PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

I think it's safe to say that China's leaders are not in a hurry to resort to a forced reunification. The problem is, will the United States be as patient? The clock is ticking for the US to use its military, which is their last remaining realistic option to derail China's ascendency.

After 10-20 years, this window of opportunity will be completely shut for the US. When would the American elites think is a good moment to make that move?

Shaolian said:

I think it's safe to say that China's leaders are not in a hurry to resort to a forced reunification. The problem is, will the United States be as patient? The clock is ticking for the US to use its military, which is their last remaining realistic option to derail China's ascendency.

After 10-20 years, this window of opportunity will be completely shut for the US. When would the American elites think is a good moment to make that move?

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Americans don't like fighting unless they have a 200 to 1 advantage. See: every war since World War II (and even then it was attacked first). In other words, I don't think they will make a move. Which means Taiwan is China's for the taking as long as it remains patient and continues growing.

dengyeye said:

Americans don't like fighting unless they have a 200 to 1 advantage. See: every war since World War II (and even then it was attacked first). In other words, I don't think they will make a move. Which means Taiwan is China's for the taking as long as it remains patient and continues growing.

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Unless they delude themselves into thinking they have a 200 to 1 advantage. It more then likely that it won’t happen but it’s not like they acting rationally either. They didn’t consult the Federal Reserve before weaponizing SWIFT and the dollar. Neither did NATO leadership consult with any members before announcing Finland and Sweden application and then got blindsided by Turkey.

Bellum_Romanum said:

To inform us what the crazies on the other side are thinking, and drinking which is a massive amount of delusion Boba drinks?

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We know there are always crazies in any country...

dengyeye said:

Americans don't like fighting unless they have a 200 to 1 advantage. See: every war since World War II (and even then it was attacked first). In other words, I don't think they will make a move. Which means Taiwan is China's for the taking as long as it remains patient and continues growing.

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China's red line is the One China policy. The US isn't going to cross it directly. Instead, imo what they're planning to do is skirt around the line. Not directly supporting Taiwan independence. But giving indirect support to it. For example, pushing for Taiwan to get an official seat at international organizations (UN, WHO, WTO, sports body, etc.), telling its vassals (like Lithuania) to recognize Taiwan officially and establish a consulate/embassy there, making vague statements like US will support Taiwan in war, etc.
Doing these little tricks to provoke China and have the Chinese military fire the first shot. Then mission accomplished.
I guess similar to the situation with Ukraine and Russia now. Bait Russia into making the first move..

Time is on China's side. Every year that goes by, China grows stronger.
Whereas for the US, they're running out of time. Economy is not doing so well and its tech/science advantages are eroding which will negatively impact its military as well. Hence, the US govt is desperately trying to bait China into war to sabotage the latter's economy.

You guys are worrying too much about this. When the global political climate is right and China is ready for reunification, China will send a signal to agent Tsai and she will formally start the independence action. China will but have to reunite forcefully.

Coalescence said:

There's bound to be supporters in Taiwan which can be convinced to join the cause, people who have common interest or ideology with CPC, or who were wronged by the current administration in Taiwan like the opposition parties you mentioned. It would be difficult to catch these agents even with monitoring because they'll only act when the operation begins.

Unless the DPP actively seek out and imprisons everyone with even the slightest ties to the mainland before the armed reunification operation starts, they won't be able to effectively stop them from carrying their objectives. But after saying this, China should also look out for agents before the operation or create countermeasures against sabotage on their military infrastructures and assets.

