will move swiftly into war. Then again Pakistan might get involved too, which may cause India to hesitate.
Singapore and Indonesia won't join at all. Singapore will sit on the sidelines until a winner becomes clear. Indonesia will take this opportunity to gain influence by remaining neutral.
Imo it will be China vs USA/Japan/SK/Australia/UK. India and Philippines dipping their toes in to help. Everyone else stays neutral.
Philippines and India is hard to predict. I think the Philippines aids in minor ways - with the US being unsatisfied with their involvement. India will only join if China starts to show weakness. A second front in the west is a death sentence for any Chinese military conflict and America and India recognizes that. India won't dare start something if China looks strong, but if China looks weak they will move swiftly into war. Then again Pakistan might get involved too, which may cause India to hesitate.
Singapore and Indonesia won't join at all. Singapore will sit on the sidelines until a winner becomes clear. Indonesia will take this opportunity to gain influence by remaining neutral.
Imo it will be China vs USA/Japan/SK/Australia/UK. India and Philippines dipping their toes in to help. Everyone else stays neutral.
It's US vs China, mano e mano, the rest is a side show, SK will be neutralized by NK, Japan is so afraid of Russia that they pissed on their pants thinking about the bear. Australia with what army? India? well they have Pakistan to dwell with, so all of this coalition of the willing are a mirage. Just look at the red sea crisis only tiny and irrelevant UK (because its not their neighborhood) join contributing a tiny portion of the munition expended, Its all about projection.
And also China had friends and allies, the Chinese are the bedrock of resistance against the Western imperialist. Russia, Iran, Pakistan, NK, Brazil, Venezuela and most of the Global south will not sit down and let the US destroy China because IF China fall they're next.
Last edited:
I mean it's America. They won't get involved unless they can play-up some coalition/allies/tag team bs. That's what the RAND report is literally spelling out and it's the political environment America is creating today. Russia and NK are non-factors here imo. They are China's India and Philippines - lots of political support with minimal real support. Japan will be heavily involved and SK won't have control of their military. Any Asian country involvement is anything but a sideshow.
The US strategy is not to see the conflict against China in isolation; there is no way to think of a US conflict against China as a bilateral conflict. In fact, the US is already taking visible actions to join the efforts of Southeast Asian countries.
For example, Indonesian leader Joko Widodo recently suggested that Philippine authorities purchase an anti-submarine aircraft from Jakarta. Philippine leader Marcos previously mentioned the deployment of such equipment in the South China Sea, where incidents involving Chinese ships frequently occur. Indonesia's opinion on the conflict between the Philippines and China is rarely heard - the country typically keeps its distance from ongoing incidents and avoids commenting on them. However, he now offered assistance to the Filipinos in maintaining control over the territories.
Of course, the situation is not that simple. Firstly, this proposal can be seen as partially economic, since Indonesia places great emphasis on the development of the military-industrial complex. Secondly, it was recently revealed that the Indonesian Navy is interested in acquiring a Chinese anti-ship missile system, which constitutes a clear attempt to balance and prevent China from perceiving Jakarta as a threat.
Despite this diplomatic game, Indonesia's proposal can be seen as a show of solidarity with the Philippines – a rare occurrence in Jakarta. Furthermore, it was recently reported that Vietnam and the Philippines are ready to sign a cooperation agreement between their coast guard departments. The details of the document are still unknown because it has not yet been adopted, but it will undoubtedly be considered anti-Chinese.
25/01/
It is too early to call what is happening a fully consolidated force in the South China Sea. However, it is also incorrect to say that there has been no progress in this direction. Furthermore, considering that such efforts would be beneficial to the United States, it could use them as a pretext to expand its influence in Southeast Asia.
Just remind everyone that in Southeast Asia, tension has become permanent, despite reports that emerged a few weeks ago about certain agreements between the Philippines and China. A few days after these publications, a very comical video appeared on the internet, the events of which took place on January 12th. Filipino fishermen captured shells at Scarborough Shoal (under Chinese control and disputed by Taiwan and the Philippines) and the Chinese forced them to throw them into the water. It is quite suspicious that the video emerged shortly after the news of the “thaw” in relations between the two countries. However, this incident did not end the matter: the Chinese were accused of several more provocations.
As I said, there is already a clear position around shaping the new geostrategic environment that is being formed and the US should not be underestimated.
If Singapore and Indonesia do not join, then the US strategy is doomed. It's not me who says this, it was RAND and the DoS themselves through this publication. They need to co-opt all five allies mentioned in the paper to create the strategy to beat China.
China must create a greater relationship with ASEAN, be it commercial, cultural, economic, political and diplomatic to neutralize this cohesion.
Last edited:
Correct bro, ASEAN solidarity is a myth, everybody is worried about each other and its now brewing under the surface, The Philippine had issue with Malaysia regarding Sabah, Malaysia with Singapore, Singapore with both Malaysia and Indonesia, Cambodia with Vietnam, rivalry between Vietnam and Thailand, Thailand with Myanmar. So what did the American do, Nothing, heck if they value their relationship with us, they should had supported our claimed against the British regarding Sabah.
And also Indonesia being the largest country in ASEAN and the most important had experience a limited balkanization, remember East Timor? Who are the country behind it, aside from Australian and America is Singapore.
And here's a thought , everybody in the Pacific especially its vassals know the end of PAX AMERICANA is near and are scared about the future, they don't know how to respond and adapt to a multipolar world, they are used to have America behind their back. The fear is that bad animosity will resurface and regional conflict will escalate, will China intervene? Like I said the American is roping its vassal as a way to rein them in BUT with what? there is limited resources to go around to make everybody happy.