PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

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Ringsword

Senior Member
Registered Member
jiajia99 said:
Pretty sure at the rate things are going, the USA will destroy itself well before China has to fire a single nuke. Also, the nukes in the USA has a use by date and given how they really suck when it comes to the things that matter (maintenance and upgrades, both of which are lacking), whose to say if the nuclear stockpile of the USA has been already compromised long ago. It’s only a matter of time before the bluff is called and given the current win rate, the USA is bound to lose yet again. Also I do wonder, given how hush hush things are, I wonder, is Fort Knox already empty?
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IIRC a report came out some years ago that the USN's Polaris A1/A3 SLBM warheads actually didn't work despite being carried on deterrent patrols because of some problem with the warhead electronics/warhead itself etc melting/fusing itself??Deeply shocked to have read it.
 
E

enroger

Senior Member
Registered Member
Wrought said:
Breaking MAD because you are afraid of an irrational nuclear exchange is a textbook self-fulfilling prophecy. And how on earth can you launch many thousands of interceptors before the other guy—who is presumably running LOW—responds with a few dozen launches of his own?

I'm not familiar with any technical proposals for non-LEO interceptors. How would that even work? Like how can you physically cover enough distance in time to catch a boost-phase ICBM if you aren't in LEO? Or is the idea to use some ridiculously huge orbital laser? In any case, you should provide a link to whatever paper you have in mind.
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There was a concept called "Brilliant Pebbles" in the cold war and it is the basis for the so called "Golden dome" project now. Basically you launch thousands of space based interceptors and spread them in LEO similar to Starlink, each interceptor has a certain delta-V available to maneuver.

Upon the detection of a launch, the interceptor that happens to be in the right place and the right time can maneuver to intercept it in boost phase.

There're reports that point out such a system is something of a lemon though and I tend to agree with them:
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The gist is that time window for boost phase interception is extremely short (3 to 5 mins), very small portion of your space based interceptors is in range to respond. A geologically concentrated launch from even a small nuclear state (say DPRK) can overwhelm you defense. Keep in mind your typical interceptor is not feather light tiny thing like your Starlink sate, those are KKV with at least 4km/s delta-V, the cost to launch and deploy them in numbers is far higher than Starlink. A credible defense system of this type is not economically viable.

While "Golden dome" maybe a lemon in missile defense, it could be extremely potent in the role of space warfare and space blockade. This is where I think it pose the greatest threat should US is able to field it.
 
Temstar

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
enroger said:
There was a concept called "Brilliant Pebbles" in the cold war and it is the basis for the so called "Golden dome" project now. Basically you launch thousands of space based interceptors and spread them in LEO similar to Starlink, each interceptor has a certain delta-V available to maneuver.

Upon the detection of a launch, the interceptor that happens to be in the right place and the right time can maneuver to intercept it in boost phase.

There're reports that point out such a system is something of a lemon though and I tend to agree with them:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The gist is that time window for boost phase interception is extremely short (3 to 5 mins), very small portion of your space based interceptors is in range to respond. A geologically concentrated launch from even a small nuclear state (say DPRK) can overwhelm you defense. Keep in mind your typical interceptor is not feather light tiny thing like your Starlink sate, those are KKV with at least 4km/s delta-V, the cost to launch and deploy them in numbers is far higher than Starlink. A credible defense system of this type is not economically viable.

While "Golden dome" maybe a lemon in missile defense, it could be extremely potent in the role of space warfare and space blockade. This is where I think it pose the greatest threat should US is able to field it.
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I thought Brilliant Pebbles was to feature (nuclear) bomb-pumped x-ray laser were the interceptor release a cloud of lasing medium each with independent aiming system, then the nuke at the centre explodes and excite the lasing medium and causing them to shoot out x-ray laser in every direction before they are vapourized.
 
E

enroger

Senior Member
Registered Member
Temstar said:
I thought Brilliant Pebbles was to feature (nuclear) bomb-pumped x-ray laser were the interceptor release a cloud of lasing medium each with independent aiming system, then the nuke at the centre explodes and excite the lasing medium and causing them to shoot out x-ray laser in every direction before they are vapourized.
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You're thinking of another Star War concept in competition with Brilliant Pebbles
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G

gpt

Junior Member
Registered Member
no_name said:
My feel is that the Chinese manned moon mission will eventually (longer timeline) results in a moon base that can be militarized in relatively short period of time if needed.
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This idea is shared by top American and Chinese leadership. As I've stated many times on the forum, the next few decades of cislunar activity will change everything here on Earth. Some of the things being suggested have ridiculous dual-use purposes, which will force a completely new understanding of deterrence, and consequently will bring everyone to the table for a new Outer Space and Arms Treaty.
 
Wrought

Wrought

Senior Member
Registered Member
enroger said:
There was a concept called "Brilliant Pebbles" in the cold war and it is the basis for the so called "Golden dome" project now. Basically you launch thousands of space based interceptors and spread them in LEO similar to Starlink, each interceptor has a certain delta-V available to maneuver.

Upon the detection of a launch, the interceptor that happens to be in the right place and the right time can maneuver to intercept it in boost phase.

There're reports that point out such a system is something of a lemon though and I tend to agree with them:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The gist is that time window for boost phase interception is extremely short (3 to 5 mins), very small portion of your space based interceptors is in range to respond. A geologically concentrated launch from even a small nuclear state (say DPRK) can overwhelm you defense. Keep in mind your typical interceptor is not feather light tiny thing like your Starlink sate, those are KKV with at least 4km/s delta-V, the cost to launch and deploy them in numbers is far higher than Starlink. A credible defense system of this type is not economically viable.

While "Golden dome" maybe a lemon in missile defense, it could be extremely potent in the role of space warfare and space blockade. This is where I think it pose the greatest threat should US is able to field it.
Click to expand...

I'm familiar with Brilliant Pebbles, which is a LEO system. But the other guy specifically said not in LEO.
 
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