Last sunrise for the UK?
By M K Bhadrakumar
The sun may never again rise on the United Kingdom after this weekend. By the "breakfast time" on Friday the outcome of the closely-fought referendum in Scotland will be known. It's a toss up. Did the last-minute intervention by the Queen make a difference to tilt the delicate balance in favor of "No" to Scottish people's demand for independence?
In sheer intellectual terms it's breathtaking that this could be, after all, a velvet divorce. So much of ancient and bloody enmities existed between England and Scotland through centuries and yet the parting is by mutual consent. Of course, the unfinished business will remain bitter and not easily put behind.
Most certainly, this is not how things ended in history in most
Last sunrise for the UK?
By M K Bhadrakumar
The sun may never again rise on the United Kingdom after this weekend. By the "breakfast time" on Friday the outcome of the closely-fought referendum in Scotland will be known. It's a toss up. Did the last-minute intervention by the Queen make a difference to tilt the delicate balance in favor of "No" to Scottish people's demand for independence?
In sheer intellectual terms it's breathtaking that this could be, after all, a velvet divorce. So much of ancient and bloody enmities existed between England and Scotland through centuries and yet the parting is by mutual consent. Of course, the unfinished business will remain bitter and not easily put behind.
Most certainly, this is not how things ended in history in most parts of the world. The civilian death toll in the former East Pakistan in 1971 was anywhere between 3 lakhs and 3 million.
All the countries in our region face the challenge of political separatism. Some are acute challenges and some keep simmering, while some others simply slithered into the undergrowth and may not be quite visible to the naked eye - until they reappear.
India remains in the danger zone, and wisdom, patience and tolerance and sensitivity is needed - especially on the part of our boorish and crass political class. Our pundits point finger at Jaffna, Baluchistan or Tibet but refuse to look within - or pretend they have not noticed.
Vast regions in our country feel alienation but are literally held under the thumb with brutal state coercion. Try and see what happens if we remove the army deployments in the north-east regions - you'll hear the pressure cooker whistle as far away as Thiruvananthapuram in the deep South.
Watching our comical television coverage of Chinese President Xi Jinping's arrival yesterday, it occured to me what mixed thoughts would have crossed Prime Minister Narendra Modi's mind if he had been in Xi's shoes had there been a demonstration by a bunch of Nagas or Bodos or Kashmiris in front of the Indian embassy in Kathmandu on the day he arrived in Nepal last month.
Of course, we may say there is no analogy because we've "democracy". But then, isn't Britain the mother of all democracies? Let me recite a line from my favorite book, Markings, Dag Hammarskjold's dramatic account of his spiritual struggle - "The more faithfully you listen to the voice within you, the better you will hear what is sounding outside. And only he who listens can speak."
What Scotland underscores is that nationalism and sub-nationalism has strange ways and it is not economic development (or deprivation) that lies at the root of political alienation - at least, that is not the only underlying factor or even the main factor.
Cultural identity, political discrimination (real or perceived), language and ethnicity, religion, and the sheer exuberance of living one's own way - all these matter in varying degrees and in the crucible where contemporary experiences mix with the residues of history, strange amalgams form.
Clearly, with a 5 million population, Scotland may not even be economically viable, but that doesn't seem to worry the people who are seeking independence.
The break-up of Britain will send tremors across Europe and globally. If Scotland moves out, Wales may follow. The opinion in the rump will heavily favor moving out of the European Union. Now, an EU without Britain has profound implications.
Germany's ascendancy or "assertiveness" is already being discussed openly. Clearly, German will move still closer to Russia and the EU may itself take a different form. Again, the trans-Atlantic partnership between the US and its European allies cannot remain the same. Britain played a key role as Washington's "branch manager" in Europe.
There have been ups and downs in the US-UK relationship, and there have been times when the poodle led the bumbling master through blind alleys, but Britain is ultimately irreplaceable in America's global strategies. It's unthinkable that the US agenda on NATO's expansion can go ahead without Britain's active role. Equally, without the Anglo-American axis, a New Cold War can never start in Europe. Poland or Lithuania simply cannot replace Britain.
Finally, who will take Britain's place in the United Nations Security Council? Ironically, the UN reform agenda gets a new dynamic (and urgency) if Britain "drops out". Suffice to say, the implications are serious for a variety of theatres in regional and global politics today - Iraq, Syria, Ukraine, Afghanistan, Iran, Hong Kong, Australia and so on.
However, Britain's demise will not be universally mourned. Britain is fairly widely loathed across continents for its brutal colonial record, for its slyness or deviousness (couched in irritating self-righteousness), for its preachy character (despite its scant regard for morality), for its panache to punch above its weight (from under American wings, of course) and for the sheer zest with which it explodes into violent acts against alien peoples who did no harm to it directly or directly.
There is deep irony here, from the South Asian point of view. The Partition is visiting Britain 67 years after Britain summarily imposed it on the Indian sub-continent. History's revenge? But Britain may still get away paying only a fragment of the price that India paid - and is still paying - for the Caesarian operation it conducted on the subcontinent without even administering anaesthesia.
I can't help brooding for the rest of today and until tomorrow "breakfast time": What a way an empire on which the sun never set may finally cease to exist. The Ottoman Empire was the last one to vanish into thin air. Britain played a magical role then. Oh, the ephemeral nature of all "power" - the way it finally ends! Sound and fury signifying nothing …
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar served as a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service for over 29 years, with postings including India's ambassador to Uzbekistan (1995-1998) and to Turkey (1998-2001).
(Copyright 2014 M K Bhadrakumar)
