PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Zhejiang said:

The US should be dragged to the ICC, just because the US commits war crimes that greatly harm civilians doesn’t mean China should do the same. China should aim to be more moral than the US not the extact same. Without power stations or fuel, water stops pumping, so they’re now drinking dirty water, food stops becoming refreshed spoiling food, hospitals stop functioning. All of that is what will happen if you destroy every power station and fuel depot it’s a massive war crime and I doubt China wants to cause mass harm to civilians just to reunite with Taiwan especially when doing this will destroy almost everyone’s support for China on the island.

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As I've said previously, I expect Chinese ships to be on standby to deliver aid such as food and petrol for humanitarian purposes.

Of course, that assumes the DPP allows this to happen. It may be that the DPP refuses, but then, you can't blame mainland China for that.

AndrewS said:

As I've said previously, I expect Chinese ships to be on standby to deliver aid such as food and petrol for humanitarian purposes.

Of course, that assumes the DPP allows this to happen. It may be that the DPP refuses, but then, you can't blame mainland China for that.

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Is that really necessary... I feel like China has so much airlift, they can organized aid on short-notice via airstrips once organized resistance is mostly crushed.

Sealift can be organized later when the battlespace is completely secured.

Zhejiang said:

I guess we will just have to agree to disagree because we’re not going to agree here. But I just hope what you realize is well a potential crime against humanity. You have a good day

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Personally I think bombing their fuel reserves and cutting off fuel supply IS the humane solution, because no one dies immediately, and they get a chance to reflect on if resistance is worth continuing before the first PLA soldier even lands. I hope an amphibious invasion is a last resort.


How do you think the war ought to go? How restrictive RoE do you have in mind? I think you are demanding an unrealistic level of care for civilians that no army has practised for a long time.

HighGround said:

Is that really necessary... I feel like China has so much airlift, they can organized aid on short-notice via airstrips once organized resistance is mostly crushed.

Sealift can be organized later when the battlespace is completely secured.

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Airplanes can't deliver that much tonnage.

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And humanitarian deliveries would happen even whilst any conflict is still going on.

So there would have to be a humanitarian corridor opened up for [Chinese Red Cross?] aid ships to arrive in Taiwanese ports still controlled by the Taiwanese military.

And China will perform such public acts of kindness because:

1. China doesn't actually want to kill everyone in Taiwan, unlike what the Israeli government wants to do in Gaza

2. It buys goodwill, because frankly, many Taiwanese still have a completely distorted view of China. Just look at the political crisis the DPP had earlier this year, because the DPP narrative of Chinese people as backward, poor and hating Taiwanede was proven to be lies when Gym boss livestreamed his China trip to millions of his Taiwanese followers.

3. It will have a positive PR effect in the rest of world.

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Of course, this all depends on the Taiwanese government as well.

AndrewS said:

Airplanes can't deliver that much tonnage.

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There's less than 200 KM between China and Taiwan. Yeah, the tonnage is small, but it's way faster and the distance is miniscule, you can run sorties 24/7. I mean... 10 years from now people on Taiwan could probably order humanitarian aid delivery from JD via drones.

wuguanhui said:

Personally I think bombing their fuel reserves and cutting off fuel supply IS the humane solution, because no one dies immediately, and they get a chance to reflect on if resistance is worth continuing before the first PLA soldier even lands. I hope an amphibious invasion is a last resort.


How do you think the war ought to go? How restrictive RoE do you have in mind? I think you are demanding an unrealistic level of care for civilians that no army has practised for a long time.

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I think destroying all their fuel supply and fuel reserves is a massive war crime, I just don’t people realize that. I’m not asking for a lot, I’m saying the correct opition isn’t to bomb every single fuel depot or cut off the fuel supply because it greatly effects civilians and while China doesn’t want resistance in their reunification punishing civilians so they don’t deal with resistance is also a war crime and doesn’t stop resistance it can actually make it stronger. The best option is a blockade and to bomb some of the fuel stations but not to bomb every one. My RoE is mainly just don’t commit massive war crimes that greatly harm civilians im not saying don’t bomb fuel depots or power stations but I’m saying don’t bomb every one given how important they are to civilian way of life.

Zhejiang said:

I think destroying all their fuel supply and fuel reserves is a massive war crime, I just don’t people realize that. I’m not asking for a lot, I’m saying the correct opition isn’t to bomb every single fuel depot or cut off the fuel supply because it greatly effects civilians and while China doesn’t want resistance in their reunification punishing civilians so they don’t deal with resistance is also a war crime and doesn’t stop resistance it can actually make it stronger. The best option is a blockade and to bomb some of the fuel stations but not to bomb every one.

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Tell that to the dead PLA soldiers’ families.

Gloire_bb said:

Nothing changes too much - even Israel didn't really get to starve Palestine to death. This isn't applicable to China in Taiwan at all.

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Uhh the only reason more Palestinians didn’t starve was because of the politics. Taiwan, unlike Gaza, is also an island so once the buildings and infrastructure start getting destroyed the siege effects will be much worse.

And while Israel can reduce rather poor buildings in Gaza easily - Taiwan is a far nastier matter, even compared to Donbas. It's a far more recent, far higher and far more concentrated construction.
It isn't all that hard to reduce buildings to unlivable. It's in fact quite hard to reduce them into pile of rubble. Moreover it's sort of pointless - their hiding value doesn't diminish from that (in fact it sort of grows, tracking things in orderly city is easier).

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What are you talking about…Gaza City had 4x the urban density of Taipei and Taiwan is kinda infamous for how old most of their buildings are. Have you never been?

vincent said:

Tell that to the dead PLA soldiers’ families.

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Just because PLA soldiers might die doesn’t justify the harm caused to civilians by doing what you suggest what will greatly harm civilians like hospitals effecting treatment, water, and food. Do you think harming civilians is the correct option?

Zhejiang said:

I think destroying all their fuel supply and fuel reserves is a massive war crime, I just don’t people realize that. I’m not asking for a lot, I’m saying the correct opition isn’t to bomb every single fuel depot or cut off the fuel supply because it greatly effects civilians and while China doesn’t want resistance in their reunification punishing civilians so they don’t deal with resistance is also a war crime and doesn’t stop resistance it can actually make it stronger. The best option is a blockade and to bomb some of the fuel stations but not to bomb every one. My RoE is mainly just don’t commit massive war crimes that greatly harm civilians im not saying don’t bomb fuel depots or power stations but I’m saying don’t bomb every one given how important they are to civilian way of life.

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Denying fuel is not a war crime!