PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

RoastGooseHKer

Junior Member
Registered Member
I wonder who the PLA will fight with 5-6 million soldiers and what will happen to the economy and military of that enemy. You are also saying the war will drag for 5-6 years. So, that enemy will literally fall apart trying to sustain such a war against the PLA?

Whatever the war costs, if China achieves comprehensive victory after a 5-6 years of WW3, the economic benefits of that victory will far outweigh whatever losses or debts it incurs.

You actually discount China much low though. US in the WW2 was able to muster a military of 12 million with a population of just 100 million at that time. China can easily sustain an army of 50 million in a supposed ww3 with their 1.4 billion population.
But the U.S. economy was not cut off from the rest of the world, not to mention the US was 100% self sufficient in all industrial goods at that time. Should a war break out over Taiwan, expect at least a trade embargo by U.S., EU, Japan, Korea, India, Australia, and some ASEAN countries. It would have all its assets in above mentioned countries frozen or seized. China would be fighting whilst isolated and cutoff, but its adversaries won’t be. Worse, countries like India could become opportunistic and start attacking Chinese merchants in the Indian Ocean. Of course, a victory over Taiwan could alleviate these isolations, but most Chinese citizens would kiss goodbye to whatever is left of China’s trade with richest countries in the world. It would probably take decades before western countries would come to terms with a unified China.
 

RoastGooseHKer

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think you're really far off on this point. In most ways, China is the only country in the world that's capable of fighting a long term intensive war. Most countries with advanced militaries have very small munitions stockpiles, and they will run out of munitions within weeks, if not days. For perspective, France ran out of precision weapons in just a couple of weeks when they intervened in Libya, and that's against a country that basically couldn't fight back! The US is in better shape, but even they don't have that much in weapons stockpiles, and these are unlikely to last more than a few months. At which point, there's just not enough production capability to make up for the shortfall.

In comparison, while it's not publicized, we can safely infer that China does make a lot of advanced munitions and keeps large stockpiles. Moreover, it's way easier for China to scale up production on these weapons than for anyone else to do so. A long term conflict is all about who has the most industrial capability and electrial generation capacity, and guess who leads the world in both these metrics? And by a freaking lot?

The other big factors are about control of supply chains, and stockpiles of strategic materials, and the ability to produce intermediate goods. The US and most of the West doesn't believe in any of these so do you think any of them can sustain a long term war?
I absolutely agree with you that China would indeed churn out the most weapons and munitions so long as the war remains conventional. China will likely win most of the military engagements at its near abroad in the Western Pacific and South China Sea. But what remains unresolved would be China’s isolation by U.S. and EU following such military victories. Chinese manufacturers would be locked out from the most lucrative markets for decades to come even after such victory.

That could forced Beijing into a dilemma: accept unreasonable demands (very costly geopolitically) from rich white men to partially regain market access, or keep the engine of war humming by embarking on imperialism/hyper nationalism/militarism to capture more markets and resources the old pre-1945 Social Darwinian way. The second method would work well so long as it doesn’t trigger a nuclear war, but there is no guarantee.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
But the U.S. economy was not cut off from the rest of the world, not to mention the US was 100% self sufficient in all industrial goods at that time. Should a war break out over Taiwan, expect at least a trade embargo by U.S., EU, Japan, Korea, India, Australia, and some ASEAN countries. It would have all its assets in above mentioned countries frozen or seized. China would be fighting whilst isolated and cutoff, but its adversaries won’t be. Worse, countries like India could become opportunistic and start attacking Chinese merchants in the Indian Ocean. Of course, a victory over Taiwan could alleviate these isolations, but most Chinese citizens would kiss goodbye to whatever is left of China’s trade with richest countries in the world. It would probably take decades before western countries would come to terms with a unified China.
As if they can stand an embargo from China. Embargoes aren’t oneway streets.
 

RoastGooseHKer

Junior Member
Registered Member
As if they can stand an embargo from China. Embargoes aren’t oneway streets.

But here is a catch: China’s unemployed youths. If it is already 15-20% during peace time, I don’t know how bad the problems of unemployment and delayed wages would become if China were to face a sudden embargo by all developed countries. You don’t want millions of unemployed labours and bankrupted small business owners wondering around in the middle of a war. They would easily be subverted and instigated by adversaries’ propaganda. Of course, many of them could be picked up by defence industries, but there are only so many openings in the defence industries at a given time, not to mention most defence industrial productions jobs today aren’t simply blue collar jobs in the old days. They require years of specialised training and knowledge.

Not saying China would lose. But we are taking about full decoupling with China’s biggest trading partners all of a sudden.
 

