Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Global South strategic cooperation

Strangelove

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Petr Akopov: Russia and China’s growing partnership with the Islamic world spells trouble for the West​

The traditional Anglo-American strategy of playing “divide and conquer” with Muslim states may have run its course

By Petr Akopov, RIA Novosti

Petr Akopov: Russia and China’s growing partnership with the Islamic world spells trouble for the West

FILE PHOTO. © Getty Images / Alexei Nikolsky

With Covid quarantines no longer a hindrance, summits have returned to the diplomatic agenda. First, the West returned to face-to-face meetings – EU and NATO summits have been taking place for some time now – and now it is the turn of the East.

Top Asian leaders have not met collectively for more than three years, but in a week’s time the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) will gather in the Uzbek city of Samarkand and will bring together all its leaders. Until recently, it was not entirely clear that Chinese President Xi Jinping would be coming, as some observers had assumed he would not leave Beijing before the Communist Party congress in mid-October. But it has since been announced that the Chinese leader will visit Kazakhstan next week, so a trip to Uzbekistan is also a foregone conclusion.

The meeting between Xi and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin will be the second this year, but the first since the start of the military operation in Ukraine. Also, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will meet for the first time ever in Samarkand. For the two neighbors with a history of fraught relations, the SCO is becoming an important platform for dialogue. And the SCO itself is rapidly outgrowing its original format as a Russo-Chinese security alliance in Central Asia and involving just the Central Asian republics. The group now boasts four nuclear states – that is, virtually all of the non-Western members of the club (except North Korea).

In Uzbekistan, the SCO ‘eight’ will turn into a ‘nine’ as the procedure for Iran's accession will be completed. However, the organization will not be limited to that number for long – it has already announced its intention to start the procedure to transfer Belarus from an observer to a full-fledged member. And it will not stop there. Several more countries, including some influential ones, want to join the SCO.

In recent years, there have been four observers to the organization (as candidates for membership), but now Tehran has come on board and Belarus is starting the transition procedure, so that leaves Afghanistan and Mongolia. Whereas previously the main obstacle to Kabul’s inclusion was the presence of US troops in the country, this problem no longer exists, so its acceptance into the SCO will undoubtedly occur. This will not happen immediately, but rather once the situation in the country has stabilized and a full-fledged system of governance and law and order have been established (naturally, with the help of SCO countries).

Mongolia could become a full-fledged participant at any time – none of the member states have any objections – but in the past it has been slow to do so, preferring to remain an observer. However, rising global tensions will also affect Ulaanbaatar's position, while the growing queue of aspiring SCO members may also prompt its leadership to step up.

There had been aspirants to join the SCO before, but this year they have moved from words to deeds. And we are not only talking about the countries that were among the 'partners in dialogue' (another format of interaction).
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These aspirants comprise nine states: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Qatar, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. The last three obtained the status of dialogues partners only a year ago but are already looking to upgrade to being able to join the organization in full. Syria and Myanmar also want to be involved, along with the United Arab Emirates, which seeks immediate accession. Although such a request cannot be granted, it is in itself a sign of the rapidly growing interest in the organization, which is driven by the Sino-Russian partnership.

The reasons for this are clear: although the consolidation of the non-Western world has been steadily gaining momentum over the past decade, things have accelerated since the beginning of 2020. First, Covid and the resulting lockdowns led to a crisis of globalization, then the operation in Ukraine forced the West to insist that whoever does not go along with the blockade of Russia is for Putin.

And then the provocation of the Taiwan issue hurt the prospects for normalizing relations between the West and the Middle Kingdom. The whole world is being forced to pick a side.

Under these conditions, the optimal model for many influential countries in the Islamic world is to demonstrate their independence, which is seen as carving out a position equidistant from the two poles, i.e. Russia-China and the United States-EU.

But how can US military allies such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia find this equidistance? By joining the SCO.

