PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
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This is why China is actively promoting green energy and new energy vehicles. China's oil consumption has reached its peak and is expected to decline slowly in the future. The reason why we don't see a decline in imports is that the saved fuel is processed into additional chemical products.
The Chinese government treats food and energy security super seriously so one of the prime precursors to an imminent war will be that it will start up a huge stockpile of oil and food - probably at least a 1 year supply.
And if war does break out, you can expect that China will simply reserve all oil to just military and critical industrial processes. Right now, EVs are popular enough in the Chinese transportation sector that it will be able to still function even with a complete oil ban. Oil isn't a huge component of China's power generation so just about everything can go straight to the military. Even when the oil stockpile diminishes, China is itself one of the world's largest oil producers, and they are on good terms with both Russia, Iran, and Iraq. This should be enough that strangling China's oil supply is just not a realistic strategy.
Food is in a similar situation in that China can supply most of its own needs, and it shouldn't have any trouble making up for any shortfalls from Russia and Southeast Asian. Sure, belts will have to be tightened as rationing is introduced, but it will still be more calories than what the Chinese populace had to subsist on in the '80s.
Overall, any Taiwan conflict shouldn't be a long drawn out event. Taiwan's internal calculations assume that they get massive American reinforcements within the first week. Taiwan simply can't hold out for very long, and once it falls, there's not much reason for the Americans to continue the war any more. While there are planners who envision a Taiwanese guerilla resistance for many months, this is simply unrealistic. By the time China lands ground troops and fighting starts on Taiwanese soil, the war will basically be over.
You’re ignoring an important point: if you want to use submarines to blockade a country with a long coastline, you need a large number of submarines. For example, Nazi Germany built over a thousand submarines to attack the Allied merchant fleet.
But how many submarines does the U.S. have today?
24 Los Angeles-class
18 Ohio-class
3 Seawolf-class
22 Virginia-class
That makes a total of 67 submarines.
I admit that modern submarines are faster and have greater range, but that doesn't mean one modern submarine can match the merchant ship-hunting capability of 15 WWII-era submarines.
Meanwhile, let’s look at how many Mark 48 torpedoes the U.S. has — around 1,046. In 2023, China completed construction of 42.32 million deadweight tons of ships, which is approximately 500 vessels. That means even if U.S. submarines had a 100% hit rate and the Chinese navy did not interfere at all, the U.S. would still run out of torpedoes after sinking just two years of China’s shipbuilding output.
lcloo
Major
I won't worry too much on China's import of crude oil and gas. Below are 2025 dated reports. Very surprising that Gas and Oil contributed only 2% of total energy consumption in electricity power generation in 2024. Also China has a relatively large oil and gas reserve.
In total energy consumption, oil is 18% and gas is 4% of total in China. This is on top of the electricity generation, including petrol for all modes of transport.
According to Globalfirepower.com, China's proven oil reserve global rank #13, with 26 billion bbl in 2024.
In 2024, coal was the largest source of energy at 62%, Hydropower was second at 13%, Wind and Solar combined at 18%, nuclear power at 5%, and the rest 2% (including gas and oil).
In total energy consumption, oil is 18% and gas is 4% of total in China. This is on top of the electricity generation, including petrol for all modes of transport.
According to Globalfirepower.com, China's proven oil reserve global rank #13, with 26 billion bbl in 2024.
In 2024, coal was the largest source of energy at 62%, Hydropower was second at 13%, Wind and Solar combined at 18%, nuclear power at 5%, and the rest 2% (including gas and oil).
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Many people hastily assume that China is a country poor in oil resources simply because it imports oil. In fact, that's not the case at all. In the early years of the Reform and Opening-up period, China even briefly exported oil to earn foreign exchange.
Rare earth issue?
As I said, gross incompetence! That's it. When you focus all your energy on wokeness, you will have incompetent people manning your key positions critical to national security.