Plan Basing Strategies (international): News, Views, Pics

I just don't see how the PRC would have overseas bases. Ports of call and temporary basing under extraordinary circumstances is one thing, permanent bases is another. I think the main reason the PRC pursued carrier development is so that they can avoid needing overseas bases even when they have to send an expeditionary force somewhere.

Overseas PRC bases don't stand a chance if we are looking at scenarios where the US is hostile. In any other scenario where any other power is hostile, diplomacy, retreat, or an expeditionary force working with friendly local forces would probably be preferred by the PRC. Overseas PRC bases would just raise red flags of all kinds all over, regardless of whether it is deserved or not, they therefore are unaffordable politically/diplomatically especially if the PRC wants to undeniably stick to non-interference in other countries' internal affairs.

The one exception which I really can't see as realistic right now is if the US accepts the PRC as an ally in militarily maintaining order wherever there is going to be an overseas PRC base, and the PRC wanting to take on that role. Anything is possible but I just don't see it right now or even five years from now, ten years from now maybe.

HAPA said:

Cuba is a good place to put a base. Cuba is under threat by the u.s and need some back up. taiwan is another place that needs a base. The u.s. regime doesn't hesitate to put a base in somewhere to keep the local govt in check, and China needs to do the same. More details on what needs to be done.

1. Radar sites on taiwans mountaintops to monitor u.S. Navy ships in the Pacific.

2. Deep-water naval bases at Su Ao and Hualien would provide a safe haven for submarines in the deepest maritime trench in the Pacific.

3. Pratas Reef would provide the navy with a base equidistant from hong Kong and taiwan

4. Tai ping dao, the largest islet in the South China Sea's Nan sha qun dao. The islet also has a functioning airstrip

u.s. military base should be ejected from Okinawa and replaced with a Chinese one. the u.s did Okinawa wrong by giving it to Japan.

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There is so much in this post I am not sure where to start....
first Cuba. No. Not yet anyway. The Cubans are closer to Russia then China. The Resurgent Putin and Russia has already got access to the Atlantic and established lines and routes to Cuba. The PRC has these huge chunks of rock we call continents blocking them. The PLAN may send a few ships around the world but they are not capable of global operations. Not yet.
second to the PRC mind Taiwan is Chinese. To the Traditional Taiwanese China is Taiwan's the more modern version is that Taiwan is Taiwan but I am digressing. When the US establishes a base it's via a agreement. A lease. Even if you don't like it now the previous government said yes and signed the paperwork. The US pays rent and even hires locals for non security clearance work. If a nation came in and just built a base without permission its a act of war. In the case of Taiwan it would be the opening salvo of a conflict that would likely turn the south China sea red with blood from both sides.
Finally Okinawa... Okinawa has been traded back and forth but it was decidedly Japanese long before the second world war. The US government has a deal with Japan and the Chinese and Japanese have such a long blood feud between them that there is no way Japan would willingly hand over any territory to the PRC.

PanAsian said:

I just don't see how the PRC would have overseas bases. Ports of call and temporary basing under extraordinary circumstances is one thing, permanent bases is another. I think the main reason the PRC pursued carrier development is so that they can avoid needing overseas bases even when they have to send an expeditionary force somewhere.

Overseas PRC bases don't stand a chance if we are looking at scenarios where the US is hostile. In any other scenario where any other power is hostile, diplomacy, retreat, or an expeditionary force working with friendly local forces would probably be preferred by the PRC. Overseas PRC bases would just raise red flags of all kinds all over, regardless of whether it is deserved or not, they therefore are unaffordable politically/diplomatically especially if the PRC wants to undeniably stick to non-interference in other countries' internal affairs.

The one exception which I really can't see as realistic right now is if the US accepts the PRC as an ally in militarily maintaining order wherever there is going to be an overseas PRC base, and the PRC wanting to take on that role. Anything is possible but I just don't see it right now or even five years from now, ten years from now maybe.

