Think of this thread as a prediction based on consensus from other threads. I am predicting an acceleration of change regarding status of China.
-----2022:
Economy: China getting 4% gdp growth while rest of world suffers heavy inflation and recession. But beyond numbers China will gain great progress in high tech such as lithography. Chinese EV begins its global domination.
Military: besides things we already know like 003, biggest event would be rapid expansion of nuclear deterance.
-----2023:
Economy: Rapid expansion of global trade of China into rest of world. A stable year for China amid global crisis. Europe will experience deindustrialization from energy crisis. Chinese EV begin to appear everywhere across globe, though at small quantity at first.
Military: China will get a major boost in military power. New 003 carrier will have its J-31 operational. WS-15 is ready which leads to ramping up of J-20 production.
-----2024:
Economy: global crisis continues, and it leaks into political sphere. Many EU leaders will have been replaced due to poor economic performance. This time US election bring lots of divisiveness. People are more willing vote amid harder times. Meanwhile China is politically stable, and domestic lithography enjoys success. All is quiet in China.
Military: a relative quiet year as well. Mainly the production ramp up of existing platform. Unless H-20 reveal?
-----2025:
Economy: The global economic crisis recovers. The world once again puts attention to China noting its growth amid trouble. Chinese GDP getting extremely close to USA. China is almost fully self sufficient. Even domestic plane like C919 is making full production. However, China still need to buy foriegn products as domestic production ramp up.
Military: next generation of platforms begin to emerge. The end of "made in China 2025" 5 year plan. The turbulent time of China begin surpass USA is full of danger. I expect increased allocation to military budget to counter this pressure. Expect new carrier to begin show up in the dock mid construction.
-----2026:
Evonomy: Chinese high tech enjoys previous momentum and begin globalizing. Chinese EUV machine emerges. The west realize their previous source of income like auto industry is under threat. Expect renewed trade conflicts.
Military: Rapid emergance of new platforms thanks to extra budget. Now previous generation can expect to be cleared for export. We will finally see Chinese arm exports making waves as it deserves.
-----2027:
Economy: Chinese nominal GDP surpasses USA. This leads to alarms. The world is tense. It is never uneventful when one dominant global power is eclipsed. I wonder what crisis will happen. Good news, China is nearly independent to trade embargo now.
Military: I expect yet another carrier to emerge. More proven platform is built amid world tension.
-----2028: the home stretch.
Economy: it is evident China needs lots of resources to produce things. It exports a lot, but rarely buy products besides resources. Chinese need more space for export and world stability for resource import. Expect China having more global influence to keep the trade going.
Military: a very anxious year. Besides economy, Chinese military is also approaching USA. This brings yet another source of tension. I hope both sides are rational and things do not descend into a crisis.
2029???
Perhaps now we will have more information regarding the unificarion of Taiwan? Not this year perhaps, but we can feel its approach as China has less and less to lose. I can't predict any further now. But I think it can happen early 2030s.
-----2022:
Economy: China getting 4% gdp growth while rest of world suffers heavy inflation and recession. But beyond numbers China will gain great progress in high tech such as lithography. Chinese EV begins its global domination.
Military: besides things we already know like 003, biggest event would be rapid expansion of nuclear deterance.
-----2023:
Economy: Rapid expansion of global trade of China into rest of world. A stable year for China amid global crisis. Europe will experience deindustrialization from energy crisis. Chinese EV begin to appear everywhere across globe, though at small quantity at first.
Military: China will get a major boost in military power. New 003 carrier will have its J-31 operational. WS-15 is ready which leads to ramping up of J-20 production.
-----2024:
Economy: global crisis continues, and it leaks into political sphere. Many EU leaders will have been replaced due to poor economic performance. This time US election bring lots of divisiveness. People are more willing vote amid harder times. Meanwhile China is politically stable, and domestic lithography enjoys success. All is quiet in China.
Military: a relative quiet year as well. Mainly the production ramp up of existing platform. Unless H-20 reveal?
-----2025:
Economy: The global economic crisis recovers. The world once again puts attention to China noting its growth amid trouble. Chinese GDP getting extremely close to USA. China is almost fully self sufficient. Even domestic plane like C919 is making full production. However, China still need to buy foriegn products as domestic production ramp up.
Military: next generation of platforms begin to emerge. The end of "made in China 2025" 5 year plan. The turbulent time of China begin surpass USA is full of danger. I expect increased allocation to military budget to counter this pressure. Expect new carrier to begin show up in the dock mid construction.
-----2026:
Evonomy: Chinese high tech enjoys previous momentum and begin globalizing. Chinese EUV machine emerges. The west realize their previous source of income like auto industry is under threat. Expect renewed trade conflicts.
Military: Rapid emergance of new platforms thanks to extra budget. Now previous generation can expect to be cleared for export. We will finally see Chinese arm exports making waves as it deserves.
-----2027:
Economy: Chinese nominal GDP surpasses USA. This leads to alarms. The world is tense. It is never uneventful when one dominant global power is eclipsed. I wonder what crisis will happen. Good news, China is nearly independent to trade embargo now.
Military: I expect yet another carrier to emerge. More proven platform is built amid world tension.
-----2028: the home stretch.
Economy: it is evident China needs lots of resources to produce things. It exports a lot, but rarely buy products besides resources. Chinese need more space for export and world stability for resource import. Expect China having more global influence to keep the trade going.
Military: a very anxious year. Besides economy, Chinese military is also approaching USA. This brings yet another source of tension. I hope both sides are rational and things do not descend into a crisis.
2029???
Perhaps now we will have more information regarding the unificarion of Taiwan? Not this year perhaps, but we can feel its approach as China has less and less to lose. I can't predict any further now. But I think it can happen early 2030s.
Last edited:
