Shenyang / SAC - newly announced 5th generation fighter


Scchwerter_

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That means it'll be a wait until 2021 or 2022 before the J-XY could take flight. But perhaps things might be faster since it is allegedly a development of the FC-31 airframe.
well late next year is also possible, and if this project is indeed corollated with the carrier-borne 4th gen, then maiden flight in 2020 fits both Sun Cong's alleged quote that the new carrier fighter will show up in 2020; as well as PB19980515 (who claims to have worked on the J-15 and is historically a quite reliable source of information)'s quotes from 超级大本营. He said that the new carrier fighter will have its maiden flight either during the second half of 2019 (well that's obviously not gonna happen) or during the first half of 2020. This quote, from
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, is posted on 2018.03.04, quite a few months earlier than the start of the new SAC project (but maybe not before the contest between 601 and 611 for the 4th gen carrier fighter, *if a contest actually took place, that is*)

I admit that I'm kinda reaching at this point, but all of these information seems to more or less point at the same conclusion: SAC's new project is likely to be China's 4th gen carrier fighter
 

Scchwerter_

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Registered Member
well late next year is also possible, and if this project is indeed corollated with the carrier-borne 4th gen, then maiden flight in 2020 fits both Sun Cong's alleged quote that the new carrier fighter will show up in 2020; as well as PB19980515 (who claims to have worked on the J-15 and is historically a quite reliable source of information)'s quotes from 超级大本营. He said that the new carrier fighter will have its maiden flight either during the second half of 2019 (well that's obviously not gonna happen) or during the first half of 2020. This quote, from
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, is posted on 2018.03.04, quite a few months earlier than the start of the new SAC project (but maybe not before the contest between 601 and 611 for the 4th gen carrier fighter, *if a contest actually took place, that is*)

I admit that I'm kinda reaching at this point, but all of these information seems to more or less point at the same conclusion: SAC's new project is likely to be China's 4th gen carrier fighter
More info: PB19980515 not only created a post on the naval 4th gen fighter 3 months before the start-of-planning of the SAC project, he also created a post concerning the electro optical system of said aircraft on 2018.09.04 (link:
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) also 3 months before the open contract from SAC for a electro optical system that "must have a degree of stealth ability" This consistency makes me wonder if he indeed has some inside information regarding the naval fighter project...
1.JPG
 

SinoSoldier

Colonel
well late next year is also possible, and if this project is indeed corollated with the carrier-borne 4th gen, then maiden flight in 2020 fits both Sun Cong's alleged quote that the new carrier fighter will show up in 2020; as well as PB19980515 (who claims to have worked on the J-15 and is historically a quite reliable source of information)'s quotes from 超级大本营. He said that the new carrier fighter will have its maiden flight either during the second half of 2019 (well that's obviously not gonna happen) or during the first half of 2020. This quote, from
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, is posted on 2018.03.04, quite a few months earlier than the start of the new SAC project (but maybe not before the contest between 601 and 611 for the 4th gen carrier fighter, *if a contest actually took place, that is*)

I admit that I'm kinda reaching at this point, but all of these information seems to more or less point at the same conclusion: SAC's new project is likely to be China's 4th gen carrier fighter
More info: PB19980515 not only created a post on the naval 4th gen fighter 3 months before the start-of-planning of the SAC project, he also created a post concerning the electro optical system of said aircraft on 2018.09.04 (link:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
) also 3 months before the open contract from SAC for a electro optical system that "must have a degree of stealth ability" This consistency makes me wonder if he indeed has some inside information regarding the naval fighter project...
View attachment 56019
I am aware of PB19980515's quotes and predictions, but after all conjecture is merely conjecture. He may be informed about things that we are not but there is no way he could be correct on 100% of his predictions (in fact, quite of few of his convictions have been false). The latest solid evidence of a SAC-led fighter program is from the recent article posted in the WeChat group and that suggests that it'll be quite a long time away based on the alleged status of the project. However, there are several things that work in favor of a shorter reveal time, in particular 3D-printing of certain airframe components and the fact that a lot of the subcomponents have been developed for previous fighter projects. So no one really knows for sure.

