Russia Economy Thread

[Serb]

The budget deficit so far this year is almost twice what it was last year. Also, let me remind readers that Russia's GDP has declined by 0.5% in the first quarter.

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Let me remind you that the Russian deficit in 2025 (2.5%) is less than half of the US peacetime fiscal deficit (5.9%).

Let me remind you that Russia's real wages increased by 25% since this war started, an

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in modern economic history.

Just last year, the US had a meager 0.8% real wage growth (with undercounted true inflation), and Russia had 3-5%.

American peacetime debt now mirrors the WW2 level of spending. Russian debt is 18%, one of the lowest in the world.

When you look at Ukraine, the country essentially has nothing left, and is propelled by external currency aid 100%.

It's essentially = the debt sustains the broke West, and then the West, using that debt, gives Ukraine a full lifeline.

 

[magmunta]

Let me remind you that the Russian deficit in 2025 (2.5%) is less than half of the US peacetime fiscal deficit (5.9%).

Let me remind you that Russia's real wages increased by 25% since this war started, an

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in modern economic history.

Just last year, the US had a meager 0.8% real wage growth (with undercounted true inflation), and Russia had 3-5%.

American peacetime debt now mirrors the WW2 level of spending. Russian debt is 18%, one of the lowest in the world.

When you look at Ukraine, the country essentially has nothing left, and is propelled by external currency aid 100%.

It's essentially = the debt sustains the broke West, and then the West, using that debt, gives Ukraine a full lifeline.

These are factually correct, but are you implying that Russia is financially, economically doing well? Did you really imply that? Have you heard what the Russian Central Bank said? Have you heard what was said at the Moscow economic forum? Russian economists predict economic crisis by the end of 2027 if current tendencies continue. You can find what said sad at the Moscow economic forum and its sidelines. You can find related info on the web; I have seen these interviews on YouTube.

 

[manqiangrexue]

These are factually correct, but are you implying that Russia is financially, economically doing well? Did you really imply that? Have you heard what the Russian Central Bank said? Have you heard what was said at the Moscow economic forum? Russian economists predict economic crisis by the end of 2027 if current tendencies continue. You can find what said sad at the Moscow economic forum and its sidelines. You can find related info on the web; I have seen these interviews on YouTube.

I have seen Russia's economy and it's people in much more difficult times and I have seen Putin declare that he has no problem fighting in Ukraine for at least another 5 years. Russia is doing just fine and on top of doing just fine, China's economy is its guarantor; rest your false hopes.

 

[Enestori]

In 2021, Russia was the world's 11th largest economy. Today, Russia is the world's 8th largest economy.

The ruble appreciated 10% last year and so far has appreciated another 7% this year, based on annual averages against the dollar.

Inflation is 5.9%. While not ideal, it's lower than Russian inflation every year save one from 2000 to 2016.

Russia is also experiencing an oil and gas revenue surge this year.

Since 2021, Russia's nominal GDP has grown faster than all but one of the world's top 20 economies. Only Turkey's nominal GDP has grown faster. Which kind of tells you about the flaws of nominal GDP.

Russia's economy certainly has difficulties, but it's growing and sustainable for the long term.

 

[pmc]

These are factually correct, but are you implying that Russia is financially, economically doing well? Did you really imply that? Have you heard what the Russian Central Bank said? Have you heard what was said at the Moscow economic forum? Russian economists predict economic crisis by the end of 2027 if current tendencies continue. You can find what said sad at the Moscow economic forum and its sidelines. You can find related info on the web; I have seen these interviews on YouTube.

Russia Central Bank head perfectly understand that real role of Central Bank is promotion of traditional values not even returning Scientists are exempt from traditional values. since Russia has high salaries and good education system Scientist are willing to return even though the traditional values will become tighter in future.

Russia doing well that Indonesian leader has visited three times in less than two years and all those ASEAN leaders routinely visits Russia.
since Russia has built such relations with ASEAN now South Korea and Japan are following them. These countries already part of an Arabic economic system.

