PLAN building schedule 2021 to 2025


Totoro

Captain
VIP Professional
While looking 5 years into the future is never easy, ships and submarines are fairly large items, often needing a few years of prep time before they get launched. During which we usually get some news and rumors on which we can base our projections.

So the question of this thread is: how many, and of what kind, ships and submarines will get launched into water from the start of 2021 before the end of the year 2025? We already had some vessels launching in 2021 and 2022 should also be fairly easy to predict, with ships that will launch then already being visibly
under construction.
But what about 2023, 2024 and 2025? What can we base our projection on for those years?
We have that rumor of 20 054A frigates. Who's to say if all 20 will be launched by 2025?
Who's to say if any 054B will manage to get launched by then?
Is there any news suggesting that any further 075 or even 076 could get launched by then?
The same question could be applied to 071.
We also had some 072 launched five years ago, so maybe it's possible additional batch may be launched to replace old ones?
Are 056 done or is there a source stating more could be made?
Is there a source stating when can we expect additional 055s?
And what will be of 052D class, when can we see those stop being built?

Submarines are much harder, though. We don't even know how many 039As got launched in latter half of 2010s. And even on 093s there are differing opinions. So predicting 2021 to 2025 seems like mission impossible, if one wants to use any actual sources and proper indications, instead of just gut feelings.
 

AndrewS

Colonel
Registered Member
Well, my view is that from now to 2030 is the riskiest point in the US-China power transition.
So it would be better to front-load military spending now in 2021-2025, balancing with lower spending growth in the future.

On submarines, we've seen the 2 new construction halls recently open.
But we're definitely not going to get any public announcements at all on submarines

Otherwise, actual naval construction is speculation as usual.
 

Totoro

Captain
VIP Professional
The idea of the thread is to try and aggregate actual news bits, rumors from respectable shrimps (pop3 et al) and photos that would indicate a certain number of vessels being either planned to be ordered or started construction (to be launched within a year or two).

I do believe there should be a somewhat accurate prediction possible up to 2023 or so. With 2024 and later being mostly speculation without proper proof/indications.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Senior Member
Registered Member
So it would be better to front-load military spending now in 2021-2025, balancing with lower spending growth in the future.
I'd prefer a strategy of front-loading military spending now and then having even higher spending in the future.
The idea of the thread is to try and aggregate actual news bits, rumors from respectable shrimps (pop3 et al)
In that spirit, there's a rumour that the first 054B has started construction.

This article by @Bltizo is a good primer:
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Totoro

Captain
VIP Professional
Ok, so I'll give it a try.

For 056 - there is no rumor from a credible source or a news piece on further ships being under construction. For almost two years now, there has not been any 056 ships contracted for PLAN under construction. So I'd rate 056 may be finished and there is no indication there would be further ships ordered.

054A - we have that fairly credible rumor that a batch of as many as 20 ships is underway. We have seen the first two ships of that batch already launched this summer, and two more are in visible stages of construction. So it seems the pace is rather high, mimicking the pace of the previous batches. One might conclude that the new batch will be made at a pace of 2 to 3 new frigates launched each year, starting with 2021. If so, that'd suggest that in the 2021 to 2025 period some 12 or more frigates 054A might be launched.

054B - we have the rumor coming from pop3 about 054b starting production. But as far as I can tell, there is no further info. We don't know what stage of construction that is. We don't know when the first one might be launched. And we don't know how many might be made at the same time. My personal guess is, because 052D production seems to have either ended or paused, that the shipyards making 052D will switch to the 054B. And that the shipyards making 054A will continue making the A variant simultaneously to B variant.
Bottom line: Precise number hard to predict. But likely, first ship should not be launched before late 2023/early 2024. (we had rumor of 055 starting construction in 2014 but first modules were observed in shipyard one year later. And then, even for a frigate, it should be at least another year before launch) So depending on how careful the production plan is, how well it all goes, anywhere between 2 to 6 054B ships launched by the end of 2025 seems likely. Of course, it could be more, but there's no way to predict PLAN will be bold enough to go super fast with a new type so quickly.

