PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

RoastGooseHKer said:

But the U.S. economy was not cut off from the rest of the world, not to mention the US was 100% self sufficient in all industrial goods at that time. Should a war break out over Taiwan, expect at least a trade embargo by U.S., EU, Japan, Korea, India, Australia, and some ASEAN countries. It would have all its assets in above mentioned countries frozen or seized. China would be fighting whilst isolated and cutoff, but its adversaries won’t be. Worse, countries like India could become opportunistic and start attacking Chinese merchants in the Indian Ocean. Of course, a victory over Taiwan could alleviate these isolations, but most Chinese citizens would kiss goodbye to whatever is left of China’s trade with richest countries in the world. It would probably take decades before western countries would come to terms with a unified China.

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Here is the problem, Cutting off China is like Cutting off yourself from the world. Where will US and vassals get all the critical rare earth, thousands of other parts, machines and various manufactured goods?

Europe could not even cutoff Russia and had to import Russian oil and gas which is a commodity and there were alternative producers. China produces things that no one else does.

So, no. I don't think anyone is commiting economic suicide by trying to cut China off wholesale. There will most likely be selective action that those countries can tolerate.

As for raw materials import. China can import from Land from Russia. Russia pretty much has every raw material. China can also get raw materials from its neighbours transhipped. Finally, we are talking about a hypothetical scenario of China fighting a 4-5 years war with 5-6 million soldiers. They will be building up a massive navy. So, I don't think anyone can blockade China with that kind of naval power.

Finally, China's land based fighters, bombers, and anti-ship missiles have very long range. DF-26 can sink Ships in the Indian ocean from China's own border. Let that sink in. So no blockade is enforcable against China.

RoastGooseHKer said:

I absolutely agree with you that China would indeed churn out the most weapons and munitions so long as the war remains conventional. China will likely win most of the military engagements at its near abroad in the Western Pacific and South China Sea. But what remains unresolved would be China’s isolation by U.S. and EU following such military victories. Chinese manufacturers would be locked out from the most lucrative markets for decades to come even after such victory.

That could forced Beijing into a dilemma: accept unreasonable demands (very costly geopolitically) from rich white men to partially regain market access, or keep the engine of war humming by embarking on imperialism/hyper nationalism/militarism to capture more markets and resources the old pre-1945 Social Darwinian way. The second method would work well so long as it doesn’t trigger a nuclear war, but there is no guarantee.

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You really shouldn’t learn economics from Trump.
Everything you’re saying follows his logic — that if the U.S. stops buying Chinese goods, China will collapse, and Americans can just make everything themselves.
But trade is mutually beneficial. Otherwise, why would anyone start buying in the first place?
In reality, it is Chinese manufacturing that sustains the purchasing power of dollars and underpins their affluent lifestyles.
Do you seriously think the West can afford the cost of cutting off China?
If it became completely impossible to buy anything made in China (including through re-export trade), the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar would plummet, and prices on Amazon would surge several times over.
How much inflation can westerners tolerate — 300%? 1000%?
Force always works both ways, bro.

tamsen_ikard said:

Here is the problem, Cutting off China is like Cutting off yourself from the world. Where will US and vassals get all the critical rare earth, thousands of other parts, machines and various manufactured goods?

Europe could not even cutoff Russia and had to import Russian oil and gas which is a commodity and there were alternative producers. China produces things that no one else does.

So, no. I don't think anyone is commiting economic suicide by trying to cut China off wholesale. There will most likely be selective action that those countries can tolerate.

As for raw materials import. China can import from Land from Russia. Russia pretty much has every raw material. China can also get raw materials from its neighbours transhipped. Finally, we are talking about a hypothetical scenario of China fighting a 4-5 years war with 5-6 million soldiers. They will be building up a massive navy. So, I don't think anyone can blockade China with that kind of naval power.

Finally, China's land based fighters, bombers, and anti-ship missiles have very long range. DF-26 can sink Ships in the Indian ocean from China's own border. Let that sink in. So no blockade is enforcable against China.

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This reminds me of when the tariff war first started, many Chinese liberals urged the gov not to resist and just accept it because "the buyer is always right", "we will be easily replaced" etc. Of course, we all saw the result: a giant TACO

Russian sanctions and “Independence Day” have repeatedly demonstrated that

the scenario where the so-called leader of the righteous world—the U.S. president—issues a rallying cry, and "the WEST" to commit their political, economic, social, ideological, and military resources wholeheartedly to a complete break with the “axis of evil” simply does not exist.

US President cannot even stop American companies from importing some irreplaceable Russian products and has to issue exemption licenses.

bsdnf said:

This reminds me of when the tariff war first started, many Chinese liberals urged the gov not to resist and just accept it because "the buyer is always right", "we will be easily replaced" etc. Of course, we all saw the result: a giant TACO

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The Chinese government should send these people to the US. Pay the US gov if necessary.