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i think even people who genuinely supports an independent Taiwan, would consider some form of self-preservation if the writing is on the wall. people are realistic for the most part. however, given the ineptitude of Taiwanese bureaucrats, i suspect most will simply do nothing. after all, even defecting to the enemy requires some courage and cleverness.

although i would not be surprised if there are officers or politicians who are in fact covert operatives working for China. those existed during the civil war, there is no reason to assume that it won't be part of Beijing's playbook.

drowingfish said:

i think even people who genuinely supports an independent Taiwan, would consider some form of self-preservation if the writing is on the wall. people are realistic for the most part. however, given the ineptitude of Taiwanese bureaucrats, i suspect most will simply do nothing. after all, even defecting to the enemy requires some courage and cleverness.

although i would not be surprised if there are officers or politicians who are in fact covert operatives working for China. those existed during the civil war, there is no reason to assume that it won't be part of Beijing's playbook.

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There are plenty of Taiwanese who supports China on a political level, and who would either surrender or assist with any 'invasion', although not that they would admit it publicly. They just do not have a way of speaking out strongly about their pro-mainland sympathy in the current political environment, which is one filled with repression and divisive democractic politics. But if you turn on the news, there are certain pro-mainland channels with pundits who talk extensively about Chinese culture, and who are openly hostile to the US. These guys would focus on their support of China, but not the CCP - that is a 'red line' fewer are willing to cross. The presence of these voices in the mainstream is one reason I think free speech is not lost in Taiwan under Tsai, at least not yet. But to address the strategic point raised here, I agree completely that there are plenty of people in important posts who would willingly assist with an 'invasion', and it actually seems like these sentiments are more widespread in the RoC military, where servicemen swore an oath to the RoC (not the fictitious state of Taiwan).

From my conversations with certain acquantainces, the reasons for their willingness to defect are several. The first reason is primal and perennial - Chinese nationalism. These are people who are proud to see a strong China. The second is that, by surrendering, they hope to reduce the amount of fighting that would take place. This means saving lives and property on both sides, but especially in Taiwan. Nobody put self-preservation as the main reason. I will add though that true CCP supporters in Taiwan are quite rare, as are believers of communism and socialism. It is more that pro-mainland people have accepted that CCP is staying as the government of China, and it is counterproductive to China's rise to oppose the CCP.

during the course of discussions in this thread, I have noticed one glaring omission, which is the hearts and minds of the TW population.
it is said that to destroy a country, you must first eradicate its history.
the present Taipei regime is doing just that, it is slowly but steadily eradicating Chinese history from its school curriculum, in a bid to sever the cross-strait bonds so much so that there is no more "Chineseness" among the youth.
as a result, the young TW people may no longer regard themselves as Chinese, but rather Taiwanese in their self-identity.
this Teutonic shift in self-identity among the young people ( from brotherhood to us-and-them ), compounded by the departure of more senior citizens who still regard themselves as Chinese as each year goes by, will make post-reunification governance more and more difficult and turbulent among a restless population if reunification is delayed much longer.
So I would argue that time is not actually on China's side in this aspect.
If I were President Xi, I would strike within 5 years, that is during his third term as President. In fact within 3 years, to allow another 2 years to restore public order during his tenure.

Jono said:

during the course of discussions in this thread, I have noticed one glaring omission, which is the hearts and minds of the TW population.
it is said that to destroy a country, you must first eradicate its history.
the present Taipei regime is doing just that, it is slowly but steadily eradicating Chinese history from its school curriculum, in a bid to sever the cross-strait bonds so much so that there is no more "Chineseness" among the youth.
as a result, the young TW people may no longer regard themselves as Chinese, but rather Taiwanese in their self-identity.
this Teutonic shift in self-identity among the young people ( from brotherhood to us-and-them ), compounded by the departure of more senior citizens who still regard themselves as Chinese as each year goes by, will make post-reunification governance more and more difficult and turbulent among a restless population if reunification is delayed much longer.
So I would argue that time is not actually on China's side in this aspect.
If I were President Xi, I would strike within 5 years, that is during his third term as President. In fact within 3 years, to allow another 2 years to restore public order during his tenure.

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It don't matter because those brainwashed "taiwanese" traitors will end up dying off as the generation goes by once unification has been achieved. More and more mainland immigrants can always come to the Taiwan province for business opportunities and raising a family, while keeping an eye on any potential dissidents.