Shenyang next gen combat aircraft thread

[tphuang]

I think it will easily be more than low triple digits. I expect the manned stealth fighter air fleet to be a minimum 1200-1500 fighters for at least another generation, and unless the plan is keep a 5th gen fighter around as a numbers filler that whole contingent will eventually become a mix of J-50s and J-36s. If those are the correct ballpark numbers something like 300-500 J-36s is probably reasonable. Something we really should be factoring more into future force projections is fleet expansion. The 4th gen procurement numbers were more a function of limited resources than an optimal fleet size for a country as large (and now as well resourced) as China. One thing to keep in mind is that so long as air control over the western pacific is an essential mission that is *a lot* of area to cover, so while I don’t expect the J-36 to be a mainstay I do think having a few hundred around would be ideal in the event of a high intensity conflict where you may have to cover a lot of area simultaneously.

I think 300 at minimum for J-36 and 500 at minimum for J-XDS. I don't want to speculate more than that for now, because the manned to unmanned fighter jet ratio is something that will likely evolve over time as AI improve.

And I do think J-XDS for the navy will happen. I have said that since when I first speculated Shenyang had a program that was about to fly.

 

[Nautilus]

I think it will easily be more than low triple digits. I expect the manned stealth fighter air fleet to be a minimum 1200-1500 fighters for at least another generation, and unless the plan is keep a 5th gen fighter around as a numbers filler that whole contingent will eventually become a mix of J-50s and J-36s. If those are the correct ballpark numbers something like 300-500 J-36s is probably reasonable. Something we really should be factoring more into future force projections is fleet expansion. The 4th gen procurement numbers were more a function of limited resources than an optimal fleet size for a country as large (and now as well resourced) as China. One thing to keep in mind is that so long as air control over the western pacific is an essential mission that is *a lot* of area to cover, so while I don’t expect the J-36 to be a mainstay I do think having a few hundred around would be ideal in the event of a high intensity conflict where you may have to cover a lot of area simultaneously.

We have no idea how the unmanned component will play out. If J-36/J-50 really is the tea pot, then we might end up with anywhere from 2 to 20+ teacups depending on how potent the unmanned platforms are, how powerful the AI is, how resistant they are to jamming, how survivable the controller is, and so on. PLA might find their needs met with 100 J-36s for all we know.

 

[GTI]

We have no idea how the unmanned component will play out. If J-36/J-50 really is the tea pot, then we might end up with anywhere from 2 to 20+ teacups depending on how potent the unmanned platforms are, how powerful the AI is, how resistant they are to jamming, how survivable the controller is, and so on. PLA might find their needs met with 100 J-36s for all we know.

Wasn’t the teapot said only in relation to SAC’s contribution to PLA’s next gen air warfare? I.e. J-36 not included.

Furthermore, didn’t those same cryptic rumours also state that J-XDS definitely was not the teapot?

Lastly, not suggesting it’s the teapot, but why the hell do we seem to be so unfocused on trying to figure out (or at least aimlessly speculate /s) what that other unidentified flying object over Shenyang is?! It kind of looked like popular artist depictions of JH-XX, only it seemed too small, like large CCA size.

 

[Tomboy]

Wasn’t the teapot said only in relation to SAC’s contribution to PLA’s next gen air warfare? I.e. J-36 not included.

Furthermore, didn’t those same cryptic rumours also state that J-XDS definitely was not the teapot?

Lastly, not suggesting it’s the teapot, but why the hell do we seem to be so unfocused on trying to figure out (or at least aimlessly speculate /s) what that other unidentified flying object over Shenyang is?! It kind of looked like popular artist depictions of JH-XX, only it seemed too small, like large CCA size.

IMO, J-36 will almost definitely be integrated with loyal wingman drones but may be different to J-XDS in the sense that J-XDS is meant for relatively closer range combat and hence probably will integrate with drones more directly while J-36 will be far away from the front commanding everything and occasionally shooting off a VLRAAM.

As for the UFO over Shenyang if confirmed as real should have its own thread IMO.

 

[latenlazy]

We have no idea how the unmanned component will play out. If J-36/J-50 really is the tea pot, then we might end up with anywhere from 2 to 20+ teacups depending on how potent the unmanned platforms are, how powerful the AI is, how resistant they are to jamming, how survivable the controller is, and so on. PLA might find their needs met with 100 J-36s for all we know.

The less certainty we have about the unmanned component the more certainty I have that the manned component will be very sizable. The reason is because you cannot plan your future fighting capacity around unproven capabilities.

Besides for the J-36 it’s not just about how capable it is at doing force multiplication. It’s also about coverage and availability.

 

[Phead128]

Agreed. Other than the double wheel nose landing gear, J-50 so far has not shown evidence that it is designed wth a CV variant in mind. No launch bar, no sign of tail hook and folding wings. The pilot would be sitting too far behind for arrest landings, too.

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence? Take J-35 for example ...the initial FC-31 also showed no evidence of carrier operation capabilities during it's early development phase either, yet we saw it is developed into the naval J-35 almost a decade later. The navy needs J-XDS to fight in the Pacific at and beyond the second island chain. These nuclear CATOBARs will be fielding J-35 and J-15Ts against potential F/A-XX and F-35Cs, it will be so lopsided and pointless for nuclear CATOBARs without J-XDS or equivalent.

 

[donnnage99]

The weird shape of the frontal section and nose cone could generate some lift approaching a carrier though Idk if that alone will be enough. Some additional innovative approach must be in the work if this thing is also intended for carrier operation.

 

[Tomboy]

The weird shape of the frontal section and nose cone could generate some lift approaching a carrier though Idk if that alone will be enough. Some additional innovative approach must be in the work if this thing is also intended for carrier operation.

This aircraft is almost definitely equipped with TVC, on approach it should be able to keep the nose up.

 

[burritocannon]

over the nose visibility is generally considered an imperative for naval aviation and the dimensions of this ones snout and the somewhat low-set position of the cockpit might require an reliance on synthetic vision. not having mk1 eyeball fallback is still yet unprecedented. i think a complete reliance on synthetic vision for landing on this thing would be a very expensive experiment.
but what do i know, maybe they have enough confidence in the current state of the technology to invest in it.

 

[SanWenYu]

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence? Take J-35 for example ...the initial FC-31 also showed no evidence of carrier operation capabilities during it's early development phase either, yet we saw it is developed into the naval J-35 almost a decade later. The navy needs J-XDS to fight in the Pacific at and beyond the second island chain. These nuclear CATOBARs will be fielding J-35 and J-15Ts against potential F/A-XX and F-35Cs, it will be so lopsided and pointless for nuclear CATOBARs without J-XDS or equivalent.

I do not think the J-35 a good example in this case. FC-31 was designed as a 5 gen land-based aircraft for export as we know. SAC took almost a decade to develop J-35 on top of it. There must have been significantly redesigns in the structure in addition to adding the visible features for carrier uses. While we might still call J-35 "a naval variant" of FC-31, its path of development should definitely not be repeated by PLANAF for their 6th gen carrier aircraft.