Puss in Boots

New Member
Registered Member
But the U.S. economy was not cut off from the rest of the world, not to mention the US was 100% self sufficient in all industrial goods at that time. Should a war break out over Taiwan, expect at least a trade embargo by U.S., EU, Japan, Korea, India, Australia, and some ASEAN countries. It would have all its assets in above mentioned countries frozen or seized. China would be fighting whilst isolated and cutoff, but its adversaries won’t be. Worse, countries like India could become opportunistic and start attacking Chinese merchants in the Indian Ocean. Of course, a victory over Taiwan could alleviate these isolations, but most Chinese citizens would kiss goodbye to whatever is left of China’s trade with richest countries in the world. It would probably take decades before western countries would come to terms with a unified China.
Why is your mind always preoccupied with how to get the West to accept China?
This is a question the West needs to consider, not China!
When China can dominate all of Asia, the world will only praise China and call China a guardian of peace!
The dollar's anchor is currently based on Chinese industrial products. Once China and the US decouple, those wealthy countries you imagine will no longer be wealthy.
How could India have the ability to blockade the Indian Ocean? Doesn't it want its own territory anymore?
 

bsdnf

Junior Member
Registered Member
But here is a catch: China’s unemployed youths. If it is already 15-20% during peace time, I don’t know how bad the problems of unemployment and delayed wages would become if China were to face a sudden embargo by all developed countries. You don’t want millions of unemployed labours and bankrupted small business owners wondering around in the middle of a war. They would easily be subverted and instigated by adversaries’ propaganda. Of course, many of them could be picked up by defence industries, but there are only so many openings in the defence industries at a given time, not to mention most defence industrial productions jobs today aren’t simply blue collar jobs in the old days. They require years of specialised training and knowledge.

Not saying China would lose. But we are taking about full decoupling with China’s biggest trading partners all of a sudden.
Das Kapital 101: The best solutions to overproduction are: 1. Building houses 2. Direct material consumption through war.

Russia is the best example now. Military-industrial enterprises have absorbed a large number of workers, so that the manufacturing industry, which has always been sluggish, has fallen into a labor shortage.

The biggest revelation brought by the Russia-Ukraine war is that civilian products are already sufficient to be used as military weapons, and military-civilian integration is the right way. So who is the largest producer of civilian industrial products on the planet?

Naval blockade? Sanctions? Unemployment? Just over-print currency to create jobs, literally build a millions of Shaheds for the first island chain, and fill the Pacific and Indian Oceans with USVs and UUVs. If you go head-to-head with a country that accounts for 40% of global industrial capacity, its products will inevitably find their way to you. If China wants, it can become an total exporter of weapons to country neighboring the United States and European countries.
 
Last edited:

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
But here is a catch: China’s unemployed youths. If it is already 15-20% during peace time, I don’t know how bad the problems of unemployment and delayed wages would become if China were to face a sudden embargo by all developed countries. You don’t want millions of unemployed labours and bankrupted small business owners wondering around in the middle of a war. They would easily be subverted and instigated by adversaries’ propaganda. Of course, many of them could be picked up by defence industries, but there are only so many openings in the defence industries at a given time, not to mention most defence industrial productions jobs today aren’t simply blue collar jobs in the old days. They require years of specialised training and knowledge.

Not saying China would lose. But we are taking about full decoupling with China’s biggest trading partners all of a sudden.
Unemployment is much more bearable than having everything breaks down with no spares nor replacements. Chinese government can always print money and let the unemployed live normal lives. What can Westerners do with their worthless money?
 

Puss in Boots

New Member
Registered Member
But here is a catch: China’s unemployed youths. If it is already 15-20% during peace time, I don’t know how bad the problems of unemployment and delayed wages would become if China were to face a sudden embargo by all developed countries. You don’t want millions of unemployed labours and bankrupted small business owners wondering around in the middle of a war. They would easily be subverted and instigated by adversaries’ propaganda. Of course, many of them could be picked up by defence industries, but there are only so many openings in the defence industries at a given time, not to mention most defence industrial productions jobs today aren’t simply blue collar jobs in the old days. They require years of specialised training and knowledge.

Not saying China would lose. But we are taking about full decoupling with China’s biggest trading partners all of a sudden.
Let's not discuss the accuracy of your unemployment rate.
Did you know that war would divert many civilian factories to military production? Did you know that the military would draft soldiers? What are you really thinking about?
You keep talking about an embargo. China's simple restrictions on rare earth exports are already causing unbearable problems for the US. Who do you think the embargo is threatening?
Do you understand the value of the entire industrial chain? This means that China can monopolize the production of all industrial products. Do you think the embargo will have any real impact on China? Should you be worried about whether those countries involved in finance can survive under the embargo?
 
Top