It's also funny that PB19980515 has essentially disappeared from CJDBY since January. Maybe he's been silenced by his higher-ups or maybe he's embarrassed to get so many things wrong.

By the way, do you know when Sun Cong stated that the J-XY would fly in 2020?
 

Scchwerter_

New Member
Registered Member
I am aware of PB19980515's quotes and predictions, but after all conjecture is merely conjecture. He may be informed about things that we are not but there is no way he could be correct on 100% of his predictions (in fact, quite of few of his convictions have been false). The latest solid evidence of a SAC-led fighter program is from the recent article posted in the WeChat group and that suggests that it'll be quite a long time away based on the alleged status of the project. However, there are several things that work in favor of a shorter reveal time, in particular 3D-printing of certain airframe components and the fact that a lot of the subcomponents have been developed for previous fighter projects. So no one really knows for sure.

It's also funny that PB19980515 has essentially disappeared from CJDBY since January. Maybe he's been silenced by his higher-ups or maybe he's embarrassed to get so many things wrong.

By the way, do you know when Sun Cong stated that the J-XY would fly in 2020?
agreed that PB19980515 cannot be 100% correct with his perdictions, I'm merely pointing out that this is possibly in corollation with what we know from the wechat article. As to the alleged quote, Its in an interview done sometime during summer this year. The "alleged" is beacuse the original article (though published from a quite authoriative source) did not *specifically* state that this came out of the mouth of Sun Cong... Sadly I can't locate the original source right now, will post it here once I find it
 

SinoSoldier

Colonel
agreed that PB19980515 cannot be 100% correct with his perdictions, I'm merely pointing out that this is possibly in corollation with what we know from the wechat article. As to the alleged quote, Its in an interview done sometime during summer this year. The "alleged" is beacuse the original article (though published from a quite authoriative source) did not *specifically* state that this came out of the mouth of Sun Cong... Sadly I can't locate the original source right now, will post it here once I find it
I'm curious about the Sun Cong interview because there was an interview in which he mentioned 2020 specifically, but that interview was from 2013. Not sure if this is just a re-hashed interview or a recent one.
 

Scchwerter_

New Member
Registered Member
I'm curious about the Sun Cong interview because there was an interview in which he mentioned 2020 specifically, but that interview was from 2013. Not sure if this is just a re-hashed interview or a recent one.
shit seems like my memory meshed the two reports together...sorry for the misinformation =(
 

latenlazy

Colonel
Interesting how detailed design and prototyping are grouped into one stage. Any idea how long the "S" stage might take to complete for this SAC project?

If this is indeed the case then them engineers at SAC are pretty bloody fast with the design work... that's like finishing the design in 15 months
That’s because “detailed design” and “prototyping” are essentially the stage where they do the physical integration of component systems and concept designs that are developed in earlier steps. This sort of project staging makes the most sense when your component and design development are mature enough that you’re essentially putting to work design concepts and component systems that have already gone through their own sets of validation and can be put together in a product design intended for production pretty confidently. At the S stage you’re trying to make sure everything works well together, not trying to develop the technologies themselves. I imagine this was very different for earlier projects when China’s technological base was much lower. In that condition you have to develop the component systems and design concepts with integration testing and prototyping in tandem, which ends up being a much messier process. This in turn reflects on your project timeline. This is one reason I’ve been saying we should begin to see compression of timelines as China’s technological base continues to improve and mature. We’re going to need to make adjustments of our projections built around historical data. We’re not looking at the same conditions we started with.
 

Inst

Senior Member
I hope it's a JH-XX, not a J-31 derivative. Given that the J-31 is essentially a Chinese version of the F-35, it's boring and we'd have more fun if they put up the JH-XX instead as a supersonic strike fighter.
 

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