Tinian and Rota are alternative islands, which are close to Guam.
So it should be feasible to isolate Guam and let it "wither on the vine".
There is no alternative to Guam. The level of infrastructure and support built up in Guam is unparallel.
If we're talking about WW3 then it's not enough to simply "neutralize" Guam.
The PLA must occupy Guam.
Americans in the military like to jokingly say "Guam is the USA's most important aircraft carrier."
If the PLA can occupy Guam, put DF-26 missiles and H-6 bombers there, then everything from Japan to Indonesia now becomes within firing range. China will basically own the 2nd island chain. China must take Guam for the simple reason it is too perfectly positioned.
Let's assume when WW3 happens the H-20 bomber and the Type 004 carrier will exist in too few numbers to actually matter.
China's ability to project power beyond 4,000km from land based infrastructure will be severely limited. Therefore those "worthless islands" in the Pacific which hold very little economic value during peacetime will become super critical during wartime. China must occupy those islands, build up the infrastructure there, and use them as jumping points to reach further out into the Pacific. The PLA will go on an Island hopping campaign similar to how a frog crosses a pond by jumping off floating lily pads.
what the heck? Why do you need to occupy Guam to control Japan to Indonesia? Have you seen how close China itself is to Japan and Indonesia vs Guam?
People, please just do some basic lookup on the map to understand distances.
Well, I just see the US being able to sustain salvoes of 200 missiles/bombs against an isolated target like Iwo Jima.
At least until there are enough carriers and/or J-36
Okay, so have you done any calculations on how many aircraft are per carrier air wing. Per mission, how many are used for the purpose of attack and how many for escorts? In this case, how many missiles can they carry while realistically fly say 500nm out to launch and then come back? What % of missiles can they launch away?
How, the next question is how many are they launching against shipping targets vs land targets.
Once you land a SHORADS on the island, estimates on what % of subsonic missiles you can shoot down. Now, also factor in fighter jet that can also launch missiles to intercept incoming ground attack missiles.
Let's say you score a few hit on the runway, how quickly can the runway be repaired?
Next, how many days of replenishment do you have? How long can carrier group sustain this type of attack? Is it needed for elsewhere?
I'm not saying that USN cannot overwhelm a position in Iwo Jima, but rather does it make sense for USN to do so when it needs to actually concentrate its fleet for a major showdown at least somewhat close to Taiwan.
If China can keep US from attacking its industrial center, then it's not going to work out for America. It will run out of weapons stockpile after not a long period of time. And without the East Asian supply chain, it's hard to see US MIC being able to keep production going whereas China's factories will be building plenty of missiles and such.
Estimated total: ~2,387 active fighter jets across Air Force, Marine Corps, and Navy.
