PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

CMP

Captain
Registered Member
That depend. Russia knows that Ukraine park their jet fighters in NATO territory, but they never struck it. Will China be different? Hmm... Who know. It depend on how far China willing to take the risk. Will they take the risk to take all US, Japan, Australia, NATO, etc in one go, or just stay with Taiwan, but to risk getting bombed by Taiwan F-16V who park in Okinawa and Philippine. Russia don't have the gut to do that, Do China have? That's the question.

I'm sure that US and their allies will use the same strategy as what they do with Ukraine. They won't join the war directly, but will use everything their might to sabotage China, like what they do with Russia. So, will China all in, and start the world war 3 or just take the Russia suffer like now. I don't know.
You do realize China's currently military buildout looks tailor made to take on the US, Japan, South Korea, Australia, India and NATO all at once and still win, right? They're not going to spend years wrestling with Philippines or Taiwan while the West gets to cheer and throw funding from the sidelines. They're all fiscally exhausted to begin with anyways. There's no meaning in comparing China to Russia. It's like comparing the US to the UK.
 
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PiSigma

"the engineer"
Well, I think Taiwan will follow Ukraine's tactic to not put their F-16V on Taiwan island when the war erupts. I can guess that they'll put it on US base at Philippine or Okinawa Japan. When that happen, will China strike those bases or not. That's the question. Because Russia doesn't dare to do it, even when they know Ukraine keep their Jet Fighters in NATO bases in Poland and others.
I hope they put some jets in japan and Philippines. We can use a deserted radioactive island where japan used to be. And a new east of scs colony
 

AndrewJ

Junior Member
Registered Member
Guys downplaying Chinese radars can have a rest. Here's some professional analysis from Tylor & Rick:

JY-27 series has three types, including JY-27 (mid 2000s), JY-27A (mid 2010s), and JY-27V (mid 2020s). Based on the images from Venezuela, though slightly different from all three, but what they got most likely are the oldest JY-27 and over-a-decade-old JY-27A, which only have basic early warning functions for stealth planes. Only latest JY-27V can achieve weapon-level targeting & guiding SAM to hit planes.

Venezuela doesn't have a Integrated Air-Defense System or a capable air force, 20 minutes' early warning basically equals to nothing.

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FriedButter

Brigadier
Registered Member
That depend. Russia knows that Ukraine park their jet fighters in NATO territory, but they never struck it. Will China be different? Hmm... Who know. It depend on how far China willing to take the risk. Will they take the risk to take all US, Japan, Australia, NATO, etc in one go, or just stay with Taiwan, but to risk getting bombed by Taiwan F-16V who park in Okinawa and Philippine. Russia don't have the gut to do that, Do China have? That's the question.

I'm sure that US and their allies will use the same strategy as what they do with Ukraine. They won't join the war directly, but will use everything their might to sabotage China, like what they do with Russia. So, will China all in, and start the world war 3 or just take the Russia suffer like now. I don't know.

China doesn’t need to do anything about it if they follow the Ukraine playbook. It only works in Ukraine because they have secured logistics and supply chains through the massive land border. Taiwan is an island that is 67% the size of the Donbas region. The supplies on the island is only going downwards.

That playbook will only be viable for a few months before they are forced to make a decision about intervention. If they choose non-intervention then China will go along with letting the ROC park jets on foreign territory. It won’t make a difference and the conflict stays limited. If they choose intervention then the PLA and China who has been preparing for decades will be ready to fight that conflict.
 

CMP

Captain
Registered Member
I trust that all the X accounts based out of India and South Asia are expert military watchers of the highest caliber. They must be right about China and these other posts here are just CCP propaganda. Tyler Rogoway and Rick Joe sounds like classic fake white names that a CCP propagandist would use. That picture of "Tyler"'s fake white face looks like fake AI picture too. GG thanks for playing no re.
 
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latenlazy

Brigadier
I trust that all the X accounts based out of India and South Asia are expert military watchers of the highest caliber. They must be right about China and these other posts here are just CCP propaganda. Tyler Rogoway and Rick Joe sounds like classic fake white names that a CCP propagandist would use. That picture of "Tyler"'s fake white face looks like fake AI picture too. GG thanks for playing no re.
Look some of these copeposters just *really* want the fullsend spanking. They got a taste last year and are now addicted it seems.
 
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Wrought

Captain
Registered Member
"Lose" 110 pilots? As in pilots quitting because they're afraid they're going to get killed by Chinese pilots in any war scenario? Yeah. Awful scum. Signed up because they think it'll be like shooting fish in a barrel only to realize too late that they're the fish.

It's far more realistic to think that 110 pilots decided low pay and poor working conditions made it not worth continuing their military service. Mundane day-to-day shit is why people quit jobs every day.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
It's far more realistic to think that 110 pilots decided low pay and poor working conditions made it not worth continuing their military service. Mundane day-to-day shit is why people quit jobs every day.
Did you ever play a bootleg or beta game that keeps crashing/glitching/lagging/freezing? You didn't wanna play it for long, did you? That's probably how ROCAF pilots felt flying the "upgraded" F-16s.
 

Almond98

New Member
Registered Member
That depend. Russia knows that Ukraine park their jet fighters in NATO territory, but they never struck it. Will China be different? Hmm... Who know. It depend on how far China willing to take the risk. Will they take the risk to take all US, Japan, Australia, NATO, etc in one go, or just stay with Taiwan, but to risk getting bombed by Taiwan F-16V who park in Okinawa and Philippine. Russia don't have the gut to do that, Do China have? That's the question.

I'm sure that US and their allies will use the same strategy as what they do with Ukraine. They won't join the war directly, but will use everything their might to sabotage China, like what they do with Russia. So, will China all in, and start the world war 3 or just take the Russia suffer like now. I don't know.
So from your comments it seems like you think that japan and america is not going to join the war but rather indirectly support taiwan. If this is the case then this is great news for china as they have only 1 country to focus. Plus stationing their fighter jets to other countries is not going to help taiwan either. the respond time would be way slow. Plus china has thousand of fighter jets that can shoot down these incoming these fighter jets.
 
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