Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Global South strategic cooperation
- Thread starter Strangelove
- Start date
I think we have to think about what we mean by giving countries goodies when discussing relationship with Turkey and others. Erodogan has won the election, so this is quite applicable.
First you have the sanctioned countries like Russia, Belarus & Iran. Generally, these countries all need Chinese help in developing their resources. They already have industries, but lack access to Western machineries. So China's most immediate goal is to help them replace Western everything with Chinese everything and to build up their resources.
And then you have important non-sanctioned countries that have actively sided with China like Saudi Arabia & Brazil. They are what you would consider as lynch pin countries. They basically are leaders of their region. So China is basically giving them whatever they want. In the case of Saudi Arabia, it's getting industrial help on a large scale for the first time. All the region gov't are hoping for Saudi money. It's a very complementary relationship. With Brazil, all the large Chinese companies are looking to setup their Latam base in Brazil.
And then there are the intimate case of Central Asian and ASEAN countries. In this case, you have stronger & pro-China countries like Uzebekistan, Kazakhstan, Thailand, Malaysia & Indonesia getting favors from Chinese gov't of different degree.
And what is China's greatest gift to these countries right now? BYD plant. Quite evident in that recent MOU signing bw Indonesian gov't & BYD at Shenzhen. Global south countries see BYD as their path to having local NEV industry. Of course in the case of Kazakhstan & Malaysia, they are getting non-BYD auto and battery plants, but I think Malaysia will also get something from BYD. More interesting is this recent story from Thailand
They appear to be setting their sights higher and want to cooperate with China in 3rd countries. I think it's fine that larger countries like Thailand can get treated more special as long as they remain pro-Chinese interests. You'd rather want these countries to be hooked to Chinese tech than vice versa
Aside from that, Chinese policies to countries need to be one where they reward ones showing that they are acting in China's interests. So that's obviously, why they need to continue to invest in MENA, sub-sahara and Latam countries.
And now, we get to the most difficult questions of countries in NATO or around NATO. There are ones now with leaders that neo-liberals don't like: Turkey, Hungary, Serbia, Mexico. Generally, Chinese policies imo should be to just reward when they show willingness to work. It's already worked well with Hungary & Serbia. General favorable policies of Mexican govt to Chinese business has led to good relations bw two countries. Turkey is next in line if they show willingness to play ball. Things like trading in local currency, joining brics/sco & buying Chinese weapons will be up in the list.
And then there are France & Germany. So this is interesting. BYD has decision of where to put its 800k plant. Taiwan uses TSMC to gain favor with other countries. But ask yourself, is a semi plant a better political sell or a 800k EV plant with associated EV ecosystem for these countries that have always had large car industries?
First you have the sanctioned countries like Russia, Belarus & Iran. Generally, these countries all need Chinese help in developing their resources. They already have industries, but lack access to Western machineries. So China's most immediate goal is to help them replace Western everything with Chinese everything and to build up their resources.
And then you have important non-sanctioned countries that have actively sided with China like Saudi Arabia & Brazil. They are what you would consider as lynch pin countries. They basically are leaders of their region. So China is basically giving them whatever they want. In the case of Saudi Arabia, it's getting industrial help on a large scale for the first time. All the region gov't are hoping for Saudi money. It's a very complementary relationship. With Brazil, all the large Chinese companies are looking to setup their Latam base in Brazil.
And then there are the intimate case of Central Asian and ASEAN countries. In this case, you have stronger & pro-China countries like Uzebekistan, Kazakhstan, Thailand, Malaysia & Indonesia getting favors from Chinese gov't of different degree.
And what is China's greatest gift to these countries right now? BYD plant. Quite evident in that recent MOU signing bw Indonesian gov't & BYD at Shenzhen. Global south countries see BYD as their path to having local NEV industry. Of course in the case of Kazakhstan & Malaysia, they are getting non-BYD auto and battery plants, but I think Malaysia will also get something from BYD. More interesting is this recent story from Thailand
They appear to be setting their sights higher and want to cooperate with China in 3rd countries. I think it's fine that larger countries like Thailand can get treated more special as long as they remain pro-Chinese interests. You'd rather want these countries to be hooked to Chinese tech than vice versa
Aside from that, Chinese policies to countries need to be one where they reward ones showing that they are acting in China's interests. So that's obviously, why they need to continue to invest in MENA, sub-sahara and Latam countries.
And now, we get to the most difficult questions of countries in NATO or around NATO. There are ones now with leaders that neo-liberals don't like: Turkey, Hungary, Serbia, Mexico. Generally, Chinese policies imo should be to just reward when they show willingness to work. It's already worked well with Hungary & Serbia. General favorable policies of Mexican govt to Chinese business has led to good relations bw two countries. Turkey is next in line if they show willingness to play ball. Things like trading in local currency, joining brics/sco & buying Chinese weapons will be up in the list.
