Possible Turkish incursion into Iraq

alwaysfresh

New Member
I have no idea what is happening in turkey. Main stream media is trying to change the subject and ignore this issue.

If Turkey is really waiting for something from the US and if US policy seems to be against any action. Soon I predict Turkey will be in turmoil. I have nothing against Turkey, but if I was CIA and my mandate is to follow foreign policy I will just make it basically impossible for Turkey to proceed.
 

stuborown

Just Hatched
Registered Member
I have no idea what is happening in turkey. Main stream media is trying to change the subject and ignore this issue.

If Turkey is really waiting for something from the US and if US policy seems to be against any action. Soon I predict Turkey will be in turmoil. I have nothing against Turkey, but if I was CIA and my mandate is to follow foreign policy I will just make it basically impossible for Turkey to proceed.

I'm likewise a new poster who has followed the Turkey/PKK conflict for a good number of years and have friends in both Istanbul & Ankara and even addressed University groups on a variety of subjects.

At this stage of the game, Erdogan has had a productive visit with Bush, and the 8 soldiers that had been held captive by the PKK forces have since been returned.........only to be slapped with charges by Ankara for their alleged 'failure to follow orders' which is a rather vague means of holding them for further interrogation. Meanwhile, the rescuers, members of the opposition party, are also being viewed with a great deal of suspicion.

The deal struck with the USA and the Kurd regime currently in power in Northern Iraq is a promise for the USA to deliver intel to the Turks and the Kurd's have promised to aggressively assist in flushing out the PKK forces which have been playing cat & mouse over the border. The tactic is similar to that of the Taliban who do the same thing between Afghanistan and Pakistan. That's yet another potential imbroglio in the works as Bhutto gins up the crowd against Musharraf. But that's drifting into another subject.

The troop count of 100,000 is accurately stated. However, there's a few twists to this entire story which reminds me of Sudetenland, the tipping point for WWII. For those of you who have no clue about this, it's a simple enough story. Sudetenland was engineered to make it appear that enemy forces had attacked a German unit.....in fact, the enemy forces were a ruse, they were themselves Germans. That gave Germany sufficient means to "retaliate" and is how WWII was started.

Skip forward to the present. Erdogan and Gul were, at first, denied the Presidency & Prime Minister positions, in fact, the Turkish military had made veiled threats to keep them out of office. Ultimately, the parliament finally turned the situation over to the public for a vote. Turkey is fiercely loyal to their legendary Ataturk. You dare not say anything against him and he is revered as a near deity.

The Turks do not want an Islamic government, preferring at all costs to remain secular. The suspicion was that Erdogan and Gul would lead the country into Islamic Sharia law and there was a great effort to influence voters against them, huge demonstrations and protests in Ankara and Istanbul. But Erdogan & Gul were swept into office much to the dismay of many upper crust Turks.

There's nothing more important to Turks today than preserving old hatreds toward the PKK, perhaps justifiably. The PKK is regarded as a terrorist fringe of the Kurdish population and has a nasty track record.

But it was only moments after Erdogan & Gul were, albeit reluctantly, into power that the PKK suddenly resurfaced.

I will leave it to your collective imaginations to recognize why Erdogan is now enjoying high approval ratings, including from those who most adamantly opposed him.

That's all, folks.
 

Scratch

Captain
However, there's a few twists to this entire story which reminds me of Sudetenland, the tipping point for WWII. For those of you who have no clue about this, it's a simple enough story. Sudetenland was engineered to make it appear that enemy forces had attacked a German unit.....in fact, the enemy forces were a ruse, they were themselves Germans. That gave Germany sufficient means to "retaliate" and is how WWII was started.

:eek:ff but:
The Sudetenland was affiliated to the german Reich through the "Munic Treaty" at the end of sept '38.
Half a year later, german troops annexed the rest of Czechoslovakia.
At 31Aug'39 several german "commandos" mocked polish "raids" on german "assetts", in the most famous incident on the broadcast station Gleiwitz. This was the start of WWII with the german raid of poland. :eek:ff
 

Baibar of Jalat

Junior Member
[stuborown;73268]I'm likewise a new poster who has followed the Turkey/PKK conflict for a good number of years and have friends in both Istanbul & Ankara and even addressed University groups on a variety of subjects.

At this stage of the game, Erdogan has had a productive visit with Bush, and the 8 soldiers that had been held captive by the PKK forces have since been returned.........only to be slapped with charges by Ankara for their alleged 'failure to follow orders' which is a rather vague means of holding them for further interrogation. Meanwhile, the rescuers, members of the opposition party, are also being viewed with a great deal of suspicion.