While it is true that the SCO is not a military bloc, belonging to the organization clearly indicates an unwillingness to participate in any Western anti-Russian and anti-Chinese efforts.

That is why Recep Erdogan will fly to Samarkand, and possibly Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as well. In this case, the SCO ‘nine’ will turn, albeit unofficially so far, into a club of 11, that is, a platform where Russia, China, India and the four most important countries of the Islamic world meet: Saudi Arabia, ‘the richest and most influential’; Iran, ‘the oldest and most passionate’; Turkey, ‘the most developed and ambitious’; and Pakistan, ‘the only nuclear one’. The SCO observers also include Egypt, ‘the main country in the Arab world’; and Qatar, ‘the information and propaganda giant’.

These Islamic countries admittedly do not have the smoothest relations among themselves (especially Saudi Arabia and Iran), and in the past the West has actively used their discord. Russia and China, however, are not interested in pitting Muslims against each other but in involving them in building a new, post-Western world order. And if the three great powers – Russia, China, and India – manage to build strategic relations with the Islamic world in working out a new world order, it will be tantamount to a final verdict in the Anglo-Saxon bid for global domination.

The Atlanticists are no longer betting on a quarrel between Russia and China but on pitting India and China against each other. And they are virtually certain that they will be able to keep the Islamic world in their orbit (and even use it against Beijing and Moscow). Therefore, the ‘Islamization’ of the SCO will be the most important challenge to the Anglo-Saxon project – and also a sign of its complete collapse.
 

coolgod

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Should North Korea be invited to join SCO? I mean Russia and Iran, both of which are heavily sanctioned are in SCO, adding in NK wouldn't be an issue. Is it in China's best interest to have NK join SCO?
That is why Recep Erdogan will fly to Samarkand, and possibly Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as well. In this case, the SCO ‘nine’ will turn, albeit unofficially so far, into a club of 11, that is, a platform where Russia, China, India and the four most important countries of the Islamic world meet: Saudi Arabia, ‘the richest and most influential’; Iran, ‘the oldest and most passionate’; Turkey, ‘the most developed and ambitious’; and Pakistan, ‘the only nuclear one’. The SCO observers also include Egypt, ‘the main country in the Arab world’; and Qatar, ‘the information and propaganda giant’.
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It looks like MBS was invited to the summit, so if MBS goes to Samarkand it would be pretty big news.

The badass SCO gang just got some new members.
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taxiya

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Should North Korea be invited to join SCO?
Not yet, because NK is under UN sanction.

I mean Russia and Iran, both of which are heavily sanctioned are in SCO,
Non of them are under UN sanctions. Iran's UN sanction was lifted as part of the nuclear deal. That deal paved way for Iran's membership in SCO.

China (and Russia) only regard UN sanctions as legitimate.
adding in NK wouldn't be an issue. Is it in China's best interest to have NK join SCO?
Quite the contrary. Why would China want any more players to have influences on the peninsular when China need nothing more than diplomatic support? Why would China want NK to find new and more backers to defy China?

Here is how it happens: NK wants to be more independent from China, so it does not want to rely on the mutual defence treaty, therefor nuclear weapon. China of course hate that, therefor joined UN sanction. China also has the investment in SK to defend which would be hostage if NK got nukes. China is aiming to dominate the whole peninsular not only NK. This objective is not only at odd with US but also NK. This is why we are seeing China's positions being: 1. nuclear free (against NK). 2. NK is not to be touched by US. China's wanted outcome is NK to drop nuclear weapon (locking firming to China), then every door is open including the door to SCO.
 
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Lime

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The Anglo Union (five eyes), though occupies just a small population ratio, controls major resources, wealth, and pricing power in the world, which cap the development of developing countries.
So an anti-AU organization which can represent the developing countries will surely be gradually formed.
 

