Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator


paintgun

Senior Member
I probably wouldn't call it a finished product.
pardon me, should have called it finished design stage



Indonesia has already agreed to fund 20% of the cost.

IMO the issue is not with funding or technology. By South Korea's own estimates, they only posess ~60% of the necessary technology. Since the goal of the project has been upgraded to stealth capabilities, it's likely that SK will need to import or license a greater % of technology from abroad. South Korea is not under arms embargo and have access to US, EU, and Russian technologies.

What IS an issue of concern is if this project turns into another Mitsubishi F-2. If SK had to import the technology and pay high cost for the licensing, what would be the per unit cost of the aircraft, when R&D & licensing costs are added? Japan paid dearly for the imported technology and the F-2 ended up costing over $120 million each.
that is very true
from what i see they are trying to keep cost down, in other words they are aware of the potential cost problem, but it will inevitably inflate
 
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AssassinsMace

Brigadier
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Beijing’s Raptor Knockoff

China shows off second new stealth jet development in two years

BY: Bill Gertz - July 17, 2012 5:00 am


American intelligence agencies recently obtained new information on China’s second new stealth fighter-bomber revealed on the Internet in the past two years, according to U.S. officials.

The new jet, dubbed the F-60, is a fifth-generation warplane; a prototype was disclosed in photographs posted on two Chinese military affairs websites beginning June 21.

Officials familiar with intelligence reports said the shape and design of the F-60 appears similar to the U.S. Air Force’s F-22 Raptor, the U.S. military’s most advanced stealth fighter, although it is smaller in size.

The similarities are raising concerns in counterintelligence circles that China obtained design details for its new jet from the F-22 through espionage or cyber-spying, as occurred with the Chinese compromise of F-35 data by suspected intelligence hackers several years ago.

A Defense Intelligence Agency spokeswoman declined to comment on the new Chinese stealth jet.

According to the U.S. officials, intelligence analysts recently conducted detailed analyses of photos that show the first prototype of the new jet being transported on the back of a flatbed truck along the Beijing-Shenyang highway under escort by vehicles and officials of the Ministry of State Security, China’s political police and intelligence service.


Chinese Internet photo showing what U.S. intelligence agencies believe is a new Chinese stealth fighter enroute to a stress testing facility.

The new jet was shown at a rest stop during its transport during what Chinese websites said was transfer to a stress testing facility.

The twin-engine jet was shown without its tail stabilizers or cockpit canopy, leading some analysts to conclude it was an L-15 trainer aircraft.

However, analysis of the photos revealed that the new jet is larger in size and has different wing shapes and engine intakes than the trainer, and therefore is likely the new F-60.

The photos and commentary were posted on Tiexue (
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), a military website in Beijing that reports on People’s Liberation Army developments; and Feiyang Junshi, (
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), another military website based in Yancheng City, Jiangsu Province.

No mention was made of the F-60 in recent unclassified Pentagon annual reports to Congress on China’s military.

The 2011 report stated that development of the J-20 stealth jet and long-range conventional missiles “could improve the PLA’s ability to strike regional air bases, logistical facilities, and other ground-based infrastructure.”

The F-60 jet is under development by the Shenyang Aircraft Corp., which analysts say lost out several years ago to the manufacturer of China’s first stealth fighter, the J-20, which is being built by the Chengdu Aircraft Design Institute.

The J-20 was first shown in a test flight during the visit to China in January 2011 by then-Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates in what was widely viewed as anti-U.S. political posturing by China’s communist government and military.

Gates had canceled production of the Air Force’s F-22 months earlier claiming that large numbers of F-22s were not needed because China would not field a comparable jet until 2020.

It now appears that China will have two new fifth-generation stealth fighters capable of challenging the U.S. Air Force in Asia years before the U.S. intelligence estimate of 2020.

The Pentagon considers stealth jet fighters key “anti-access, area denial” forces that China is developing as part of a strategy of forcing the U.S. military to operate further from Chinese shores.