The deal struck with the USA and the Kurd regime currently in power in Northern Iraq is a promise for the USA to deliver intel to the Turks and the Kurd's have promised to aggressively assist in flushing out the PKK forces which have been playing cat & mouse over the border. The tactic is similar to that of the Taliban who do the same thing between Afghanistan and Pakistan. That's yet another potential imbroglio in the works as Bhutto gins up the crowd against Musharraf. But that's drifting into another subject.

The troop count of 100,000 is accurately stated. However, there's a few twists to this entire story which reminds me of Sudetenland, the tipping point for WWII. For those of you who have no clue about this, it's a simple enough story. Sudetenland was engineered to make it appear that enemy forces had attacked a German unit.....in fact, the enemy forces were a ruse, they were themselves Germans. That gave Germany sufficient means to "retaliate" and is how WWII was started.

Skip forward to the present. Erdogan and Gul were, at first, denied the Presidency & Prime Minister positions, in fact, the Turkish military had made veiled threats to keep them out of office. Ultimately, the parliament finally turned the situation over to the public for a vote. Turkey is fiercely loyal to their legendary Ataturk. You dare not say anything against him and he is revered as a near deity.

The Turks do not want an Islamic government, preferring at all costs to remain secular. The suspicion was that Erdogan and Gul would lead the country into Islamic Sharia law and there was a great effort to influence voters against them, huge demonstrations and protests in Ankara and Istanbul. But Erdogan & Gul were swept into office much to the dismay of many upper crust Turks.

There's nothing more important to Turks today than preserving old hatreds toward the PKK, perhaps justifiably. The PKK is regarded as a terrorist fringe of the Kurdish population and has a nasty track record.

But it was only moments after Erdogan & Gul were, albeit reluctantly, into power that the PKK suddenly resurfaced.

I will leave it to your collective imaginations to recognize why Erdogan is now enjoying high approval ratings, including from those who most adamantly opposed him.

That's all, folks.

Too much speculation. What are you saying! The islamist government are supporting Kurdish fighters directly and indirectly. How has the military and intelligence that is staunchly secular been fooled.? Am I correct in interpreting your post? If this was happening the generals would have found out and launched a coup. The reason why PKK is so active is due to the Iraq invasion. Saddam in the 90s allowed the turks to attack this group but due to US presence and strengthening of kurds in general they felt confident in their actions. using the German anology does not help in furthuring discussion.
 

Norfolk

Junior Member
VIP Professional
An AFP article carried by Iraqi Update on 23 November 2007, "Turkey lauds Iraqi Kurds for action against PKK rebels":

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The President of Turkey is praising efforts by Iraqi Kurd authorities to put the squeeze on the PKK; it seems that the 100,000 Turkish troops sitting on the Iraqi frontier have gotten their attention. The Turks are not completely excluding the possibility of attacking the PKK themselves, but it seems that things are calm for the moment. We'll see how things turn out over the coming weeks and months it seems.
 

Norfolk

Junior Member
VIP Professional
There has been a minor Turkish army strike against the PKK just inside the Iraqi border. Agence France-Presse reports that the Turkish Army has stated that 50-60 PKK terrorists were attacked with artillery and air strikes:

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Iraqi authorities are saying that so far no Turkish troops have crossed the border; the Turkish Army, which was given formal Government approval for ground operations in Iraq on November 28, has not ruled them out.
 

Raptoreyes

New Member
This situation will cause a permanant rift between the United States and Turkey, and will put a real damper on Turkey's possible EU status. EU countries don't invade other countries, regardless of the cause.

Vlad, I'm curious where you got that 100,000 troops figure from. I'm not saying its wrong. It's certainly possible; the Turks have enough troops in the area and could logically need that many if the fray becomes as bad as Crazyinsane indicated, but considering the fact that they wouldn't have to invade all of Iraqi Kurdistan (the PKK camps are very close to the border I understand) it seems to me that an incursion of several thousand troops supported by air power would be enough to do away with the lightly armed PKK (if they even stand and fight) and hold the peshmerga at bay. That would be a lot more politically acceptable.

On the other hand, the Turkish may see this as an opportunity to crush this "Kurdish independence moment". If they try to pursue that more lofty goal, then we are in for a major crisis.

This puts the US in an IMPOSSIBLE situation. We have obligations to Turkey, the Kurds and the Baghdad government. The best we can hope if the Turkish Army does go ahead with the operation, is that the PKK rolls over quickly, the more "mainstream" peshmerga units don't fight, and the Turks leave quickly. However I don't find that likely.

