So far, we have discussed the merits of first strike and surprise attack toward the outcome of Westpac conflict. Not surprisingly that china would think about doing this given @Patchwork_Chimera has presented to us.
To just start by looking at the initial strike, what assets will be responsible for attacking what targets.
If we look at Taiwan itself, there are the naval, air defense and air base runway targets. In an initial hours, I would expect severe ew pressure as well as j16s, j10s and j20s to come attack targets. I would expect all the shore based anti ship launchers and 022s to aim at roc naval ships. There isn't great capabilities on roc warships for handling saturation attacks, so I would expect most rocn ships to be sunk by over 100 anti ship missiles from 022s, j16s and shore based anti ship weapons. I would expect, plaaf ew assets to confused taiwanese air defense followed by massive amount of missile attacks from phl16, ground launched cruise missiles, some number of df16s, stand off missiles from fighter jet. I actually don't think the stationary taiwanese air defense would handle the pressure too well, but the mobile ones to mostly survive. I would also expect them to knock out most command centers, communication towers, air base runways and hangars. There are a lot of targets in Taiwan. I don't think it's reasonable to take everything out initially, but just enough to deny fighter sorites and sink most of naval ships. At least 500 bombs and missiles in the opening few hours and probably 1000 by the end of first day to completely take out air defense and fighter sortie capabilities. After initial launches, I think they can just go with j10s and jh7a launching pgms and ucavs circling over top. If h20 exists, they would be able to do a lot of damage with a couple of sorties. The goal here is to do enough damage without taking up longer ranged assets that would better be used against other targets. I would guess by volume, Taiwan would receive the most incoming missiles.
As I said previously, they will need to follow up by landing in penghu over the next couple of days and set up artillery, counter artillery and repair airport there for operation. This will probably take some time. After which, it would be a terrible situation to be in roc army. I would also expect them to take Taiping island and orchid island. Both have strategic significance as we previously discussed.
To just start by looking at the initial strike, what assets will be responsible for attacking what targets.
If we look at Taiwan itself, there are the naval, air defense and air base runway targets. In an initial hours, I would expect severe ew pressure as well as j16s, j10s and j20s to come attack targets. I would expect all the shore based anti ship launchers and 022s to aim at roc naval ships. There isn't great capabilities on roc warships for handling saturation attacks, so I would expect most rocn ships to be sunk by over 100 anti ship missiles from 022s, j16s and shore based anti ship weapons. I would expect, plaaf ew assets to confused taiwanese air defense followed by massive amount of missile attacks from phl16, ground launched cruise missiles, some number of df16s, stand off missiles from fighter jet. I actually don't think the stationary taiwanese air defense would handle the pressure too well, but the mobile ones to mostly survive. I would also expect them to knock out most command centers, communication towers, air base runways and hangars. There are a lot of targets in Taiwan. I don't think it's reasonable to take everything out initially, but just enough to deny fighter sorites and sink most of naval ships. At least 500 bombs and missiles in the opening few hours and probably 1000 by the end of first day to completely take out air defense and fighter sortie capabilities. After initial launches, I think they can just go with j10s and jh7a launching pgms and ucavs circling over top. If h20 exists, they would be able to do a lot of damage with a couple of sorties. The goal here is to do enough damage without taking up longer ranged assets that would better be used against other targets. I would guess by volume, Taiwan would receive the most incoming missiles.
As I said previously, they will need to follow up by landing in penghu over the next couple of days and set up artillery, counter artillery and repair airport there for operation. This will probably take some time. After which, it would be a terrible situation to be in roc army. I would also expect them to take Taiping island and orchid island. Both have strategic significance as we previously discussed.
