PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC
- Thread starter SEAD
- Start date
You are assuming Japan has a choice.
Well, I think you're underselling them just a bit. I'm sure they'll manage to finish in 90 years.
If the US thinks it can't win a fight in the Western Pacific, I doubt that it would have the guts to pull off a blockade. In the Straits of Malacca, there's no way of telling what ports the ships are going to visit so any blockade will have to stop all shipping. And doing that is basically declaring war against all of ASEAN and East Asia. Probably for the Gulf States and most of Europe as well. So while this is China's greatest strategic vulnerability, trying to exploit it carries a lot of risk.
Well, I meant 2035, but it's funny so I'll leave the original post like that!
taking Guam will be really hard. I'm just putting Iwo Jima out there because there are so few defenders that you can probably do it in early days once you take out 7th fleet + JMSDF + Okinawa. Iwo Jima gives them a forward position that allows for full blockade of Japan so that they are out of the picture for rest of the conflict.
No, Japan is not blockading China. China is blockading Japan.
People, get it out of your head. China needs to be the terrorist in a Westpac conflict so that all its neighbors know who to side with. You have to be the biggest and baddest power in your neck of the wood. Nobody wants to go with the losing side.
All this ambitious goals with just 1.5% GDP military spending? I doubt it's happening.
Japan alone has 30 destroyers while China has only 50. Let's not forget that A2/AD applies against China too. So shore based anti- ship missiles on 1st island chain will likely sink any PLA ship trying to get out.
In order to break this chokehold China needs a massive expansion of its air and missile force. Completely saturate 1st island chain. Current fighter fleet of 2200 fighters is not enough to attain dominance even if all of the fleet is converted to 4th Gen+.
In terms of navy China needs atleast 150 destroyers along with 10 carriers to make a dent against US and allies.
China lacks numbers
Massive expansion on 6th gen planes are a must. U.S beat China in number of 5th planes produced because U.S has an early production start.
If China can produce 1.5-2x more 6th gen planes than U.S, 1st island chain is in the bag for China. 6th gen warship will beat 4th and 5th gen planes.
I am always a fan of warplanes over warship.
A warship requires hundreds of crewmember to operate while a plane required 1 or 2 crews.. The survivability of plane is greater than warship.
If China can produce 1.5-2x more 6th gen planes than U.S, 1st island chain is in the bag for China. 6th gen warship will beat 4th and 5th gen planes.
I am always a fan of warplanes over warship.
A warship requires hundreds of crewmember to operate while a plane required 1 or 2 crews.. The survivability of plane is greater than warship.
PLA doesn’t have to occupy Guam, just need to smash it to pieces so it can’t be used to support US military operations during the war.
Japan has like 8 modern destroyers, while the rest of their destroyer force are either glorified frigates or decade old rust buckets. PLAN will have 60 proper modern destroyers in a few years(28 052D currently in active service with 10 more under various stages of construction, 9 055 in service with 6 more under construction and 1 planned and 6 052Cs) adding legacy destroyers PLAN(Although some ships like the 2 052 class and 2 051C class have pennant numbers that will be used by the new batch of 055s so it is unknown what will happen to them when new 055s are comissioned) will have 71 destroyers total likely in the next 3 years. Compared to USN's 75 active destroyers, PLAN isn't at any major numerical or technological disadvantage IMO, in fact PLAN has a technological advantage over the USN due to ships being much newer. 150 destroyers is far too much to be economical during peace time and 10 carriers is unlikely to be achieved in the next decade. I'd say we'll be lucky to see 8 carriers by the end of next decade, as for destroyers I could realistically see PLAN expanding to 80-90 destroyers in the near future. As for PLAAF, they could have 1000 J-20s by 2030, likely a further ~400 J-35As and probably a good number of CCAs. IDK what more you could ask for, 1400 stealth fighters by 2030 could potentially be more 5th gens the entire US military has including USMC and USN at that time and thats only PLAAF, PLAN is expected to operate a good number of J-35s and potentially PLANMC's new stealthy jump jet by 2030. H-20 would potentially be online by then as well if cute orca's word of it taking flight before Zhuhai 26' is accurate.