PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC

tphuang

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So far, we have discussed the merits of first strike and surprise attack toward the outcome of Westpac conflict. Not surprisingly that china would think about doing this given @Patchwork_Chimera has presented to us.

To just start by looking at the initial strike, what assets will be responsible for attacking what targets.

If we look at Taiwan itself, there are the naval, air defense and air base runway targets. In an initial hours, I would expect severe ew pressure as well as j16s, j10s and j20s to come attack targets. I would expect all the shore based anti ship launchers and 022s to aim at roc naval ships. There isn't great capabilities on roc warships for handling saturation attacks, so I would expect most rocn ships to be sunk by over 100 anti ship missiles from 022s, j16s and shore based anti ship weapons. I would expect, plaaf ew assets to confused taiwanese air defense followed by massive amount of missile attacks from phl16, ground launched cruise missiles, some number of df16s, stand off missiles from fighter jet. I actually don't think the stationary taiwanese air defense would handle the pressure too well, but the mobile ones to mostly survive. I would also expect them to knock out most command centers, communication towers, air base runways and hangars. There are a lot of targets in Taiwan. I don't think it's reasonable to take everything out initially, but just enough to deny fighter sorites and sink most of naval ships. At least 500 bombs and missiles in the opening few hours and probably 1000 by the end of first day to completely take out air defense and fighter sortie capabilities. After initial launches, I think they can just go with j10s and jh7a launching pgms and ucavs circling over top. If h20 exists, they would be able to do a lot of damage with a couple of sorties. The goal here is to do enough damage without taking up longer ranged assets that would better be used against other targets. I would guess by volume, Taiwan would receive the most incoming missiles.

As I said previously, they will need to follow up by landing in penghu over the next couple of days and set up artillery, counter artillery and repair airport there for operation. This will probably take some time. After which, it would be a terrible situation to be in roc army. I would also expect them to take Taiping island and orchid island. Both have strategic significance as we previously discussed.
 

vincent

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So far, we have discussed the merits of first strike and surprise attack toward the outcome of Westpac conflict. Not surprisingly that china would think about doing this given @Patchwork_Chimera has presented to us.

To just start by looking at the initial strike, what assets will be responsible for attacking what targets.

If we look at Taiwan itself, there are the naval, air defense and air base runway targets. In an initial hours, I would expect severe ew pressure as well as j16s, j10s and j20s to come attack targets. I would expect all the shore based anti ship launchers and 022s to aim at roc naval ships. There isn't great capabilities on roc warships for handling saturation attacks, so I would expect most rocn ships to be sunk by over 100 anti ship missiles from 022s, j16s and shore based anti ship weapons. I would expect, plaaf ew assets to confused taiwanese air defense followed by massive amount of missile attacks from phl16, ground launched cruise missiles, some number of df16s, stand off missiles from fighter jet. I actually don't think the stationary taiwanese air defense would handle the pressure too well, but the mobile ones to mostly survive. I would also expect them to knock out most command centers, communication towers, air base runways and hangars. There are a lot of targets in Taiwan. I don't think it's reasonable to take everything out initially, but just enough to deny fighter sorites and sink most of naval ships. At least 500 bombs and missiles in the opening few hours and probably 1000 by the end of first day to completely take out air defense and fighter sortie capabilities. After initial launches, I think they can just go with j10s and jh7a launching pgms and ucavs circling over top. If h20 exists, they would be able to do a lot of damage with a couple of sorties. The goal here is to do enough damage without taking up longer ranged assets that would better be used against other targets. I would guess by volume, Taiwan would receive the most incoming missiles.

As I said previously, they will need to follow up by landing in penghu over the next couple of days and set up artillery, counter artillery and repair airport there for operation. This will probably take some time. After which, it would be a terrible situation to be in roc army. I would also expect them to take Taiping island and orchid island. Both have strategic significance as we previously discussed.

