PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

votran said:

doubt it , after decades of soft and weak propagranda about peaceful reunification , mainland population (hell ...even military personal) right now just don't have enough blood thirsty will to agree and support the idea "take the island not the people"

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I am sorry but do you read Chinese at all? The sentiment in the general population towards the Taiwanese population deteriorated significantly over the past decade. I might agree that some party leadership does not want to go that far but the same definitely cannot be said about the general public. The difference in sentiment can be large enough that sometimes the public fury needed to be suppressed, and we saw quite a few backfires on the leadership's part (i.e. Nancy Pelosi incident) as a result of that.

Recent revelations indicate Japan has successfully infiltrated the Philippine leadership, making the Philippines an unofficial ally of Japan. Should the ultra-right-wing Liberal Democratic Party secure over 300 seats as polls suggest, Japan is likely to deepen its infiltration of Taiwan's leadership. China must not only strike back at Japan economically and guard against its nuclear strategy but also develop sufficient countermeasures against Japan's efforts to infiltrate Taiwan's high-level circles. The coming years will be the most tense and confrontational period in Sino-Japanese relations.

GulfLander said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019601832126132376

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New mega $20 billion arms package prepared for Taiwan.

Will we see a meeting or a XACO?

Overbom said:

New mega $20 billion arms package prepared for Taiwan.

Will we see a meeting or a XACO?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019903972090187976

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Its always CACO, not just XACO.

If China had any kind of "red line", they will be announcing Arms donation, not sales, To Iran, Venezuela and Cuba.

China still doesn't have the guts to openly Challenge US, even in its own backyard. Its disappointing but sad reality.

tamsen_ikard said:

Its always CACO, not just XACO.

If China had any kind of "red line", they will be announcing Arms donation, not sales, To Iran, Venezuela and Cuba.

China still doesn't have the guts to openly Challenge US, even in its own backyard. It’s disappointing but sad reality.

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Well in the long term, let’s see how badly Trump ruins the USA first in the next half year. It’s not like China doesn’t know where those weapons are, nor does China not have agents all over Taiwan to act at a time when China is ready. Not to mention the more weapons they send to Taiwan, the less weapons the USA has for itself provided the rare earths ban is still in play.

Also all those weapon sales on paper and yet we don’t see much in terms of delivery to Taiwan. Is Taiwan bankrupting itself from buying downgraded weapons that will never make it to Taiwan because at the end of the day, Taiwan is lead by a stupid bullshit artist that has yet to deliver anything Tangible in terms of results ever since the DDP party is first in power.

In the long run, if China reclaims Taiwan through peaceful reunification, these weapons would be utterly useless. In fact, even if Taiwan possessed weapons dozens of times greater than its current arsenal, it would directly bankrupt its economy and strain its military structure. China could employ military deterrence to destabilize Taiwan's internal politics.
The cost, however, is that China would be unable to bear the price of an armed unification in the future. This effectively resembles another form of high-risk accelerationism, plunging Taiwanese society into chaos amid an arms race between the mainland and Taiwan.
China's ability to prevent continued U.S. arms sales is limited. For the United States, it is more acceptable to avoid deploying its own troops and instead rely on Taiwan's own forces to resist the mainland's People's Liberation Army. This allows the U.S. to avoid assuming defense responsibilities while continuing to profit from arms sales.

tamsen_ikard said:

Its always CACO, not just XACO.

If China had any kind of "red line", they will be announcing Arms donation, not sales, To Iran, Venezuela and Cuba.

China still doesn't have the guts to openly Challenge US, even in its own backyard. Its disappointing but sad reality.

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This is just an interest free loan from Taiwan to the US. There is a 10 year backlog on Patriots, something like 5 years on NASAMS (no other SAMs in US inventory besides Naval based). It took 5 years to deliver 100 M1s, and they paid 300M to Palmer (very) Luckey for drones that by recent reports do not work. And if you are worried that 20b is a lot of money to loan to the US, just note that Trumps tax cuts to the rich will cost trillions.