The arms have prompted a new Pentagon doctrine called the Air Sea Battle Concept that calls for new U.S. forces and upgraded alliances in Asia to better assist U.S. forces in coming to the aid of democratic friends and allies in any future conflicts in the region.

Other high-tech forces being built by China for use against the United States include anti-ship ballistic missiles; anti-satellite missiles and lasers; large numbers of submarines; cyber warfare capabilities; and anti-missile defenses.

Some U.S. intelligence analysts are viewing the disclosure of the F-60 as an official leak by the Chinese military. Evidence for that view was one photo of the jet that shows an Audi A6 parked next to the truck transporting it. The parked Audi appears designed to provide foreign or domestic observers with a vehicle of known dimensions that will allow analysts to make calculations on the size and shape of the new jet.

China in the past has revealed new military developments on the Internet through similar official leaks. For example, China’s new Yuan-class attack submarine was built entirely in secret until photos of the submarine appeared on the Internet in 2004.

Retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula, a former deputy chief of staff for intelligence, said the disclosure of the new Chinese stealth jet “should not come as a surprise.”

“The PLA [air force] has a very comprehensive planning process, and may have several advanced aircraft in various stages of design and development,” Deptula told the Free Beacon.

Larry Wortzel, a former Army intelligence officer, said it would be difficult to determine if the Chinese obtained secrets on the F-22 for the new jet.

“We know the F-35 had a major cyber penetration,” Wortzel told the Free Beacon. “But even without a penetration, there have been enough opportunities to see F-22s to assist a manufacturer in trying to copy the external design. Xian and Shenyang were working parallel programs for stealth fighter aircraft.”

Richard Fisher, a specialist on China’s military program, said in addition to the rest stop photos, later pictures showed the new jet at a People’s Liberation Army Air Force test center near the city of Xian.


A mock up of China's second advanced stealth jet fighter the F-60.

“The F-60 has been reported by Chinese sources as a possible ‘private’ program that it hopes it can sell to the PLA later,” Fisher said in an interview.

“This has happened numerous times before, as in the case of the Hongdu K-8 trainer. What we see on the truck could also be a full-scale model headed for a wind tunnel, electronic or stress testing facility. We do not know yet if a flying prototype has been built.”

However, Fisher said image analysis shows the new jet to be a possible smaller fifth-generation fighter that could be promoted by Shenyang as a lower cost fighter than the Chengdu J-20.

“It is just slightly longer than the F-35, has twin engines but clearly uses stealth shaping as would a fifth-gen fighter,” Fisher said. “It may also employ internal weapon carriage and most likely has a modern [active electronically scanned array] radar. If this is a real program, it will also be developed into a carrier capable version. The size and twin-engine configuration is correct for usage on China’s carriers.”

China is currently conducting sea trials for its first aircraft carrier, the Soviet-era Varyag, and U.S. intelligence officials have said two additional carriers are under construction at a shipyard near Shanghai.

“The bottom line here is that as Washington can’t figure out whether it can afford just one fifth-gen fighter program, China may be pursuing up to three or more,” Fisher said.

The Chinese fighter buildup comes as the Navy is having second thoughts about purchasing large numbers of the naval version of the F-35, which was designated the mainstay future U.S. fighter jet after Gates killed off the F-22.

“When fighter programs start this kind of dive before production and deployment, the ending is usually bad,” Fisher said. “If the Shenyang fighter program is real, this only serves to compound the disaster of having ended F-22 production, which has to rank as one of the most shortsighted and dangerous acts of U.S. unilateral disarmament since the end of the Cold War.”

If the Navy cuts its plans to buy large numbers of F-35Cs and rely more on jets from the Air Force, there are concerns that the Air Force with about 120 F-22 will not be able to do the job, Fisher said.

The second new Chinese stealth fighter development further undermines the decision made by Gates in 2009 to limit production of the F-22 to 187 aircraft and to instead produce several thousand F-35s.