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A carrier is not a base. Its a mobile landing strip. It needs support. The PLAN's Achilles heel is logistics.
Logistics keep carriers operating. The Fuel, the Rice, the Water, the Screws and the Bullets. If the PRC intends to operate globally she needs logistics she needs naval bases to fix her ships, she needs those bases to load up the cargo ships that replenish them at sea she needs landing strips to receive urgent cargo for those ships. She needs airbases to protect this naval bases and ground bases to defend them. She needs bases. If not all The PLA can try and control is the South China Sea and the East China Sea, and the PRC can only really operate there. All her other interest are open to attack.
For the PRC as I see it they are moving to the two China seas but that only gets them some of there goals. If they intend to be a super power they must be a super power. That means protecting there interest. China is resource hungry. She is rapidly becoming the worlds top oil importer. She buys from secure Russian pipelines, from open African and Iraqi and Iranian oil tankers to and those are potential weaknesses. For the PRC the most direct route for that African and Middle eastern oil is the Indian ocean and the Persian Gulf. As I see it. The counter piracy operations are the seed China wants for its far eastern fleet. Three bases. Pakistan, Lamu port Kenya and Iran.

with the coming Nicaraguan Canal the PRC will have a vested interest in the Americas. That means a Base. Likely in Nicaragua and if they open one in Nicaragua they then have access to the Gulf of Mexico. A set of smaller bases. Maybe a joint venture with Russia in Cuba and/or Venezuela along with a base in Argentina. Operationally this would likely be a small force nothing grand but a effort.

I still believe that people are looking at this from the wrong perspective.
Nations build bases to protect their interests; principally trade interests. In practice nations build bases to ensure the security of their trade routes and the unhindered passage of their trade.
The current leading powers are nominally maritime powers and have expanded their trade across the oceans. Correspondingly their bases have therefore been maritime orientated bases.

China however is not building its main trade routes on the oceans, but is rebuilding the old trans continental routes of the silk roads. Its interests will therefore converge with those of the other nations through which the routes pass, and it is in the vulnerable sections of them that China will be most likely to wish to establish a security presence in addition to that provided by the local state.

Most of these are therefore going to be land and air on the main Eurasian Continental Landmass with a few maritime interests where trade or resources have to cross relatively short stretches of water to reach it.

I agree to a degree Sampan but China can only get so much from the Silk Road. the PRC has made a massive investment in Africa. The Kind of Financial figures that only come close to those seen in the Colonial period if adjusted for inflation.
And we have already seen them Garrisoning Islands and Atolls and Sand bars in the South China sea and east China Sea. partially staking there claim planting the flag like Columbus claiming the land for spain inhabitants be damned... I mean Hell, I was Playing The Tomb Raider Video Game reboot the other night and I swear i found the PLA Base under construction... It was between the Lost Sun god temple and the Geothermal Cavern filled with Cannibals.

They are doing it at there own speed and I feel will likely try and partner for some but eventually there is only so many places a Aggressively assertive nation can go. and only so much they can trust to Land routes. particularly where there are ocean barriers.

If the PRC needs a naval base anywhere in the world, my prediction and best solution is to build artificial islands with land strip and a deep harbor for the PLAN to replenish their ships and planes. Why? Because artificial islands in international waters at strategic points of interests would avoid all the head aches that comes with renting or having military bases in international soil even from friendly nations.

The problem is a Artificial base is not always a option, I mean right now the PRC is building them in the China Sea's right but on existing structures if there are none your in trouble. Unless you are going to invest in something like a mobile offshore base a massive structure of a Ship far larger in scale then any thing in existence now and try and float that. and even then your still going to have issues of logistics and territories


Land bases are a matter of Negotiation And often can be the same point as the Interests you want to protect

If the canal in Nicaragua does come to fruition, leasing a base in Nicaragua makes sense and serves a purpose of protecting China's trade routes.

The recent closeness between Greece and China, who knows leasing a base there would serve well in China being able to better protect its trade routes and citizens in that part of the world.

joshuatree said:

The recent closeness between Greece and China, who knows leasing a base there would serve well in China being able to better protect its trade routes and citizens in that part of the world.

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I doubt it since it is a lot more complicated with Greece being a member of NATO. PRC would need to create trust with NATO as a whole to gain a military base in that region.
If PRC is looking to create a base in the Mediterranean I believe it would be easier to negotiate with Northern African nations or former Eastern European bloc nations.

I believe China has already made it apparent that it intends to have strong maritime interests over to the Mid East and particularly to Africa. Energy and trade are major concerns for them there. I expect ultimately its port of call agreements and ultimately its basing will reflect this.

It is also clear, IMHO, from his latest visit the Chinese President views south America as a place to develop strong relations, where trade will follow.

The Chinese investment in a new canal across Nicaragua, reinforces this IMHO.

I expect in the medium term, after Africa, that the Chinese see their interests taking shape there. If that bears strong fruit, I would not be surprised to see them seeking to establish ports of call, and ultimately basing arrangements there too, should their trade and energy sources warrant it.

All of this is in addition to the overland trade routes they are also developing.