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More and more scientists are returning to Russia after leaving to pursue careers in Western countries, President Vladimir Putin announced during his press conference.
Incidentally, our so-called Western colleagues are actively helping us with this. Why did they return? Firstly, a laboratory base and opportunities are being established here, but one of the main reasons is "we're worried about our children; we believe it's becoming impossible to send them to local schools." Thankfully, we prioritize protecting traditional values. People appreciate this, and, coupled with other circumstances, decide to return to their homeland. There are many such people, and their numbers are growing.

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Japan to send business delegation to Russia amid Ukraine war​

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[pmc]

Russia-China trade should reach over $300B. With Russia $100B trade surplus with China.
Just the import substitution and high quality food will make a difference.

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Russia and China are close to new agreements in the oil and gas industry.​

Moscow. May 9. INTERFAX.RU - Russia and China are preparing to take a major step forward in their oil and gas cooperation, Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters, answering a question about the substantive content of his upcoming visit to China.

"I won't talk about it right now. But in principle, we are at a high level of agreement on taking a serious, very significant step forward in cooperation in the gas and oil sectors," he said.

"I won't get ahead of myself on these issues. I see my colleagues have reported to me that practically all the key issues have been agreed upon. If we can finalize them and finalize them during the visit, I will be very pleased," Putin added.

In 2025, Russia supplied China with 101 million tons of oil and 49 billion cubic meters of gas (via pipelines and in the form of LNG).

In September 2025,

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signed a legally binding memorandum with its Chinese partners on the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline to China and the Soyuz-Vostok transit gas pipeline through Mongolia. This project could become the largest in the global gas industry. An agreement was also reached to increase supplies via the existing Power of Siberia pipeline from 38 to 44 billion cubic meters per year, and via the Far Eastern Route under construction from 10 to 12 billion cubic meters per year.

In addition, Kazakhstan and Russia are currently discussing the possibility of increasing the transportation of Russian oil to China through Kazakhstani territory from 10 million to 12.5 million tons per year.

Russia-Kazakh trade is expected to be $30B.

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It is implied in this survey there are additional 2.3 Single family homes that people are capable of paying and those people follow traditional values. Russia current capability is 500K individual homes construction per year.

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Individual housing construction as a demographic anchor: families living in private homes demonstrate higher birth rates
The preference for detached houses as a form of residence is confirmed by VTsIOM surveys, according to which approximately 2.3 million families are willing to take advantage of mortgage terms to achieve their housing goals.

by scale of Energy use Russia is third largest economy of the World. yes Water is also energy and so as natural Gas and this directly impact Single family home construction.

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The cost depends on the area (in individual housing construction, the calculation is based on the area of the building footprint). The larger the house, the lower the cost per square meter. Sometimes this difference can reach 25%.

For example, when building a pre-finished 80-square-meter aerated concrete house, the price per square meter is 73,000 rubles, while for a 180-square-meter house, this cost would be 55,000 rubles per square meter.

Currently, a 120-square-meter house made of aerated concrete costs 5.6 million rubles with the "warm contour" package and 7.4 million rubles with pre-finishing. For natural-moisture timber, the prices are 5.3 million and 6.6 million rubles, respectively. [Editor's note: Prices are valid for the Irkutsk region, the region where the contractor operates.]

The special about this Robot is that it is Civilian version of ground robot used in Ukraine. its 500KG weight battery power but its tracked and heavy power gives it that energy for deep snow removal for its size. The size has to be small that it can be carried in municipal truck and used on Sidewalk and rotation in small court yards. Military drives Civilian innovation.
In Tatarstan, municipal snow removal robots have been developed.

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Russia is going to create new generation Robotics engineers but with high moral values. that is extremely high bar to cross when you think who they are competing against.