Gates said on July 16, 2009 that by 2020 the United States would have 1,100 fifth generation F-35s and F-22s, but that China was projected to have none, and that the gap of U.S. to Chinese advanced fighters would widen by 2025 with 1,700 advanced U.S. jets to Beijing’s “handful” of jets capable of penetrating strongly defended airspace and the ability to fly long distances.

Fisher said in response to Gates’ 2009 assessment: “With delays being compounded by further cutbacks and production reductions, it does not seem possible that the United States will have 1,700 fifth-generation fighters in 2025 while the Chinese may only have a handful.”

“The Chinese may have two hundred to several hundred by 2035, which in their neighborhood will go far to deter the United States,” he said.

To meet the Chinese jet fighter imbalance, “it is imperative that we revive production of an improved version of the F-22,” Fisher said. “Otherwise we condemn ourselves to either a slow retreat from Asia or a ‘Pearl Harbor’ that will be delivered by China.”

The Pentagon’s 2011 report on China’s military said, “In January 2011, initial images of China’s fifth generation J-20 stealth fighter were posted on the Internet.”

“Although the appearance of this prototype underscores the level of PRC investment in advanced defense systems, the Defense Department does not expect the J-20 to achieve an effective operational capability prior to 2018,” the report said. “China faces several hurdles as it moves toward J-20 production, including the mastery of high-performance jet engine production.”

The report also said “the J-20 will eventually give the PLA Air Force a platform capable of long range, penetrating strikes into complex air defense environments.”

©2012 All Rights Reserved

Some U.S. intelligence analysts are viewing the disclosure of the F-60 as an official leak by the Chinese military. Evidence for that view was one photo of the jet that shows an Audi A6 parked next to the truck transporting it. The parked Audi appears designed to provide foreign or domestic observers with a vehicle of known dimensions that will allow analysts to make calculations on the size and shape of the new jet.[/
This part is especially hiiiiiiiilarious. A conspiracy to drive an Audi so people can take measurements? LOL!
 

i.e.

Senior Member
This part is especially hiiiiiiiilarious. A conspiracy to drive an Audi so people can take measurements? LOL!
They live in a cacoon.


This is more hilarious:

To meet the Chinese jet fighter imbalance, “it is imperative that we revive production of an improved version of the F-22,” Fisher said. “Otherwise we condemn ourselves to either a slow retreat from Asia or a ‘Pearl Harbor’ that will be delivered by China.”


This is a fallacy, there is a third alternative. which is a pacific that is free from any one or two dominating it.

When you base 1/2 of your military forces around a technologically competent, economically strong, and politically independent nation, care to take a guess what they will do?
 

Player99

Junior Member
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This part is especially hiiiiiiiilarious. A conspiracy to drive an Audi so people can take measurements? LOL!
Speaking of conspiracy, let's just say that it is a conspiracy on China's side. So why would China keep inciting the sentiment on the US's side that they should revive the F-22 program in addition to building lots more of F-35? Is China playing the trick that the US had played in bankrupting the USSR?

That aside, there're many Chinese who are of the belief that F-22, in additon to its being unltra expenive, has design problems so serious that the US can only afford to have the limited number of it just to keep the myth alive. But they were not even confident enough to deploy it on Lybia, which would be such a safe bet to demonstrate its shock and awe power.

Of course, also often and openly talked about on the Chinese forums is the belief that the US doesn't even need to use its superior military to overpower China, all it has to do it to drop a list of CCP high officials' relatives living in the USA or of the wealth stashed overseas by such offcials...