4 月 21, 2018

来源：新浪微博 @国际气象观察（北京来美利科技中心经理 马臣）

如果说三月下旬我们对中美贸易战还可以使用低调处理这个词，那么现在的用词将非常明确，请向美国投降，别闹了。现在投降是最体面的时机，代价最小。这话我不是今天才说，过去一个来月我说过无数次。

我在这里明确无误的使用了投降两个字。现在投降的好处是无需跪着，站着举起双手即可。将来投降，不但要跪着，还必须跪姿标准，否则挨打更惨。这就是现在投降和将来投降最大的差别！

中华民族还远没有到可以跟美国正面对决的时候。现在不到时候，将来一百年内都不到时候！

中国刚刚改革开放四十年，这四十年我们仅仅是赚了点钱而已，是的，仅仅赚了点钱，把过去几百年来损失掉的金钱差不多全赚回来了，就这么点事。

但是，不要忘了，我们赚的这些钱，是美国给的。实话说我是反美的，但是情绪代表不了一切，美国现在轻易就可以消灭中国，这才是你必须面对的惨淡现实。

在芯片行业跟美国对抗，可能性已经为零。在地球毁灭之前，中国人永远不可能在芯片领域崛起到可以追赶上美国的地步，更不要认为可以超越。是的，没那个可能。如果你精神正常，请放弃抵抗，聊点别的吧！

芯片行业之所以不存在中美竞争这个侮辱智商的话题，这是因为比芯片行业更可怕的落后，还有精密机床。芯片的落后是一个大系统，这个系统中华民族可以驾驭，但永无可能与美国正面竞争。这是现实，喊口号无用。

在芯片领域只有冠军，没有亚军。中美两国战机同时上天，我军发现了敌机并按下了导弹按钮，但就在这一瞬间我们被打下来了。这就是芯片业的残酷性。是的，只有第一，没有第二。亚军请下跪，别不好意思。

2014年4月份，没错，就这个月份，整整四年前，微软停止对XP提供支持。请我们自己手捂着胸口说，在全中国境内发生了什么？自己说。

当天我在亚运村北辰超市结账，为了买一瓶矿泉水，在超市所有结账柜台前整整排队两个小时，最后这瓶水还是没买到。所有收银台的电脑系统全部崩溃，全北京，不，全中国的商业结算机构，以及全部银行，不得不得重新更换升级后的操作系统，经济才可以正常运行。

没错，请向美国投降，现在是代价最小的时候。现在投降的好处是无需跪着，站着举起双手即可。将来投降，不但要跪着，还必须跪姿标准，否则挨打更惨。这就是现在投降和将来投降最大的差别！

不投降的代价是什么？

当微软、苹果和谷歌三大操作系统同时向中国关闭之后：

1、所谓的大飞机当即死棋，运十的噩梦重演。美英法不用向中国发射导弹，停止供应链就行了。

2、中国大陆所有银行重新使用算盘。

3、全中国所有超市、商场和一切商务机构的收银台电脑彻底消失。

4、所有医院重新回到望闻问切时代，中国人治病全都靠红毛药酒。

5、全中国所有学校和一切教学培训机构回到粉笔时代，所有电视台彻底关闭，电视信号从中国大陆全境消失。

6、中国大陆全境的一切办事机构重新回到通讯员骑自行车跑腿传递信息时代。通讯基本靠喊，安保基本靠狗。

好，就这些，已经足够了。其它的自己想去。

你可以做梦，可以想象自己开发一个全新的操作系统与美国对抗。对不起，那个可能性跟本不存在！

现有的互联网根服务器在美国，人类现有的信息化（电脑应用）底层系统代码由美国人发明，被美国人垄断。人类可以发明出的另外一套运行系统无法与美国人发明的并且已经覆盖全球的系统兼容，那你最后只能成为前苏联。

至于原因，请参考上面那句话。两国战机同时上天，你发现了敌机并按下了导弹按钮，就在这一瞬间你被打了下来。争论到此结束。

自然法则决定了地球上的操作系统只能有一个，绝不会有两个。但愿这个道理你是站着接受的，而不是跪着。如果跪着接受，不但跪着，还必须跪直了上身，双手举得更高，否则挨打更惨。

有句话我说过无数次，最后在这里再重申一遍：

美国不是被打死的，是被拖死的。想用竞争的方式战胜美国，可能性为零。你只能等待机会慢慢拖死它，主动提挑战美国跟送死是同义词。

小钱靠挣，大钱靠命。中国人如果能超越美国，那一定是靠命。假如中国人有这个命，那你还忙什么呢？早晚的事。但是，如果你没这个命呢？请想象后果。

中国到底有没有靠竞争战胜美国的命？谁知道？请告诉我实话。

口号是大可以喊喊的，但别入戏太深就好。知道自己是谁，别跟美国撕破脸。

就这样，大家好运！

vincent said:

The Chinese government should send these people to the US. Pay the US gov if necessary.

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A big forest has all sorts of birds. After all, with China's population of over a billion, it's not surprising that there are people like this.
During the first trade war, China was indeed ill-prepared. A rash all-out war with the United States would have been extremely detrimental to China.
This person is primarily overly boastful and capitulatory.