At first I thought it prudent for the United States just remain silent on this issue. While nothing good can come of US involvement between two groups that have highly conditional support for us, that are at odds with each other at limiting of the damage might be prudent to say the least. But the United States should offer some support to the Turks against the PKK and to act as a buffer between them and the Peshmerga with some heavy diplomatic and ambassadorial support on the ground hopefully keep things calm.

In exchange the United States would assure the Kurds that Turkey's actions will only be directed at the PKK, and would supervise the Turkish return to their own borders after the Turkish military incursions completion. Both sides would like the United States less immediately after this but it would probably be better than one site hating us for not coming to their aid. It's just so disappointing but the two major Muslim military powers that are not authoritarian or overly religious (at least not yet) are at odds with each other. If there were some way to get these two old enemies to be friends again we could definitely partner with them against the Iranians who are the real long term threat to peace and political freedom in the region.
 

Violet Oboe

Junior Member
The Iranian's are a ´long term´ threat?:roll:

Just wait for the next ´revisionist´NIE in '09 and Hillary and Ahmadinejad's ´moderate´successor will talk business about stabilizing Iraq and Afghanistan, eliminating Al Qaeda (just expect popping up bin Laden's dead body soon after a nice US-Iranian deal!) and finally participation of US oil corporations in the exploitation of the second largest hydrocarbons reserves currently available.:D
 

Norfolk

Junior Member
VIP Professional
It's just so disappointing but the two major Muslim military powers that are not authoritarian or overly religious (at least not yet) are at odds with each other. If there were some way to get these two old enemies to be friends again we could definitely partner with them against the Iranians who are the real long term threat to peace and political freedom in the region.

If, as you seem to be indicating, that Iraq is supposed to be the second major Muslim power that you are speaking of, I would not quite agree with you just yet, at least not until the Iraqi Armed Forces are fully up and running on their own. The Turks have been feared for centuries by the Arabs, and together with Iran (especially in its various incarnations as Persian empires), constitute the two major Muslim powers in the region. Both Turkey and Iran are moving closer together in their relations during recent months and years, and the Arabs are not unsurprisingly very nervous about both of them.

That said, the present governing party in Turkey has no desire to invade Iraq, whatever public sentiment and Army pressure may be brought to bear, and Government statements obscure the fact that it is struggling to keep the Army restrained. But it has no intention of confronting Iran, and instead has signed some very important deals on borders and gas pipelines, etc.
 

Raptoreyes

New Member
Norfolk said
If, as you seem to be indicating, that Iraq is supposed to be the second major Muslim power that you are speaking of, I would not quite agree with you just yet, at least not until the Iraqi Armed Forces are fully up and running on their own.

Actually for the purposes of my earlier comments I referred to the Kurds as a government onto themselves. The Sunni and Shiite of Iraq are too unstable to be considered anything more than a proto-government being carefully incubated by the United States. By contrast the northern portion of Iraq under Kurdish control has had the fact of self-government from the moment Saddam Hussein's Central Government became too weak control its northern areas. (after all the infamous mustard gas attacks ordered upon the Kurds, was nothing more than a desperate attempt to regain some semblance of sovereignty over the northern portion of Iraq)

After all have the Kurds not had their own armed forces up and running for at least that long?


The Turks have been feared for centuries by the Arabs, and together with Iran (especially in its various incarnations as Persian empires), constitute the two major Muslim powers in the region. Both Turkey and Iran are moving closer together in their relations during recent months and years, and the Arabs are not unsurprisingly very nervous about both of them.

That said, the present governing party in Turkey has no desire to invade Iraq, whatever public sentiment and Army pressure may be brought to bear, and Government statements obscure the fact that it is struggling to keep the Army restrained. But it has no intention of confronting Iran, and instead has signed some very important deals on borders and gas pipelines, etc.

I have long worried about Turkey's flirtation with Iran. As much as Iranian people do not deserve an embargo of their country, the Iranian government by contrast is richly deserving of one. Iran's religious dictatorship would've fallen long ago without its ability to pump its government revenue straight out of the ground. If the Iraqi government can be made strong enough to stand on its own, then future sanctions against Iran could begin in earnest, once oil pumping capacity in Iraq returns the peak levels. (Or we experience unexpected progress developing energy alternatives, in our near future)

Hopefully Turkey is just biding its time and has not truly become friendly with Iran. After all the United States is no friend of the Iranian government and it still buys petroleum because there's no real option as of yet. Turkey has no real interest in nurturing its enemy in Terhan as the excuse of having to deal with a larger threat first, is not present, in this particular case. Hopefully the Turkish government is simply playing the fool in order to get some oil while keeping its eyes wide open when viewing the serpent, whose company it must keep.
 
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