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A new generation of engineers for Russian robotics​

"Our goal is to create 'Generation 2040.' By this, I mean a person with a broad library of qualities, high intellectual competencies, and high moral values," concluded Alexander Afanasyev.

 

[pmc]

Russia has created this new ranking instead of Human development index that RT social well being Index. what they are conveying in this Index is that Arabian Peninsula is at the Top of Social Well Being. to add credibility they added small European countries in the ranking.

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The triumph of the Arabian sheikhs
At the top of the ranking of nations by the Social Well-Being Index, we see Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. What distinguishes them from other countries is not so much their wealth (in terms of per-capita GDP, Saudi Arabia ranks 22nd and Kuwait 25th globally) as a level of fertility rare among modern wealthy nations (total fertility rate of 2.1 in Kuwait and 2.4 in Saudi Arabia), which ensures natural population growth among the indigenous population.

This Russia estimate.

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Russia expects to welcome 200,000 tourists from Saudi Arabia in 2026.​

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/

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May 11, 2026, 11:02 AM
Moscow. May 11, INTERFAX – The entry into force of a visa-free regime between Russia and Saudi Arabia could increase tourist flow from that country by 30-50%, to 200,000 tourists by 2026, stated Nikita Kondratyev, Director of the Department of Multilateral Economic Cooperation and Special Projects at the Russian Ministry of Economic Development.
"Russia is interested in the influx of visitors from Saudi Arabia, which is showing steady growth. While 108,000 tourists from the kingdom visited the country in 2024, by the end of 2025, this figure will have grown by 33%, exceeding 140,000 trips. Similar to other visa-free regimes, we see this step as an opportunity to increase tourist flow by another 30 to 50%. And, of course, we hope to reach the 200,000-tourist threshold from Saudi Arabia by the end of 2026," the ministry's press service quoted him as saying.

Russia has started new programme since 2022 for unmarried muslim girls from 16 to 22 age in CIS countries and take home pay is $860 to $1800 per month with basically free accomodation. The biggest Industrial zone is 200km from Kazan where that Shaheed Drone and related eco system is built. Without continuous entry of young people this scale of Industrialization cannot happen and without Soft Power impossible to manage 6.2m foreign workers.

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An outflow of young professionals or a long-term investment in Uzbekistan's economy?​

One of the most notable examples is the development of the international "Alabuga Start"

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, initiated by the Alabuga Special Economic Zone (Republic of Tatarstan, Russia). Launched in 2022, it aims to attract young women from CIS countries to professional development and work in high-tech enterprises. Over the course of three years, the program has not only enabled participants to provide for themselves but also enabled many to provide systematic support to their families.
HOUSING, WORK AND HIGH WAGES
The program is aimed at young, ambitious women aged 16 to 22 from the CIS countries who are ready to relocate to Tatarstan and build a career with a major company. They can participate without work experience or relevant education – "Alabuga Start" gives them the opportunity to take their first steps in their career, secure a well-paid job, and become independent individuals.
The company pays for participants' flights to Russia, provides comprehensive employment support, and provides accommodation in modern corporate hostels at a discounted rate (just $44 per month). Of course, salary is one of the main incentives – women can earn between $860 and $1,783 per month in take-home pay.

The counter part to Kazan is new Putin district outside Grozny. this future population growth and skill development. Just like Kazan host largest Islamic forum they want to do similar events in Grozny. that giant exhibition center is being built.



I have doubt many people surviving this education system without Soft Power as the duration is also increasing.

