Plan Basing Strategies (international): News, Views, Pics

[plawolf]

Pakistan will be China's first major foreign naval base, because it has one critical advantage no other potential location has - a secure land link to China.

However, I would expect that to be still quite some time off, as the main rational for the PLAN to move into the Indian Oceon in force would be to secure China's sea based lines of communication in the Indian Ocean.

Let's not be coy here, there is only one power in the world with the might to close off China's SLC in the Indian Oceon, and with no disrespect to the Indians, that power ain't them.

It would be pointless for the PLAN to make all that investment and build a huge naval base in the Indian Ocean if that base and the assets stationed there will get Pearl Harbored in the opening stages of hostilities.

Similarly, I do not see the PLAN permanently stationing significant portions of its strength in the Indian Oceon when it's full might might still not be enough to protect China's Eastern Seaboard from attack.

If the proverbial hits the fan, the PLAN does not want to have significant parts of its strength stuck thousands of miles from where they could help with defence of the mainland, and where they could be easily bottled necked or blocked off trying to get home.

In my view, China will only consider a major military base in the Indian Oceon once it has sufficient strength to protect the Chinese Coast from any attacker.

Once that bare minimum level of strength has bee obtained, then and only then will the PLAN consider permanently basing additional assets so far from home.

In the meantime, the Chinese would most likely make use of existing civilians and military ports in friendly countries for resupply, refuel and light repairs. For the kind of minimal threat missions the PLAN is engaged in, that is more than sufficient.

That is, of course barring any majority, unexpected developments. If Indian turns overtly hostile, Beijing may well decide to set up a base to screw with them.

Similarly, if there is a major incident in Africa or the ME where Chinese nationals and interests are deliberately targeted, Beijing may well reconsider.

 

[Jeff Head]

Pakistan will be China's first major foreign naval base, because it has one critical advantage no other potential location has - a secure land link to China.

However, I would expect that to be still quite some time off, as the main rational for the PLAN to move into the Indian Oceon in force would be to secure China's sea based lines of communication in the Indian Ocean.

It would be pointless for the PLAN to make all that investment and build a huge naval base in the Indian Ocean if that base and the assets stationed there will get Pearl Harbored in the opening stages of hostilities.

Similarly, I do not see the PLAN permanently stationing significant portions of its strength in the Indian Oceon when it's full might might still not be enough to protect China's Eastern Seaboard from attack.

In my view, China will only consider a major military base in the Indian Oceon once it has sufficient strength to protect the Chinese Coast from any attacker.

Once that bare minimum level of strength has bee obtained, then and only then will the PLAN consider permanently basing additional assets so far from home.

In the meantime, the Chinese would most likely make use of existing civilians and military ports in friendly countries for resupply, refuel and light repairs. For the kind of minimal threat missions the PLAN is engaged in, that is more than sufficient.

Similarly, if there is a major incident in Africa or the ME where Chinese nationals and interests are deliberately targeted, Beijing may well reconsider.

Agreed. All very well said, wolf.

 

[Blackstone]

Nice analysis, Wolf and there're lots to agree with. Some items for further discussions are:

Pakistan will be China's first major foreign naval base, because it has one critical advantage no other potential location has - a secure land link to China.

However, I would expect that to be still quite some time off, as the main rational for the PLAN to move into the Indian Oceon in force would be to secure China's sea based lines of communication in the Indian Ocean.

We agree on eventual Chinese military bases in Pakistan and reasons for having them, but we disagree on Pakistan being China's first foreign military base. China is trying to improve relations with India, so it's not in China's interest to needlessly provoke India.

Let's not be coy here, there is only one power in the world with the might to close off China's SLC in the Indian Oceon, and with no disrespect to the Indians, that power ain't them.

For the same reason the USN is increasing reluctant to take on PLA forces inside the "first island chain," the PLA Navy suffers the same deficits against India in its backyard. India enjoys immense home court advantage near its shores, as it could bring its land-bases resources to bear, and the closer you get to the subcontinent, the greater India's home court advantage. Also, the Indian Navy can't be lured out deep into the Indian Ocean for dismemberment, because its strategic waters are all within a few hundred miles of land. If China conducted an all out maritime war to destroy the Indian Navy, the Pyrrhic victory would gut PLAN for decades, leaving China's other geostrategic rivals as real winners.

It would be pointless for the PLAN to make all that investment and build a huge naval base in the Indian Ocean if that base and the assets stationed there will get Pearl Harbored in the opening stages of hostilities.

Correct. That's why China's first foreign base would be far away from India's center of power. Putting a military base next door in Pakistan not only raise the ire of India, but also leaves it too close for your Pearl Harbor scenario.

Similarly, I do not see the PLAN permanently stationing significant portions of its strength in the Indian Oceon when it's full might might still not be enough to protect China's Eastern Seaboard from attack.

If the proverbial hits the fan, the PLAN does not want to have significant parts of its strength stuck thousands of miles from where they could help with defence of the mainland, and where they could be easily bottled necked or blocked off trying to get home.