052D - as mentioned, the current batch seems to have ended as the 25th ship has launched in 2020. For a year now, there haven't been any new Ds observed under construction in any of the shipyards. It's impossible to predict if further ships will be ordered. My gut feeling says it's unlikely, with 054B needing production space and that more 055 is likely to have priority over further 052D orders. But there's just no way to prove it either way.

055 - seems to have ended its first production batch run after 8 ships launched. As with the previous destroyer, the last ship was launched a year ago and no other 055s have been observed under construction. But unlike 052D, there should be much higher chances of another batch coming eventually. We had even rumors back in the day that the second batch is a sure thing but of course - when a second batch might start and how many ships might it entail - that's pure guesswork. If it's indeed a modified 055 with new tech, then we might have to wait for longer. Even if parts for a new 055 are observed tomorrow, it'd likely not get launched until late 2023. (that's a bit compressed schedule compared to first 055, with little over 2 years from first module images to launch) Following a similar launch schedule to the first batch, we might be looking at up to 7 ships launched by the end of 2025. But it could also be fewer. And if it's a new variant, with IEPS and what not - the whole process might be more protracted and only a couple or even none might launch by 2025.

Carriers - pretty much just 003 should get launched. Definitely sometime next year, at the latest. So far there have been no new modules for new carrier observed. There have been, however, some rumors about the follow up carrier starting construction, but those have come from SCMP newspaper so i'm not sure how credible those are. Even if we see first modules this fall, it would likely take at least 3 and a half years before launch. So, a launch sometime in 2025 would be possible, technically. But given that there are no proper indications of a new carrier starting construction, I'm leaning more towards no new carrier launch by 2025.

075 - we have no indications more are under construction. There have been rumors that up to 5 additional ships will be made, but I am not sure just how credible those rumors are. Nor are there any timetables given. So, is it 5 more within 5 years? 10 years? Who knows. This one is a wild guess. It could be zero new ships launched by 2025 or it could be several.

071 - similar to the above class. No way to know. There are, again, rumors of unknown credibility of 8 more ships but without details it could be zero or several ships by 2025. Since same shipyards would likely be building 071 and 075, I find it unlikely that "several" could apply for both classes at the same time up until 2025. So either up to several of one class or up to a couple of both classes. But once again, it could just as well be zero.

072 - there've been five new ships constructed and launched, out of the blue, around 2015. Replacing some of the old 072s. So while unlikely, it's possible a few more will be made. But there's zero indication of that so it's pure guesswork.

Then we have the submarines.
There is likely something going on with new nuclear attack subs. Whether the next few will be 093B or 095, we simply lack info. That being said, nuke subs, complete with 094 class, do seem to be a priority for PLAN. So a rough continuation of nuke sub launch numbers seems like a minimum. And given the new facility being almost ready, even a higher launch rate would be plausible, even likely. We had at a minimum 7 nuke boats (093 and 094) launched in 2010s. Though even that figure might be in reality higher. We just don't know. So at least half that number is possible for up to 2025. Or maybe just as many subs may be launched in half the time. Too little info, sadly.

Conventional subs are just as hard to predict as nuke ones. We seem to have lost count of 039A and later variants sometime after 2013. Some claim as many as 7 new subs launched since then. Some claim fewer, but no one has any good indications. Given that Songs do need replacement, at least several, but possibly as many as 10 new conventional subs might indeed be launched in 2021 to 2025 period. No way to know really.

If you do have any link, an article, a publication, social media post by a respectable big shrimp, or even a photo - do post it here. So we may, over time, get a more clear picture of PLAN's plans for the period up to 2025.
 

