PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

muddie

Junior Member
IMO issue is not if China has the ability to capture Maduro like the US did, but lack of action, timidness, and political will when it comes to these types of operations. Simple truth is that the world respects and adheres to hard power, not diplomacy, negotiation, "win-win" politics, etc. Say what you will about Trump, US, Russia but they don't fear political backlash or perception on the world stage when it comes to geopolitical interests.

While I agree Taiwan is on a way higher league in the power spectrum than South American countries, a demonstration of lethal capabilities would easily solve China's annoyances in the SCS and intimidate those who challenge China's interests.
 

bsdnf

Senior Member
Registered Member
I mean, we know for a fact that infiltrators or compromised insiders have gotten close to the highest echelons of power in the DPP.

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Some soldiers and NCOs were not spies, but victims of loan sharking.

Loan sharks knew they were soldiers and forced them to record videos of themselves "joining the Communist Party," then reported them when they couldn't repay the loans.
 

GZDRefugee

Senior Member
Registered Member
Some soldiers and NCOs were not spies, but victims of loan sharking.

Loan sharks knew they were soldiers and forced them to record videos of themselves "joining the Communist Party," then reported them when they couldn't repay the loans.
That is both sad and hilarious. Makes sense given we know how ROCA is paid peanuts. What's stopping the ROCA, which is aligned with the KMT, from betraying the DPP though?

EDIT: We also have this incident.

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plawolf

Lieutenant General
A fix mount on a ship? Like a Lord-Clive class monitor?
GeneralWolfeStarboardQuarter.JPG

That would be a very narrow use case. If it's ship-mounted then a Shilao-class BB/BC would be the most flexible platform. 400mm is 16 inch and slapping three 16" guns in a turret is certainly doable.

This was the point that Shilao was trying to make with his scenario as well. He was saying thanks to Trump-class if we're doing this BB thing again then China has the technology ready to go to to make a much more convincing modern day BB than Trump-class, which he considers an insult to the "battleship" name.

At this point it’s far more likely they will just park one on each container ship and just spam a hundred such guns for the price of one BB and ask Trump if he wants to see the funniest magic trick ever where they can make a Trump Class go briefly airborne.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I'm not talking about the supergun itself, but the hypothetical naval platform where said supergun could be based on.

The primary (if not the only) purpose of the monitor is to shell enemy coastal installations and provide fire surpport for allied forces conducting amphibious assault operations against enemy beachheads. Other than that, monitors aren't useful at all: They are very slow; They don't have comparable radar, sensor and computing systems; They don't have sufficient endurance for the high-seas; and They have very weak defensive capabilities. This means that monitors are never suited for high-sea operations, hence limiting its flexibility and viability (and why we don't see a lot of them after WW1).

I think you're overfocusing on the monitor hullform for fire support missions for amphibious assault operations. The ship is just a platform to use the gun.

At a minimum, the munitions have to have GPS for long-range guidance and could weight 900 kg.
If the munitions have a 1200km range, they can hit everything including military bases


In the meantime, for China's case of the supergun (and taking the claimed range of 1200-1300 kilometers) - If the supergun is only meant to be used against the 1IC, then China doesn't really need to base the supergun on a naval platform at all. This is because most of its intended targets along the 1IC are already readily reachable with land-based system alone. That's why it makes no sense to base a supergun on a monitor.

A big issue is weight. The French version was 137 tonnes and had to travel via railway on land.
Being mounted on a ship would be useful.


If there is a need for a ship-based variant, then the PLAN might as well go further and base the supergun(s) on a proper sea-going warship, where the supergun(s) can be moved across the seas and strike targets that are much farther away from the Chinese coastline.

Moreover (albeit hypothetically) - Who says that the supergun must only attack stationary targets? Who says that the supergun cannot fire guided projectiles against (larger-sized) mobile sea targets, if such need arises?

Roughly speaking, it costs $2 Million to add an anti-ship seeker onto a munition.
No reason they couldn't do it, but I think a 400mm projectile is too slow and vulnerable to SAMs.

And I think the point of a supergun is to keep munitions costs low. GPS guidance should be around $25K and would account for most, if not all, of the munitions.
 

siegecrossbow

Field Marshall
Staff member
Super Moderator
Do y'all think it's possible for China to capture Lai like how the US captured Maduro?

I'm only asking if it is possible, not if it is strategically optimal.
If they paid off the body guards so that they purposefully get on a Z-20 instead of a Blackhawk due to “misidentification under low light conditions”, then yes. But what’s the point? There are other DPP politicians who’d love the promotion. You have to not only decapitate the hydra but cauterize the wounds as well so heads don’t grow back.
 

GZDRefugee

Senior Member
Registered Member
If they paid off the body guards so that they purposefully get on a Z-20 instead of a Blackhawk due to “misidentification under low light conditions”, then yes. But what’s the point? There are other DPP politicians who’d love the promotion. You have to not only decapitate the hydra but cauterize the wounds as well so heads don’t grow back.
Counterpoint: it would be funny as hell. Venezuela is not Maduro's one man show either. We are already seeing friction between loyalists and opposition unfolding.
 
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