2handedswordsman

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Quite the contrary. Why would China want any more players to have influences on the peninsular when China need nothing more than diplomatic support? Why would China want NK to find new and more backers to defy China?
Come on, what geopolitical challenges can pose a 23 million ppl country to an 1,4 billion superpower? Even SK would not if they weren't US stooges. Why defy and on what base? SK and JPN are still strategic threats to both PRC and DPRK because they are allied to USA despite the deep dependence and interconnection on economic levels (this applies to PRC). Τhe good will that China showed to America, which of course was a tactical move and not that they suddenly saw in the face of America a good friend that they had not recognized for so many years. Of course we are all aware how this "friendship" is progressing and developing especially in recent years. If we judge from the facts, North Korea was obviously unhappy with China's change of tactics towards America since 1976, and especially after the collapse of the USSR, it looked for ways to ensure its territorial integrity because it was wary of China's politics and that is why it developed its own nuclear weapons even though China pledged its territorial integrity with a defense agreement. As far as the UN and sanctions are concerned, China had to join the sanctions camp too, because if it refused, perhaps the openly hostile policy of the West that manifested itself especially after the election of Trump, might have manifested several years earlier and perhaps then PRC would not have had the political and economical means, to react and counterattack in the way it has managed to do in the last three years.
DPRK's nukes are against anyone who threatens its territorial integrity, and it is most threatened by South Korea, Japan and America. If PRC felt uncomfortable with this, it is because its own tactical moves have shaken the North Koreans' comradely trust, not the other way around. However in recent years, I think important steps have been taken to restore relations from both sides, and the participation in the SCO is just a formality, as DPRK cooperates underground with China, Russia and Iran. A few months ago I read in some news that a delegation of North Koreans had visited a huge collective farm in Russia (Sovkhoz Lenin, outside Moscow) to exchange knowledge on setting up counterparts back in homeland (which is happening as we speak).
To get back on topic, there's no need to push things around as China tries to restore UN dignity step by step, so i agree from a different point of view that DPRK is not going to be a SCO member any soon. There is no need. But as the history is running extremely fast the last 3-4 years i would not be surprised if it will
 

Bellum_Romanum

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India is not a great power though. It is a minor regional power. The most powerful country in South Asia is China, not India.

India must first know thyself before it can become a great power. Sun Tzu and whatnot.
But India must be kept within Russian orbit in order for that country not to be fully brought over to the Anglo-Saxon side. China is smart in playing her geopolitical game with India despite India's constant chihuahua like barking at every darn opportunity.
 

FairAndUnbiased

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But India must be kept within Russian orbit in order for that country not to be fully brought over to the Anglo-Saxon side. China is smart in playing her geopolitical game with India despite India's constant chihuahua like barking at every darn opportunity.
agreed, better for them to be a junior partner of Russia than a British colony again. It is somewhat distasteful that China has to walk around on eggshells around their glass hearts though.
 

Bellum_Romanum

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agreed, better for them to be a junior partner of Russia than a British colony again. It is somewhat distasteful that China has to walk around on eggshells around their glass hearts though.
That's Realpolitik for you and China knows how to play this game perfectly well. India can have all the hype of being a superpower Jai something etc..let them have it if that helps calm and soothe their giant egos. As long as China doesn't get distracted or get baited into making unwise military action either against India or the armed reunification with Taiwan.
 

tphuang

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This will be interesting if this ever happens. I'm sure the Indian security establishment is watching this with alarm. But in my mind, this will be a great way to have fast rail transport between China and India. It would make Chinese exports to India even more competitive than now. Anyways, I expect India to fight this, but not really how they can stop China from just trying to link itself up with Nepal, when all the work to be done is on China side.

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This is the play that SCO and observer nations will have to go for. There is tremendous amount of natural resources in SCO and observer/dialog nations that have probably have being mined too cheaply. There is a lot of power in having real resources and manufacturing vs digital resources and economy. Maybe the countries running on digital economy have been used to cheap natural resources and low end manufacturing for too long.
 
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