You forgot fuel depots, powerstations, civilian gas stations, submarine network cable stations, and SatCom
 

tphuang

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You forgot fuel depots, powerstations, civilian gas stations, submarine network cable stations, and SatCom
I think for the initial round of bombing, you just need to make sure to create an environment here your drones can operate with impunity. I don't think you need to hit civilian gas stations. Note out fuel depot, strategic gas reserves and a few major power stations and that will take care of it. Also cut out underground internet cables and such. Jam up satellite communication. But these things you can hit with PGMs on the following days. And you'd also expect circling drones to find targets and either hit those targets by themselves or relay data to artillery unit stationed on Penghu. Ideally, you don't want to destroy all of Taiwan's infrastructure. You just want to demoralize/wear out the military and cause average citizen to give up fighting.
 

vincent

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I think for the initial round of bombing, you just need to make sure to create an environment here your drones can operate with impunity. I don't think you need to hit civilian gas stations. Note out fuel depot, strategic gas reserves and a few major power stations and that will take care of it. Also cut out underground internet cables and such. Jam up satellite communication. But these things you can hit with PGMs on the following days. And you'd also expect circling drones to find targets and either hit those targets by themselves or relay data to artillery unit stationed on Penghu. Ideally, you don't want to destroy all of Taiwan's infrastructure. You just want to demoralize/wear out the military and cause average citizen to give up fighting.
There is a rumour PLA is developing super large calibre howitzer that can hit the Taiwan island with rocket-assisted projectiles. There may not be a need to take over Penghu.

The reason to hit all fuel depots, civilian gas stations included, is to eliminate mobility by both military and civilian vehicles. After a week, anything that can move must be a military vehicle
 

ACuriousPLAFan

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There is a rumour PLA is developing super large calibre howitzer that can hit the Taiwan island with rocket-assisted projectiles. There may not be a need to take over Penghu.

The reason to hit all fuel depots, civilian gas stations included, is to eliminate mobility by both military and civilian vehicles. After a week, anything that can move must be a military vehicle
I remember having read a news article dated some years ago, which alleged that a certain military R&D institute in China has successfully demonstrated a working prototype of an ultra-long range artillery with firing range in the hundreds of kilometers.

But since then it became completely silent.

Does anyone has the link to said news article?

On the flipside, is the super large calibre howitzer related to this?

(Sidenote - When trying to find that news article, I stumbled upon this one dated May last year, which stated the the US Army is awarding contracts for developing artillery shells with ramjets(!) that could travel over 100 kilometers:
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)
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
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Moderator - World Affairs
I remember having read a news article dated some years ago, which alleged that a certain military R&D institute in China has successfully demonstrated a working prototype of an ultra-long range artillery with firing range in the hundreds of kilometers.

But since then it became completely silent.

Does anyone has the link to said news article?

On the flipside, is the super large calibre howitzer related to this?

(Sidenote - When trying to find that news article, I stumbled upon this one dated May last year, which stated the the US Army is awarding contracts for developing artillery shells with ramjets(!) that could travel over 100 kilometers:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
)

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

Blitzo

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That's quite long so apologies if I missed something

Less than a day, and it should be less than 12 hours



Includes everything important in the 1st and 2nd Island Chain. This includes everything you have mentioned. Air defences, Airbases, radars, C4I, CSGs, naval formations, naval bases and anything else that could potentially militarily affect the PLA operations during the first days. After that is done (while keeping enemy airbases offline) you can start prosecuting lower value targets


Guam, Japan, Taiwan. Not S.Korea though (more of my opinion that the PLA wouldn't strike it first as I give S.K low chance to get involved in war, even though it hosts US forces in its territory).

Although obvsiously important as it is the main victory goal, I would argue that Taiwanese assets should IMO be the least of the priorities, so Guam (when I say Guam I also include CGS, and other naval formations) and Japan should 100% be crippled on the first wave of attacks.

Ideally after the first rounds of attacks, US and Japanese forces should be unable to seriously affect PLA operations until the next wave of US reinforcements is gathered and then sent to the area (dunno how long thats it, >2-3 weeks?)


Different munitions are going to be needed for striking Taiwan and for striking Guam. For Taiwan I am not fully certain as there have been some doubts about the number of PGMs (although I am aware that they are expanding their stock). But from my understanding the required munitions for Guam and Japan, the numbers are adequate. As for the necessary platforms, I don't know about that, but given that the munitions are there, I assume the platform numbers would't be that far behind (reload, distribution of munition stocks etc) . If you have info on that and you wish to share it, I would welcome it



China has its own massive stock for different materials. I am not sure for the exact composition of them, but I am aware that it is currently building massive storage facilities for materials that it doesn't have available. And in any case, in a war, the military industry gets first priority on them, not the civilian industry/economy, so I wouldn't be worried that the military would face competition from the civilians for materials.
And also don't forget Russia and BRI. All these combined should be enough to ensure production of weapons for many years.