And then there are France & Germany. So this is interesting. BYD has decision of where to put its 800k plant. Taiwan uses TSMC to gain favor with other countries. But ask yourself, is a semi plant a better political sell or a 800k EV plant with associated EV ecosystem for these countries that have always had large car industries?
Mexico is an interesting case. It is by far too close to US and there is danger involved. On other hand it is a nice pay off to have a cooperative nation of that size. Kinda hard to invest in Mexico when USA can get a puppet elected and nationalize it and sell it to American business for cheap.
Sorry Saudi Arabia ties with Turkey are better than with Iran. Cant even compare the 2. Iran was/is still regarded as Saudi Arabia biggest threat in the region both internally(for supporting shia uprisings/version of their own revolution) and externally (Syria, Yemen, Iraq etc).
Surely BYD plant with associated ecosystem will have higher value added than TSMC plant.
Afghanistan is now accepted into CPEC. Seems like a risky move, but the benefit of a successful inclusion is too great I guess.
would be nice to have CKU be able to go through Afghanistan into Pakistan. That would speed up access into Gwadar.
Looks like the 25 year agreement details got more finalized and Chinese investment into Iran has increased over 2022.
would be nice to have CKU be able to go through Afghanistan into Pakistan. That would speed up access into Gwadar.
Looks like the 25 year agreement details got more finalized and Chinese investment into Iran has increased over 2022.
Yet another win streak for China. American thought they could bring peace to Middle East with war. They were successful, but not the way they intended. Their intimidation failed to bring these country to submission, but successfully bind them together against a common threat. To achieve that the most obvious partner would be China. 2 year after American withdrawal from Afghanistan and it immediately enters Chinese sphere of influence. Had American never did their thing I doubt things would go so smoothly for China.
This is like a round of taichi. China let USA have the initiative, but use its own force against USA. Time will tell if Ukraine will end the same way.
This is like a round of taichi. China let USA have the initiative, but use its own force against USA. Time will tell if Ukraine will end the same way.
The United Arab Emirates said on Wednesday it was no longer taking part in operations by a U.S.-led task force protecting Gulf shipping, which has been subjected to renewed tanker seizures by Iranian naval forces in recent weeks.
The UAE was responding to a Wall Street Journal report on Tuesday which, citing U.S. and Gulf sources, said the Gulf state was frustrated by the lack of U.S. response to recent tanker seizures by Iran.
This was a "mischaracterisation" of conversations between the two countries, a UAE statement said.
But it said it had stopped taking part in the Combined Maritime Forces, headquartered at the U.S. naval base in Bahrain, two months ago.
The UAE had however not left the CMF - which was formed in 2001 to help counter international terrorism - and remains one of the 38 partner nations working on security, counter-terrorism and counter-piracy in the Red Sea and Gulf regions, the CMF website shows.
The UAE statement did not make clear why it had stopped participating or whether it would rejoin.
It said only that the UAE was committed to dialogue and diplomatic engagement to advance regional security and stability, and also to ensuring navigation safety in its seas in accordance with international law.
The UAE foreign and defence ministries did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.
A U.S. official confirmed the UAE remained a CMF partner nation. He told Reuters the UAE was broadly concerned with what actions would be taken in response to tanker seizures, just as it was after Iran-backed Houthi missile strikes on the UAE in January 2022, or any other destabilizing activity close to home.
The Gulf region contains some of the world's most important shipping routes where, since 2019, there have been a series of attacks on vessels at times of tension between arch-adversaries Iran and the United States, a major security ally of Gulf Arab states.
Five weeks ago, Iran within a week in Gulf waters near the Strait of Hormuz. The second tanker, the Niovi, had been travelling from Dubai in the Gulf toward the UAE's Arabian Sea port of Fujairah.
The CMF regularly reports intercepting drug smuggling in Gulf waters. Last week it established a new task force to train partner navies to enhance maritime security in the Middle East.
Taliban is not Chinese friends. They will sabotage BRI.
The problem is that the Taliban are a Pashtun nationalist group but Pashtuns are only about 40% of the population of Afghanistan and many Pashtun areas are in Pakistan. The other major ethnic groups speak dialects of Persian, so might be closer to Iran. That's why the Taliban are paranoid over Iran. The Taliban need to either accept that Afghanistan is a multi ethnic country or split off the Pashtun areas into a nation state.
Until they accept the need for an inclusive government, rather than rule by the Pashtun minority over the other ethnic groups, the Taliban will need to be starved. All the neighbours of Afghanistan are waiting for them to make that choice. China should remain patient and keep dangling the BRI carrot but give them nothing except humanitarian aid until the Taliban form a moderate, inclusive government