Puss in Boots said:

Why is your mind always preoccupied with how to get the West to accept China?
This is a question the West needs to consider, not China!
When China can dominate all of Asia, the world will only praise China and call China a guardian of peace!
The dollar's anchor is currently based on Chinese industrial products. Once China and the US decouple, those wealthy countries you imagine will no longer be wealthy.
How could India have the ability to blockade the Indian Ocean? Doesn't it want its own territory anymore?

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This is the wrong mindset because they will never accept us regardless and we basically have to accept reality that we are pretty much on our own this whole time.

China was a capitalist country back in the ROC era but that hasn't stopped the west from stabbing China in the back after WW1 when we provided labourers to support their war effort and we got nothing. To add insult to injury they left to labourers to die showing us that they don't give a shit about Chinese. They stabbed us in the back again during the Japanese invasion by secretly supporting them before Pearl Harbour and then after WW2 by preventing China from recieving any reparations.

China became a communist country but that didn't stop the USSR from stabbing China in the back by backing the Dalai Lama, taking all of Dongbei's industry leaving the CCP with nothing and funnilly enough backed the KMT.

I think the CCP needs an even more nationalist policy because that is the only ideology that would help China.

RoastGooseHKer said:

I absolutely agree with you that China would indeed churn out the most weapons and munitions so long as the war remains conventional. China will likely win most of the military engagements at its near abroad in the Western Pacific and South China Sea. But what remains unresolved would be China’s isolation by U.S. and EU following such military victories. Chinese manufacturers would be locked out from the most lucrative markets for decades to come even after such victory.

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The "West" currently accounts for about 40% of global economic activity, with that share declining every year.

RoastGooseHKer said:

That could forced Beijing into a dilemma: accept unreasonable demands (very costly geopolitically) from rich white men to partially regain market access, or keep the engine of war humming by embarking on imperialism/hyper nationalism/militarism to capture more markets and resources the old pre-1945 Social Darwinian way. The second method would work well so long as it doesn’t trigger a nuclear war, but there is no guarantee.

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Consider the implications of your statements that:

1. China would win in its near abroad
2. Afterwards, China could keep the "engine of war humming".

That implies a massive Chinese naval buildup.

The US Navy states that China has 242x the shipbuilding capacity, so given time, we would likely see China build a significantly larger Navy centred around aircraft carriers.

That would allow the Chinese Navy to win blue-water naval battles around the world, and then impose a seaborne blockade on the US itself.

A potato said:

This is the wrong mindset because they will never accept us regardless and we basically have to accept reality that we are pretty much on our own this whole time.

China was a capitalist country back in the ROC era but that hasn't stopped the west from stabbing China in the back after WW1 when we provided labourers to support their war effort and we got nothing. To add insult to injury they left to labourers to die showing us that they don't give a shit about Chinese. They stabbed us in the back again during the Japanese invasion by secretly supporting them before Pearl Harbour and then after WW2 by preventing China from recieving any reparations.

China became a communist country but that didn't stop the USSR from stabbing China in the back by backing the Dalai Lama, taking all of Dongbei's industry leaving the CCP with nothing and funnilly enough backed the KMT.

A potato said:

I think the CCP needs an even more nationalist policy because that is the only ideology that would help China.

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Nationalism is a scourge, I think it's safer to keep it in a cage.

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When Napoleon marched on Paris, a newspaper ran headlines over the following days:
Day 1: "The Corsican Monster Lands at Port-Jouan"
Day 2: "The Man-Eating Devil Advances on Grasse"
Day 3: "The Usurper Enters Grenoble"
Day 4: "Bonaparte Captures Lyon"
Day 5: "Napoleon Approaches Fontainebleau"
Day 6: "His Majesty Will Arrive Today in His Faithful Paris"
I think Westerners still have this mindset today.

RoastGooseHKer said:

I absolutely agree with you that China would indeed churn out the most weapons and munitions so long as the war remains conventional. China will likely win most of the military engagements at its near abroad in the Western Pacific and South China Sea. But what remains unresolved would be China’s isolation by U.S. and EU following such military victories. Chinese manufacturers would be locked out from the most lucrative markets for decades to come even after such victory.

That could forced Beijing into a dilemma: accept unreasonable demands (very costly geopolitically) from rich white men to partially regain market access, or keep the engine of war humming by embarking on imperialism/hyper nationalism/militarism to capture more markets and resources the old pre-1945 Social Darwinian way. The second method would work well so long as it doesn’t trigger a nuclear war, but there is no guarantee.

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Buddy, I don't mean to mock you, but you should know that Japan and South Korea's fuel reserves would be reduced to ashes within a few days under a barrage of missiles from the PLARF and PLAAF. This means that all industry in Japan and South Korea would completely collapse.
By that time, more than 70% of the world's industrial capacity would have disappeared from the control of Western countries. Would you still call them wealthy nations then?