I think 300 at minimum for J-36 and 500 at minimum for J-XDS. I don't want to speculate more than that for now, because the manned to unmanned fighter jet ratio is something that will likely evolve over time as AI improve.I think it will easily be more than low triple digits. I expect the manned stealth fighter air fleet to be a minimum 1200-1500 fighters for at least another generation, and unless the plan is keep a 5th gen fighter around as a numbers filler that whole contingent will eventually become a mix of J-50s and J-36s. If those are the correct ballpark numbers something like 300-500 J-36s is probably reasonable. Something we really should be factoring more into future force projections is fleet expansion. The 4th gen procurement numbers were more a function of limited resources than an optimal fleet size for a country as large (and now as well resourced) as China. One thing to keep in mind is that so long as air control over the western pacific is an essential mission that is *a lot* of area to cover, so while I don’t expect the J-36 to be a mainstay I do think having a few hundred around would be ideal in the event of a high intensity conflict where you may have to cover a lot of area simultaneously.
And I do think J-XDS for the navy will happen. I have said that since when I first speculated Shenyang had a program that was about to fly.