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The Ministry of Education and Science has issued a reminder of changes that will take effect in the 2026/27 academic year admissions campaign. The new rules will affect state-funded places, targeted tuition, examinations, and documents.
One of the major changes will be an increase in the number of state-funded places. In total, approximately 620,000 applicants will be eligible for free education. The largest number of places have been allocated:
— for engineering specialties — 263.8 thousand,
- pedagogical - 79 thousand,
- medical - 57.7 thousand.
The targeted admissions system will also change. The targeted quota will now be determined not as a percentage, but as a specific number of places. For the 2026/27 academic year, 83,000 places are allocated for targeted education.
Significant changes will affect entrance exams:
— Physics will again become mandatory for most engineering fields,
— the number of specialties requiring the Unified State Exam in history will increase from 29 to 43,
— From 2027, future teachers will be required to take a specialized subject.
At the same time, the cost of paid tuition will increase. According to preliminary estimates, prices will increase by approximately 10.7% compared to last year. For a number of specializations, the authorities will also limit the number of paid places.
The application process will also change. Starting in 2026, applicants will only be able to submit applications through Gosuslugi, in person, or by mail. Universities will be prohibited from using their own online systems.
The Ministry of Education and Science states that the changes are aimed at improving the quality of education and aligning universities more closely with the needs of the labor market.

 

[magmunta]

Russia's GDP growth target for 2026 has been reduced from 1.3 to 0.4 percent.

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[pmc]

GDP growth cannot happen until labor resources transformed for new business, transition to Solid mineral based economy.
strong currency and implementing traditional values is the most expensive drag on GDP

Command of economy shifts towards those with greater traditional values than the future employees should have the same values. They gave 52m number of children and youth in country. 1/3 of population.

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They plan to morally enrich young people through chatbots.​

Information support will be extended to participants and graduates of Rosmolodezh programs. All of the agency's activities are part of the national project "Youth and Children," which covers 52 million people, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko announced at the annual meeting of the Rosmolodezh board on April 10, 2026. Rosmolodezh head Grigory Gurov stated at the time that the agency has set several ideological goals. For example, "to create a unified environment for education and youth policy <...> to build work with underserved audiences and young people in difficult life situations."

Zelenky on his telegram channel posted that Russia planning mineral extraction in Ukraine.

Report by the head of the GUR, Oleg Ivashchenko. We have clear documents on the plans for the Russians to use our temporarily occupied territory. In the southern Ukrainian lands that are currently under occupation, Russia is planning virtually the same processes of plunder and deindustrialization that it carried out in the occupied Donbas. It is planned to conduct geological exploration, rapid extraction and export of valuable raw materials from at least 18 deposits, namely: titanium, lithium, tantalum, niobium, zircon, molybdenum and graphite. The occupiers are also planning further measures to seize and export this year's grain harvest. We are preparing to counter.

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This time they added Mongolia to Euro Asian Rare earth conference. Russia and Kazakhstan are well known in minerals. The added description for the other two countries. Afghan is called Periodic of minerals. This will train people that will work across the countries all the way to Ukraine and Arctic.

​

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The Fifth Eurasian Conference "Rare and Rare Earth Metals 2026" is a professional platform that annually brings together industry players from geological exploration to final product manufacturing. In 2026, representatives from Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Mongolia participated in the conference in Moscow.

Vitaly Vovk, Deputy Director of the Industrial Policy Department, spoke at the conference on behalf of the Eurasian Economic Commission. His remarks were perhaps the most pointed in the forum's history: for the first time, an EEC official so bluntly addressed the gap between the union's raw materials potential and its actual position in the global value chain.
Rare earth metals are not a single resource, but a group of 17 chemical elements plus scandium and yttrium. Their key feature is that without them, the modern technological economy literally cannot function. Electric vehicle motors, wind turbine blades, permanent magnets, oil refining catalysts, and military optics—they're all about REEs.

Kyrgyzstan has reserves of rare metals in its mountainous regions. Mongolia is one of the largest rare earth metal producers in the region, actively developing mining with Chinese capital. Both countries participated in the conference as potential cooperation partners.
Important: China controls approximately 60% of the world's rare earth metal production and over 85% of the capacity for their separation and refining. It is at the separation stage that the majority of added value is generated. The EAEU, with its 17%+ share of reserves, effectively subsidizes Chinese high-tech industry by selling it unprocessed raw materials.

