PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
bad thing though is most could be easily intercepted by sending something as crap as a J-7/6/5 to just shoot a couple 20 mm at it to send th cruise missiles down. and theres more than enough J-7/6/5's to cover the entire border. But at that point the operation costs might just be too much. like iran probably has like 2k of those shaheed drones but it doesn't matter because its so easy to shoot down, cruise missiles too

All the J-7/6/5 should have been retired by now.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
But US can hit China from any where from Japan, Philippine and other countries around China, and China at the same time must bomb those countries into stone ages. So China will bombs those US allies more than they think about to strike US mainland. So the battlefield won't be in US mainland, but around China. It will devastate Japan, Philippine, Taiwan, and maybe Vietnam (if they foolishly join the war) but compared to China, US is basically intact. If that happen, US main objective is complete. Because anything that can disturb China economy and industry can be considered victory to them. Who care about Japan, Korea, and Philippine. They just sacrificial lambs to them.

You're contradicting yourself here.

If China can bomb Japan/Philippines/etc into the stone ages, it means all the military bases have been destroyed and they are presumably under air-sea blockade.

Therefore, how can the US use the territory of Japan/Philippines/etc to hit China??
 
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lcloo

Major
The US used nowhere near 50,000 missiles in Iraq and Afghnistan.

They mainly used bombs (both dumb and guided) dropped at short range.
True, and the funny part is that some of those bombs were from old stockpile made during or after Vietnam war. In 1970 to 1990 US was still very strong in manufacturing, thus the large inventory of bombs that they had during the Gulf wars.

After the Gulf wars, much of the inventory of both new and old bombs were depleted.

It is different story in 2025 in regard to poor states of supply chain and manufacturing of weapons en masse in US. China's ban of rare earth for making magnets specially made for precision guided weapons should be permanent.
 

tygyg1111

Captain
Registered Member
With long range missile of course. With how many missiles? Even hundred of missiles like what Russian and Iran did to Ukraine and Israel could only do little damages. Maybe some buildings would be destroyed. But that's it. Unless both sides use nuclear.

But US can hit China from any where from Japan, Philippine and other countries around China, and China at the same time must bomb those countries into stone ages. So China will bombs those US allies more than they think about to strike US mainland. So the battlefield won't be in US mainland, but around China. It will devastate Japan, Philippine, Taiwan, and maybe Vietnam (if they foolishly join the war) but compared to China, US is basically intact. If that happen, US main objective is complete. Because anything that can disturb China economy and industry can be considered victory to them. Who care about Japan, Korea, and Philippine. They just sacrificial lambs to them.

So this come to my idea. US main weakness is their logistical route. I use the ancient Wei Qi logic for this. Remember, there are 3 steps of strategy in military warfare. From tactic, operation, to strategic level. My idea cover to strategic level only. If we portrayed China and US pivot in SCS and westpac situation, the area that east to Japan and Philippine is basically US "Territory". It is difficult for China do disturb US logistic ships that operate in Pacific Ocean. Specially when they are guarded by US Navy element. Because compared to US, China ability to reach Pacific Ocean is more or less limited. Even if they can, it is basically behind the enemy land. Their are at their own. There is too little support that China mainland can offer to support them.

To interrupt US plan to pivot China, They have to have an easy access to the Pacific ocean. Maybe from Eastern Russia mainland, or another countries that has access to the ocean without any US ally. Like Indonesia maybe, or Papua Nu Guinea. If China can build a Submarine base there, China already can limit the US "Liberty" (Wei Qi chess term) in Pacific. Thus decrease the effectiveness of their Asia pivot. As China can disturb their logistic route without any problem.

So this is the reason why US more afraid if China can get an ally in Pacific Ocean than anything else. Sometime ago I read that a small island country in the Pacific give China the access to their port. And you know, this already freak US and Australia out. Because it is basically very dangerous to their position in Pacific Ocean. So what if China can put their grip into that country, by building a military base there and protect the regime from any US and Australia attempt of "Arab Spring"? It will change the course of US' Asian pivot strategy. That's what I mean from my Wei Qi chess strategy in WestPac.
If the US loses Korea, Japan and SEA then it loses economic influence over those regions, effectively decoupling itself from the majority of the world economy. It would be a disaster for the US, as it gives China a free hand to control the world economy and steer its future. Such a US loss would be a clear show of who's who in the world, and prompt a wave of countries to mass ditch the US and move into China's orbit.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Doesn't mean you can't use them, for something. Adhoc cruise missiles could work

I recall that there is an airbase where J-6s have been converted into preprogramed 1-way attack drones/decoys for Taiwan.

But that is not the same as using J-6s to intercept incoming missiles/drones
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
If the US loses Korea, Japan and SEA then it loses economic influence over those regions, effectively decoupling itself from the majority of the world economy. It would be a disaster for the US, as it gives China a free hand to control the world economy and steer its future. Such a US loss would be a clear show of who's who in the world, and prompt a wave of countries to mass ditch the US and move into China's orbit.

I think it's more accurate to say that the US losing [Korea, Japan and ASEAN] would accelerate the shift from the US to China, but that shift is happening anyway.

---

China's GDP is at $40 Trillion.
If you assume a modest growth rate of 4%, then China will add $20 Trillion in the next 10 years.
That $20 Trillion is equivalent to a combined [Korea, Japan and ASEAN].
 

tonyget

Senior Member
Registered Member
If Chinese territory was hit by US weapon on their industries, China will definitely hit back at US mainland and their industries.

The only means China has to hit US mainland is ICBM as of now. Launching ICBM towards the US mainland can easily being judged as nuclear attack. So China wouldn't do that unless a nuclear war is what China wants
 

tonyget

Senior Member
Registered Member
It would take about 55-60,000 missiles to even strike every building in Shanghai. That's about 55-60 years of US missile production. Just to take out a single factory, about 20-30 missiles are required. And China has hundreds of thousands of factories. A single missile hitting a factory is not even enough to delay production for 8 hours.

There is no point to destroy every single building in the city,no military in the world would do that. Only those sites has strategic importance wil be targeted,such as semiconductor fabs,power plant,network center,water facility,hospitals etc

And as long as these base infrastructure being disabled,the whole city will be paralyzed and most if not all economic activities will be stopped

You have no idea how fragile modern city has become. Those scenes you see on movie,like the whole city is taken by zombie but somehow the internet still works for weeks,is totally fake.
 
There is no point to destroy every single building in the city,no military in the world would do that. Only those sites has strategic importance wil be targeted,such as semiconductor fabs,power plant,network center,water facility,hospitals etc

And as long as these base infrastructure being disabled,the whole city will be paralyzed and most if not all economic activities will be stopped
Would still need thousands of missiles. And that is only for a single city, China has 100+ cities with a population of over one million. With such a smaller industrial base, attempting to conduct strategic bombing via ballistic missiles is suicidal for the US. 1) China would produce much more missiles 2) a much greater of Chinese industrial targets would need to be hit than American industrial targets to achieve the same level of impact on industrial production.
 
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