So what are we poor commoners to believe? How about that less than six month from now, the world is going to end? :p
 
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FriedRiceNSpice

Senior Member
But they were not even confident enough to deploy it on Lybia, which would be such a safe bet to demonstrate its shock and awe power.
Well, the US did not need the F-22 to use against Libya, their 4th gen fighters were more than enough. In fact, against a country like Libya the F-22 is probably LESS EFFECTIVE than conventional 4th gens with bigger payloads and less downtime between sorties. Primary mission (not saying F-22 does not have great A2G capability) is air dominance, and frankly Libya could not put anything up in the air to be dominated. Increased survivability is also not an issue when the Libyans couldn't even touch the oldest aircraft in US service. More importantly, the US would like to keep the true capabilities of the F-22 as hidden from its rivals as possible. Iraq and Afghanistan has already given China and Russia a good look at the US's military capabilities, the last thing the US wants is to give these rivals a chance to study the capabilities of its newest and baddest toys.
 

AssassinsMace

Brigadier
I think this is a case where wishful beliefs and denial rules confusing what is just normal. To me transporting it like this is very normal. Like how else are they going to do it? This is probably the most practical way. Audis I believe are the main cars used by the goverment so I don't how they find that odd. But of course these people are ignorant of facts in general about China. A lot of the naysayers believe it's a L-15 because of all that security. Like a top secret project would have no security? So it has to be all a show for them to create a stir. What's "normal" is not normal because they believe China is the super secret police state.

They want to bring up Pearl Harbor. Can China bring up self-defense against slavery and colonialism? And since it was Japan that bombed Pearl Harbor, can China bring up Nazis?
 

Schumacher

Senior Member
Speaking of conspiracy, let's just say that it is a conspiracy on China's side. So why would China keep inciting the sentiment on the US's side that they should revive the F-22 program in addition to building lots more of F-35? Is China playing the trick that the US had played in bankrupting the USSR?
.........................
Sounds like a good plan. A cold war is much more humane than a hot one.
 

plawolf

Brigadier
I actually love the opening sentence - "American intelligence agencies recently obtained new information on China’s second new stealth fighter-bomber revealed on the Internet in the past two years, according to U.S. officials."

Makes it almost sound like some CIA wizkid hacked into a top secret PLA server. Certainly make for more exciting reading than "some spook looked on a forum and used their Save Image As skillz to bring us these candid snaps".

This is so obviously a case of a cause looking for a soap box to stand on. The author wanted to lament the closing down of the F22 line and was looking for any excuse to bring it up. OMG, that plane looks like the F22! The Chinese must have stolen the design! We are doomed! Blah blah blah.

The fact that it would almost certainly be a far better fit for the F35 seemed to have escaped the attention of the geniuses that wrote that piece, or it didn't fit with the narrative they wanted to drive.

One also has to wonder where they are finding these former members of the 'intelligence community' who obviously have no idea what they are talking about.

Stealth fighters is so much more than an external shape. The internal structure also needs to be specifically designed and aligned to work in concert with the external shaping to achieve stealth. That is basic stuff that anyone can find out with a little reading on the internet. To omit that shows their 'expert' doesn't know the first thing about stealth designing.

I think even us amateurs here knows full well how ridiculous it is to suggest that someone could RE something just by looking at pictures. For Larry Wortzel to suggest it shows he doesn't know the first thing about basic design and manufacturing either.

What did he actually do when he worked for the 'intelligence community'? Make coffee?

What we are seeing with this and similar articles like it is a simple case of over-correction.

I am willing to guess that the author who wrote that piece was one of the many deniers who thought the J20 was all a hoax, and then a model, and then the world's most expensive taxi to finally accepting that it is real and here.

Having been 'fooled' the first time round, they are taking no chances and going into red alert hype mode when they saw the first images of the F60, and to people like them, there is no higher praise than to suggest that the F60 is a rip-off of the F22, because in their hearts of hearts, they still will not believe that the Chinese could come up with something like that independently. No no no, the only way they managed to make the J20 and F60 work is by copying off of American designs.

However, the Chinese were very inconsiderate in making the J20 so distinctive that not even the most deluded and uninformed reader would believe that it was a rip-off of the F22 or F35, so the author had to keep that idea to themselves when covering the J20, but it was looking for any sort of release. That is the only way anyone could suggest that the F60 is an F22 knock-off without having actually seen what it looks like first.
 

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