In my view, China will only consider a major military base in the Indian Oceon once it has sufficient strength to protect the Chinese Coast from any attacker.

You're right if we were to limit our focus near China's coast and the SCS. However, Africa is being mentioned as "China's second continent," and Middle East energy is critical to China's continued economic development. That's why a military base in Tanzania (near Bagamoyo?) and a way station in the Seychelles make sense for the short-term. China could make legitimate arguments for needing the facilities to secure her Africa/Middle East trade, and to make providing global public goods easier. Also, the bases are far enough away from India to not provoke it (too much).

Once that bare minimum level of strength has bee obtained, then and only then will the PLAN consider permanently basing additional assets so far from home.

In the meantime, the Chinese would most likely make use of existing civilians and military ports in friendly countries for resupply, refuel and light repairs. For the kind of minimal threat missions the PLAN is engaged in, that is more than sufficient.

That is, of course barring any majority, unexpected developments. If Indian turns overtly hostile, Beijing may well decide to set up a base to screw with them.

Similarly, if there is a major incident in Africa or the ME where Chinese nationals and interests are deliberately targeted, Beijing may well reconsider.

Agreed.

 

[Equation]

I say China can always build artificial islands in the Indian Ocean at strategic points of interests to protect their lines of communications and commercial sea lanes.

Military garrison

Or island resort

 

[no_name]

Building luxury island resort could have the added implications of grabbing shares of tourists who would otherwise visit south china sea via the philippines, and also indirect propaganda of chinese claims to tourists and medias.

Make the best, most well-known tourism spots, make it like you own it is probably what they may do.

If in the future they offer resupply/port stop for US carriers at south china sea instead of HK, would the US take up on it (it would imply tactic approval acknowledgement)? They could probably offer good rates too.

 

[Equation]

Building luxury island resort could have the added implications of grabbing shares of tourists who would otherwise visit south china sea via the philippines, and also indirect propaganda of chinese claims to tourists and medias.

Make the best, most well-known tourism spots, make it like you own it is probably what they may do.

If in the future they offer resupply/port stop for US carriers at south china sea instead of HK, would the US take up on it (it would imply tactic approval acknowledgement)? They could probably offer good rates too.

Perhaps, but that's in the Pacific Ocean area, this is more in the Indian Ocean territory, therefore different kind of tourist with different kind of destination. Hey it's Chinese land (if they build it) any ships are welcome for port of call once approve of course.

 

[SampanViking]

Wolfie hits the nail square on the head.

There is a question though about what exactly Gwadar is likely to become. Talking on a strict PLAN basis it is primarily seen as a Port Terminal that receives Saudi and African Crude with the intent of being piped from their through Pakistan and into China.

This of course is only part of the story as the Gwadar pipeline is only going to be a part or even section of a Pipe Network that runs from Iran and Central Asia to supply not only China, but also Pakistan and India. This means that Gwadar could become a regional hub for not only Sea Delivered Oil, but also for the proposed regional land pipeline network.

These pipelines have been on the cards for many years, but like the Power of Siberia deal, have been delayed by local foot dragging and indecision. There is an event in August that could shake all of this up vigorously. Iran, Pakistan and India are all observer members of the SCO and all have expressed the desire to become full members. In August, the SCO heads of State meeting will be releasing the report commissioned some years ago on the accession process and requirements for Observers to become full members.

Obviously such a development has the potential to transform the prospects of final agreement and construction.

The point of all this for this thread, is that simply having a naval presence is not going to be sufficient and that both land and air forces will be needed to give the hub, the Sealanes and the Pipelines the level of credible protection that they would need.

 

[no_name]

Perhaps, but that's in the Pacific Ocean area, this is more in the Indian Ocean territory, therefore different kind of tourist with different kind of destination. Hey it's Chinese land (if they build it) any ships are welcome for port of call once approve of course.

My bad I misread.

 

[Jeff Head]

The US has a large network of alliances, strong relations, port agreements, and bases. This is the type of thing, over the long term, the PRC will need to develop.

Here's how the US has formed its arrangements (Note does not include troops in Afghanistan...they are going to be coming home soon):

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You could take such a map, and look out into the future, and see where the PRC needs to go in order to secure its sea lanes and interests.

 

[HAPA]

Cuba is a good place to put a base. Cuba is under threat by the u.s and need some back up. taiwan is another place that needs a base. The u.s. regime doesn't hesitate to put a base in somewhere to keep the local govt in check, and China needs to do the same. More details on what needs to be done.

1. Radar sites on taiwans mountaintops to monitor u.S. Navy ships in the Pacific.

2. Deep-water naval bases at Su Ao and Hualien would provide a safe haven for submarines in the deepest maritime trench in the Pacific.

3. Pratas Reef would provide the navy with a base equidistant from hong Kong and taiwan

4. Tai ping dao, the largest islet in the South China Sea's Nan sha qun dao. The islet also has a functioning airstrip

u.s. military base should be ejected from Okinawa and replaced with a Chinese one. the u.s did Okinawa wrong by giving it to Japan.