And of course, as usual, this aspect should already be included in CMC war plans. So if the CMC thinks they don't have adequate supplies, they will simply not launch a war until they have them in sufficient quantities.

I think it is almost a certainty that production of some weapons will be negatively affected but I expect these issues to be ironed out in the following weeks (probably a few months) of a war. The CMC should already have the necessary war plans for it, so I am quite certain that everything regarding weapons production during wartime has been planned already. You don't produce a weapon without taking into account supply chain security





Tactical, operational yes. Strategic surprise will suffer, but with a big enough time delay and good messaging/actions this can also be achieved if handled carefully( lets put it at 30-50% success)

Indeed. Waiting time cannot be too long. But even with geopolitics involved, I would say that the PLA would still be able to be in higher readiness for more time than US forces (Japanese forces is an unknown for me, I haven't read any report on how long they can stay in that posture, I would guess, probably not very long).

So for Strategic surprise if we go by percentages, the PLA might not have it. But for Tactical and operation, it should have it.



Did you saw what I just wrote in that post you quoted? I said for breaking blockades (striking naval targets) in far distances. This certainly means, no BVRAAM, no ATGM (lol), yes for AShBM, not very realistic for AShM.

I would place AShBM as the number 1 priority for production


In total war production, 2 years should be enough for China to reach that target. Could also be a bit sooner than that if the CPC/CMC has already made some preparations

I expect the biggest spender to be anti-ship, and then probably air-defence missiles. (PGM should be on their own category). BVRAAMs should also be significant but not take a big % of that. PLA's ideal (plausible imo) scenario would be knocking out the places airplanes can fly from, not the airplanes themselves.

I've read through everything you've written.

They are reasonable arguments to make-- if you had written them in a manner to back up a claim that was written with far more nuance and caution.

See the following part.


My claims were written like that because:
1) Obviously I believe that to be the case.
2) I don't have that much time to spend to expand my points appropriately. This back and forth already took quite a bit of my limited time, I probably won't be repeating that again. I am not a professional after all, I consider this more of a casual hobby than anything else.

So, the reason I responded in the way I did, is because your content in that post were very, very confident and spoke of your claims as if they were obvious, unassailable, and common sense and as if they were all going to be a given if conflict ensued.


In my last reply, I said "extraordinary confident claims, accordingly requires a commensurate degree of extraordinary evidence, justification, and detail".

Your elaborations that you have provided above, I believe, fall far short of what would be expected to justify the confidence of the scope and breadth of claims you made in post #662.
If you do not have the time to expand on your points appropriately (and frankly, most of your points are impossible to be expanded on appropriately because they some would require classified information to do so), that is absolutely fine.
No one would reasonably expect you to justify them all to a severe level of detail.


If you had written your claims in #662 with more much caution and nuance, I would not have an issue with it.

For the record, this is the way I approach most claims or posts, and I have done so in the past to others over the years.
It is not directed to you in particular, it is just that on this occasion I happened to have seen this post you had made.



One liners are imo not acceptable in such a big discussion. You, as a moderator, justified it now and your explaination makes some sense so that's ok to me. I didn't even report that post. I simply noticed a lapse of rules and brought that to your attention. You as a moderator, are entitled to do whatever you want.

Well, in this case I was writing to you in the position of a normal user.

Throughout the forum there are many one liners written by members every day, not all of them are bannable offenses, and are interpreted in the context of the thread, and whether a response is appropriate to the level of post or content that preceded it or which responded it to.
 

tphuang

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There is a rumour PLA is developing super large calibre howitzer that can hit the Taiwan island with rocket-assisted projectiles. There may not be a need to take over Penghu.

The reason to hit all fuel depots, civilian gas stations included, is to eliminate mobility by both military and civilian vehicles. After a week, anything that can move must be a military vehicle
Sure, I'm just saying if they do take Penghu, they can use cheaper, short ranged ammunitions to hit various targets. The narrowest part of the strait is still over 150 km IIRC, so I think you'd still need rockets.

If you take out the strategic oil reserve, military fuel depot and establish a blockade, that would be sufficient imo. No need to target all the gas stations. That would just incur greater civilian casualities and the cost of repairs after the war is over. Of course, if they actually have to do a landing, it would incur much greater civilian casualty and damage. But if a conflict does happen, you'd hope that Taiwanese gov't gives in and have a negotiated settlement after a couple of weeks. Of course, PLA still needs to prepare themselves for an invasion, but ideally you don't get there.
 
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