Possible Turkish incursion into Iraq

If Turkey does invade and brings Iran with them, expect this bill to come back very quickly.

Yikes, this is scary news:

The Kurdish Connection

The Badr Corps is the armed wing of SCIRI, which is now an Iranian-aligned Iraqi Shiite political party. But before the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, they were "organizationally indistinguishable" from Iran's Revolutionary Guards.

So in other words, the office that was raided this past January (think the Cockburn story from a couple days ago) was established as a result of Iranian-Kurdish contacts going back six years, to well before the American invasion. Which could explain why the Kurds were willing to get into a tense armed standoff with American forces to protect the Iranian intelligence officers we were after.

Not only is there a lot we don't know about the Irbil incident, I'm guessing it's pretty damning stuff. Something along the lines of our good friends the Kurds, the one success story of the entire invasion, are actually buddy-buddy with our worst enemy, Iran.


Now from what I understand, the Kurds are tribal and different tribes have different loyalties. Iran and Turkey both have problems with the PKK and the PJAK and not with the majority of northern Iraqi Kurds. And Iran has had deep connections with the mainstream Kurds from the Iran-Iraq war all the way towards the US invasion. So yes, it makes plenty of sense that northern Iraq is used as a waypoint for the Iranians to resupply Hezbullah via Syria. And since northern Iraq is manned by very few US troops, it seems like the safest route.

ccL1 said:

If Turkey undertakes a full-scale invasion of Kurdistan, they will risk condemnation from the US and the EU, but there will be no economic or political punishment faced by Turkey. They probably won't be admitted into the EU for sure.

On the other hand, if Iran invaded Kurdistan (even jointly with Turkey), it might give the US the impetus to finally strike Iran. Because it's obvious that the US wants to invade Iran, but it does not want to take the pre-emptive approach that it did against Iraq, since domestic support and international support from allies of such a strike would be little to none. The US wants Iran to look like the aggressors, and an Iranian invasion of Kurdistan will be painted as an aggressive move by the US government and the media. t taking Iran/Turkey's side for the moment (I'm actually neutral), it would be best for Iran to stay away from the conflict, while letting Turkey do it's job.

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To say that there will be no economic or political punishment for Turkey's invasion of Kurdistan is (forgive me) somewhat short sighted. If Turkey's potential EU membership has been endangered by the introduction of the "genocide resolution" into the US House of Representatives as many suspect that it has, such an invasion would constitute the ultimate kiss of death. The purported issues barring its entry into the EU concern "human rights", to wit, a.) the Armenian/Ottoman debacle in 1915 and b.), Turkey's handling of the Kurds. From this political issue emanates the matter of Turkey's growing economy which, through doors that EU membership would open, could only be enhanced thereby benefiting the entire region.
Turkey currently walks a political tightrope between yielding to pressure from the growing fundamentalist movement within the Turkish Parliament or holding steadfast to its traditional loyalty to Western allies. Needless to say, she cannot have it all. Whichever choice she makes, both her economy and her politics will be irrevocably affected. Mineralogically, touristically and industrially, Turkey is the world's yet undiscovered sleeping giant. Is the West prepared to deal with the results of a complete and intractable fundamentalist takeover of these resources?

Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan has said the Turkish army will go ahead with an operation against Kurdish guerrillas in northern Iraq, but diplomats suggested on Tuesday any action would be limited in scope.

Erdogan held talks with U.S. President George W. Bush on Monday to push Washington to crack down on some 3,000 Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) separatists using northern Iraq as a base for attacks in Turkey.

Bush said after their meeting that he was committed to countering the PKK, which he called their "common enemy" and offered to share intelligence with Turkey, a NATO ally.

While the talks yielded positive results they were unlikely to be enough to allow Turkey to step back from pursuing a military offensive, even if limited to air strikes and special operations, Turkish diplomats said.

"The U.S. has agreed to give Turkey 'actionable intelligence' and that means allowing us to take military action against the PKK once we have real time information," a Turkish diplomat told Reuters.

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Erdogan said he had given Bush a list of five demands he wanted the United States to take against the PKK. These included shutting down PKK camps and cutting off logistical support.

"We got what we wanted," Erdogan said. "Nobody is telling us not to do an operation," he added.

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Source:

In a more unsettling report:

Turkey, taking into consideration the ongoing assaults by the PKK terrorists in the southeastern regions and the measureless backup given by US government to Iraqi Kurds, has drawn up a new strategic alliance policy that weakens ties with the US and strengthens relations with Iran and Syria, their millennium-long neighbors.

The US has failed to keep its promise to Turkey to confront the PKK. Turkey now feels that it has no choice but to attack the PKK's sanctuaries in northern Iraq together with Iran.

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The second stage is the escalation of high-level cooperation between Turkey, Iran and Syria and this is moving forward, as well.

Aversion to American global policy, in particular to the actions of the US in Iraq, the common allies of Syria and Iran, and also shared economic interests, will lead to the merging of the political strategies of Russia and Turkey. Countries that were previously historical opponents will turn into partners in the creation of a new Eurasian coalition.

The final effect of the region's aversion to American policies will be the formation of the "union of four:" Russia, Turkey, Iran and Syria. Of course, this rapprochement between Ankara, Moscow, Damascus and Teheran will definitely affect Washington's position in the Middle East.

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Source:

Turks genuinely suspect that American policies are targeting their country's territorial integrity. The essence of yesterday's meeting for Turkey was to test that suspicion. It was no accident that Erdogan was accompanied by Deputy Joint Chiefs of Staff Ergin Saygun, at the White House. Between the military, which serves as the guardian of Turkey's secular government, and the political rule of the Islamist-rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP), Turkey is conveying a unified front in dealing with the Kurdish separatist threat.

Now the Turkish establishment will make a crucial assessment: deciding whether to continue to trust the United States, their NATO ally, or to test a regional effort to deal with the matter that would include Russia and Iran.

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Source:

Turkey heading SCO'wards. told you so!:nana:

I cant say I am that surprised, would like to say more but do not want to set a bad example

Looks like the PKK wants peace talks, and with no action from Turkey or Iran, I think we can exclude any military action for now. However, after winter is over, that may be another matter...

Don't be stupid. This isn't the first time the PKK has offered something, whether it's a ceasefire, peace talks, or disarmament Turkey never cooperates with the PKK. When the PKK declares a cease fire, Turkey just keeps shooting.

From what I'm reading it seems the military is really just biding its time and waiting to see how serious the U.S. and Iraqis are about going after the PKK.

Vlad Plasmius said:

Don't be stupid. This isn't the first time the PKK has offered something, whether it's a ceasefire, peace talks, or disarmament Turkey never cooperates with the PKK. When the PKK declares a cease fire, Turkey just keeps shooting.

From what I'm reading it seems the military is really just biding its time and waiting to see how serious the U.S. and Iraqis are about going after the PKK.

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Yeah you do have a point, plus Turkey hasn't scaled back any of its troops from the border either. Does anybody know by any chance how much it costs per day for Turkey to station that many troops by the border?

I have no clue man, but I would think it's nothing the Turkey government couldn't afford; their forces are still within Turkey's border, so the supply line isn't stretched by any measure.

Actually there is indeed some controversy in the turkish press about the potential cost of a full scale invasion since the limited incursions into northern Iraq back in 1996/97 had a quite heavy price tag. Incidentally the objective in '97 was at first to establish some kind of permanent trans border security zone but steady combat losses and dismal logistics (though today infrastructure on the turkish side of the border is dramatically improved!) forced the turkish army to withdraw from the ´zone´after a couple of months.

PKK seems to be on ´low profile´for now but every incident could trigger a turkish strike...