I watched it so you don't have to. But, eh, I don't see a clear stance really. On one hand the person says Chinese navy has pretty much reached the point where additional new destroyers aren't needed. But then later on, he says when a new generation of ships is ready, that the dumplings will continue.
Of course, we're talking about a random Youtuber, so his opinion is not necessarily really worth more than yours or mine on this forum.
Well, it all depends on what you think the current fleet plan is. That would inform construction for the next 10 years.
But that is dependent on:
1. How large one thinks the Chinese economy will be in 10 year's time (Low/Med/High)
2. How much military spending will increase due to the Cold War arms race within this timescale (Low/Med/High)
3. The priority placed on Blue Water capabilities versus Taiwan (and the rest of the 1st Island Chain)
4. The objectives for 2030
From that you can construct a number of possible naval fleet compositions for a 2030 timeframe.
In terms of Destroyers and Frigates, I reckon current production levels will continue for the 2021-2025 and 2026-2030 periods.
But the current plan would see surface warship production being diverted to more carriers.
Of course, the plans will most likely be revised (upwards) to reflect the conditions in 2025.
It is true, however, that pretty much all the destroyers PLAN has are either newly build or have been modernized in the last 10 years. So, I don't see large scale retirements in the coming few years. Any additional destroyers would have to come on top of everything else. Increasing personnel numbers and requirements.
Just how much room is there to increase personnel is next to impossible to say. We seem to be seeing those 056 corvettes being replaced with additional 054A frigates. That in itself will require a pretty big jump in personnel. Carriers are a whole new class - each new carrier will require even more additional personnel. Not sure about landing ships - but if the older ones don't get retired in big numbers, then new 071 and 075/076 will also require additional personnel being recruited.
Same will likely be true for nuke sub crews. I don't see those replacing the old conventional subs, personnel numbers wise. It's more likely the overall number of submarine crews will shoot up in the coming years.
Just where the limit is in PLAN's requirements - how many sailors does it plan to enlist? Who knows. But such a figure could be key in answering just how many more new ships will we see in coming years.
Just remember that the Chinese Army always receives sufficient volunteers for its manpower slots, and doesn't have to resort to conscription. I expect this also applies to the Chinese Navy.
And manpower costs in China are particularly low in comparison to the value of the surface ships, so it doesn't make sense to skimp on personnel recruitment. Nor should recruiting sufficient numbers of volunteer personnel serve as a limit to the fleet expansion. The time required to train and gain experience is more relevant.
I recall mention some years ago that ships were previously 25% overmanned to accommodate the influx of new builds.