Well there was a reason why PLA still trains on good old map and compass because I think PLA can just drop an EMP bomb to disable all electricity or attack us satellites that the drones rely on to disable them. Hence why PLA invested heavily on the new Electronic warfare branch
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
But the problem is that Iran understood its weakness and put its budget where it should've gone while the ROC is buying LPDs and unstealthy F-16s with its budget.
If they were competent and bought 5k MRBMs, yeah, they'd be dangerous.
I think if the Taiwanese authorities actually started either building or buying such a large quantity of missiles, the Mainland would have no choice but to intervene kinetically. It's a lesser cousin of the "making a run for nukes" scenario, but still problematic enough that armed unification cannot be postponed at that point.
That issue is that Island doesn't have strategic depth, is pretty small and so close that basically anything and everything can be hit with really cheap short range missiles and cheap drones. What give Iran its advantage is it size and the fact that the US started a war very far away.
buying LPDs and F-16s sure doesn't help though.
they'd be shot down on takeoff or at dock while doing 0 damage. See what happened to the Ukrainian Air Force and Navy or Iraqi Air Force in Desert Storm.
Well I don't think they would be making MRBM anytime soon, but if they do learn something from Iran surely the first thing to do would be to make a lot more Chien Hsiang, and that's well within their capability.
The problem for Taiwan is that China has SRBMs and drones too. For Iran, the heavy hitters are the MRBMs, with Shaheds acting mostly as distraction and strikes on undefended targets.
The other problem is that US only has high altitude superiority over Iran, not low altitude. China won't have this problem since Taiwan bought mostly US radar based air defense for high altitude threats. They didn't prepare for low altitude survival with IR/TV guided SAMs.
I think the goal of the DPP in their delusions is to sustain as much as they can and wait the US and their lapdogs to do the dirty job for them. I think they underestimating that different from the US that island is highly strategic for China as part of their territorial integrity and they are more willing to fight no matter at what cost than the other countries, even a nuclear exchange. China will rather have a diplomatic settlement, because you don't fight for what can get talking but nobody should underestimate the issue.
I want everyone to know that sufficiently powerful non-nuclear EMP weapons do not exist whenever someone mentions using EMP to destroy electronic equipment on the battlefield.
Full-Spectrum Barrage Jamming is just an SF. You need something like a Carrington event to do that.
Iran has the strategic depth to making hiding its strike positions plausible and finding them a headache. It’s much easier to play A2AD cat and mouse games when your adversary can’t flood your air space promptly and constantly. Taiwan is just too small. Whatever the daily sorties and time intervals the US is trying to do against Iran China would be able to do against Taiwan in multiples with much higher frequency, because Taiwan is right on China’s doorstep and it’s an area the size of Hainan.