Kyrgystan is part of Euro Asian economic Union. this further integrate economics and labor of Afghan and Uzbek to Russia. Russia is largest export market for Uzbekistan products and Afghan is the third largest.

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Uzbekistan has increased exports to Afghanistan to half a billion dollars since the beginning of the year​

The head of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry emphasized that the intensification of cooperation with Kabul is the result of direct instructions from the head of state. Thanks to the introduction of new financial instruments and mechanisms, as well as simplified logistics (cargo delivery takes 3-4 days), the export potential in this direction is estimated to be extremely high.

"If last year our total exports amounted to $1.8 billion, then this year we can easily reach $4 billion," noted Davron Vakhabov, calling on domestic producers to more actively develop the ready-to-consume market.

This continuation of building equipment based on Solid minerals. I think several teams in Russia working on Lithography.

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Russia may have its own ultra-precise lithograph at the 1-3 nanometer level: Information about the technology's development has emerged​

Russian physicists from the Keldysh Center and TRINITI have developed a device that vaporizes rare earth metals to produce X-rays . This could become the basis for the creation of domestic lithography equipment at the 1-3 nanometer level—at least on par with the most advanced developments of ASML (a US-controlled company). A report on the development was published in 2025-2026 in the Russian scientific journal "Advances in Applied Physics" (

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). What is this about?

In the race to miniaturize transistors, conventional photolithography is reaching its physical limit—a wavelength of 13.5 nm, the same wavelength used by the Dutch company ASML. Russian scientists from the Keldysh Center, TRINITI, and the Institute of Spectroscopy of the Russian Academy of Sciences propose jumping to the next level: to the X-ray range with a wavelength of 6.7 nm . This will allow transistors to be packed onto substrates even more densely than current photomasks allow.

Generating such intense radiation requires a special substance— plasma . The study's authors demonstrated that vapors of refractory rare earth metals, gadolinium and terbium, provide maximum efficiency (converting laser energy into x-rays).

The main challenge in modern lithographs is not the final laser power, but how to extend the life of the optics . Traditional methods of delivering the target (tin droplets, foil, or solid particles) have a fatal flaw: the material does not evaporate completely. Micron-sized fragments scatter throughout the vacuum chamber, settle on mirrors, and destroy expensive pumps. Attempts to solve this problem by synchronizing the droplets with laser pulses are being made , but this is technically challenging and requires cumbersome cooling systems.
To melt gadolinium in a refractory crucible, the authors proposed using an electron beam generator. This technology, unlike standard lasers, can operate not in a vacuum, but in a buffer gas (argon or helium), which is critical for the lithograph.

According to scientists' calculations, such heating requires a power output of approximately 1.2 kW, which is quite realistic for modern electronic generators . Moreover, using heat-reflecting screens (for example, with a silver coating) can significantly reduce heat loss.

The Keldysh Center's work hasn't previously been discussed in the context of new lithograph development in Russia . What makes it unique? Its focus is specifically on creating an industrial target feeder for the 6.7 nm X-ray range using high-temperature metals. No foreign equivalents of such a compact system for creating a gadolinium gas target with a highly efficient conversion efficiency have been publicly reported .

If the project is successful, it will give Russian microelectronics a real chance to leapfrog several technological generations by creating a lithograph capable of producing chips at a topological level unachievable using classical ultraviolet technology.

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Novosibirsk State University presented a design concept for the Oryol-7 X-ray lithograph.​

" This collaborative work should lead to the creation of equipment that will enable Russian microelectronics to advance far beyond the 28-nanometer limit. This is a critical milestone for the third transition in microelectronics (the first transition is from visible to deep ultraviolet radiation, and the second is to extreme ultraviolet radiation) ," emphasized Dmitry Shcheglov, one of the project's authors, a researcher at the NSU Center for Artificial Intelligence and the head of a laboratory at the Institute of Semiconductor Physics SB RAS .

 

[magmunta]

Self-explanatory:

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