PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Gloire_bb

Major
Registered Member
Doesn’t really make sense to. If they justify civilian vs civilian retaliation they will end up losing much quicker because it green lights indiscriminate attack on urban centers.
It doesn't quicken anything.
Striking civilians (unless overwhelming to a degree hardly achievable by conventional weaponry) overall does little for military purposes, and mostly just wastes PG potential.
 

Expert1324

Junior Member
Registered Member
Came across something really funny today, do you guys know about the ROC constitution Article 119 and 120 under the local governance of Provinces and Hsien section?

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lmao green frog got owned so badly its not even funny.
 

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vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
I doubt the government will care about the people there but China finishing Taiwan in a month or less is highly optimistic and the best case scenario I personally a think more realistic case is 3-5 months or more depending on what tactics Taiwan uses. And destroying every fuel depot and store fuel, every power station and transformer is unlikely and would be a war crime and cause great amounts of harm to the civilians what I doubt China wants.
Maybe you should look up what NATO did to Yugoslavia. Power stations and fuel depots are war resources, perfectly legitimate targets.
 

Zhejiang

Junior Member
Registered Member
In a blockade scenario, Taiwan runs out of fuel and electricity generation in a matter of weeks. 5 months seems far too long for Taiwan to continue functioning.

And I would point out that China should be perfectly happy to send relief ships carrying food to Taiwan.
To my knowledge Taiwan has alot more than a few weeks worth of fuel, and they would also ration out of their fuel too, all I’m saying is expecting Taiwan to lose in a matter of weeks to a month is incredibly optimistic
 

Zhejiang

Junior Member
Registered Member
Maybe you should look up what NATO did to Yugoslavia. Power stations and fuel depots are war resources, perfectly legitimate targets.
They are war resources but destroying every single power station or fuel depot or even destroying the vast majority of them a war crime given how much civilians rely on it too for daily life. Destroying some is perfectly legal given their duel use but destroying every single one is definitely a war crime.
 

GZDRefugee

Junior Member
Registered Member
They are war resources but destroying every single power station or fuel depot or even destroying the vast majority of them a war crime given how much civilians rely on it too for daily life. Destroying some is perfectly legal given their duel use but destroying every single one is definitely a war crime.
Are you gonna drag the US to the ICC? Because that's exactly what they did multiple times. As far as I'm concerned, that's legal precedence.
 

Zhejiang

Junior Member
Registered Member
Are you gonna drag the US to the ICC? Because that's exactly what they did multiple times. As far as I'm concerned, that's legal precedence.
The US should be dragged to the ICC, just because the US commits war crimes that greatly harm civilians doesn’t mean China should do the same. China should aim to be more moral than the US not the extact same. Without power stations or fuel, water stops pumping, so they’re now drinking dirty water, food stops becoming refreshed spoiling food, hospitals stop functioning. All of that is what will happen if you destroy every power station and fuel depot it’s a massive war crime and I doubt China wants to cause mass harm to civilians just to reunite with Taiwan especially when doing this will destroy almost everyone’s support for China on the island.
 
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plawolf

Lieutenant General
Doesn’t really make sense to. If they justify civilian vs civilian retaliation they will end up losing much quicker because it green lights indiscriminate attack on urban centers.

They will loose no matter what. The goal, as directed by the Americans, was never about winning, but about causing maximum damage to China.

Viewed from that lense, triggering PLA reprisal attacks against civilian targets is precisely what the Americans want, to further aggregate grievances and ferment popular resentment, unrest and ultimately armed resistance to Beijing’s rule when they inevitably loose.

This is also why the PLA will do what it has always done, to show extraordinary restraint and discipline, and go to extreme lengths of avoid civilian casualties and collateral damage where possible.

This will be greatly facilitated by China’s growing technological dominance in drone warfare and AI. So, if the ROCA hides missiles in cities, rather than go Gaza Blitz like the Americans or Israelis, what the PLA is far more likely to do is deploy drones to deal with them precisely. Think MALE UCAVs parked 24/7 over suspected HIMARs hiding spots waiting for a clean shot; and/or swarms of AI micro drones being dropped to go into underground structures to automatically hunt for the launchers. They can daisy chain to provide two way data connection if needed to provide both kill confirmation as well as allow man-in-the-loop override in case they go after something civilian by mistake.
 

GZDRefugee

Junior Member
Registered Member
The US should be dragged to the ICC, just because the US commits war crimes that greatly harm civilians doesn’t mean China should do the same. China should aim to be more moral than the US not the extact same. Without power stations or fuel, water stops pumping, so they’re now drinking dirty water, food stops becoming refreshed spoiling food, hospitals stop functioning. All of that is what will happen if you destroy every power station and fuel depot it’s a massive war crime and I doubt China wants to cause mass harm to civilians just to reunite with Taiwan especially when doing this will destroy almost everyone’s support for China on the island.
25 million people is chump change. The Taiping Rebellion, a Chinese civil war from over a century ago, resulted in more casualties than the entire population of Taiwan.

The only "war crime" is losing.
 
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