AndrewS

Colonel
Registered Member
052D - as mentioned, the current batch seems to have ended as the 25th ship has launched in 2020. For a year now, there haven't been any new Ds observed under construction in any of the shipyards. It's impossible to predict if further ships will be ordered. My gut feeling says it's unlikely, with 054B needing production space and that more 055 is likely to have priority over further 052D orders. But there's just no way to prove it either way.

The Type-054 frigates use a separate set of shipyards to the Type-052/055 destroyers.

There is ample space in all these shipyards for much higher construction rates for both Frigates and Destroyers, assuming civilian construction finishes.
 

AndrewS

Colonel
Registered Member
Then we have the submarines.
There is likely something going on with new nuclear attack subs. Whether the next few will be 093B or 095, we simply lack info. That being said, nuke subs, complete with 094 class, do seem to be a priority for PLAN. So a rough continuation of nuke sub launch numbers seems like a minimum. And given the new facility being almost ready, even a higher launch rate would be plausible, even likely. We had at a minimum 7 nuke boats (093 and 094) launched in 2010s. Though even that figure might be in reality higher. We just don't know. So at least half that number is possible for up to 2025. Or maybe just as many subs may be launched in half the time. Too little info, sadly.

It's not just 1 new submarine assembly hall.

The 1st new submarine assembly hall could fit 12 SSNs (or 3 SSBNs) at once.
The 2nd new submarine assembly hall could fit another 8 SSNs (or 2 SSBNs) at the same time.

Given that the Virginia SSN blocks take as little as 10 months to assemble, you end up with ridiculously high numbers in terms of potential production capacity.

That compares with roughly 1 per year previously for SSNs and SSBNs.
 

Maikeru

Junior Member
Registered Member
It's not just 1 new submarine assembly hall.

The 1st new submarine assembly hall could fit 12 SSNs (or 3 SSBNs) at once.
The 2nd new submarine assembly hall could fit another 8 SSNs (or 2 SSBNs) at the same time.

Given that the Virginia SSN blocks take as little as 10 months to assemble, you end up with ridiculously high numbers in terms of potential production capacity.

That compares with roughly 1 per year previously for SSNs and SSBNs.
I think that is an overestimate. Looking at the imagery here:
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there is one completed 3x hall with a much smaller 1x hall next to it, and another 3x or 4x hall under construction. On that basis I reckon
3x SSBN + 1x SSN for the existing halls, 3 or 4 x SS(B)N in new hall, although from the imagery I think the new hall has smaller track width so probably SSN. Not sure how feasible it is to construct subs 1 behind the other on the same trackway, as the hull sections go in rear first.

Also do we know if the original small hall on the other side of the shipyard is still in use? I would guess not but nothing to confirm that.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Senior Member
Registered Member
12 or more frigates 054A
between 2 to 6 054B
up to 7 [055] ships
That's the summary of your post, the rest is zero or "I dunno lol". Take a look at how many ships China launched between 2015 and 2020 and examine whether what you just wrote is reasonable.
I think that is an overestimate. Looking at the imagery here:
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there is one completed 3x hall with a much smaller 1x hall next to it, and another 3x or 4x hall under construction. On that basis I reckon
3x SSBN + 1x SSN for the existing halls, 3 or 4 x SS(B)N in new hall, although from the imagery I think the new hall has smaller track width so probably SSN. Not sure how feasible it is to construct subs 1 behind the other on the same trackway, as the hull sections go in rear first.
The numbers you responded to aren't random guesswork and "I reckon" like yours. They are measurements:
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Maikeru

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think that is an overestimate. Looking at the imagery here:
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there is one completed 3x hall with a much smaller 1x hall next to it, and another 3x or 4x hall under construction. On that basis I reckon
3x SSBN + 1x SSN for the existing halls, 3 or 4 x SS(B)N in new hall, although from the imagery I think the new hall has smaller track width so probably SSN. Not sure how feasible it is to construct subs 1 behind the other on the same trackway, as the hull sections go in rear first.

Also do we know if the original small hall on the other side of the shipyard is still in use? I would guess not but nothing to confirm that.
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