This is basically my thinking: HIMARS might employ a bunker deployment-sprint launch approach, similar to ICBM TELs. It would be extremely difficult to detect and destroy before launch unless there is extensive aerial surveillance by numerous drones. Amphibious operations and coastal cities would face significant casualties until decisive air superiority is achieved.
Therefore, in the previously envisioned escalation of gray warfare (blockade) – amphibious operations on outer islands – amphibious operations on the main island, airspace control operations might occur earlier and more intensely. The contest for airspace (not merely aerial combat) will serve as a localized engagement phase between gray warfare and full-scale war. Such as establishing no-fly zones during the blockade phase, declaring the destruction of any retaliatory equipment, and attempting of forced airspace takeover using drones. Complete air superiority might even be a prerequisite for amphibious operations.
Furthermore, the recent indiscriminate bombing by Israel and the US, primarily using their air forces, has somewhat desensitized the world to these actions.
You do not comprehend the sheer scale of Chinese drone warfare capabilities.
ROC will loose control of the skies in the opening hours of any fight. But even before then, the PLA will be flooding the combat space with MALE UCAVs and higher end stealth drones for both 24/7 real time surveillance and immediate strike of high value targets.
HIMARs and other long range weapons will be lucky to be able to get out of hiding into launch position before being spotted and engaged, and any that do manage to fire will immediately draw an overwhelming response such that the odds of it being able to escape to fire again will be comically low. So, Taiwan will have an impossible choice, keep their HIMARs in hiding for the landings or consider them single use assets since they will basically loose any they do use before then.
You will also be dealing with the full spectrum of logistical and communication problems as the PLA will be mad to not immediately take down Taiwan’s entire power grid and comms networks.
After a few days of lights out, civilian signals traffic will drop off a cliff, which will massively aim PLA SIGINT and EW efforts, as basically anything emitting signals is very likely to be military at that point, which will significantly aid in hunting down hidden assets and forces.
And when the landings do happen, you can also expect massive jamming, so good luck getting what surviving HIMARs to fire in time. And that’s not even considering targeting.
The whole HIMARs sale is massively hyped up, and is largely irrelevant from a military POV without western sensor assets acting as part of the kill chain like they are doing in Ukraine. So either the Americans are delusional in thinking China will allow them to play that game in Taiwan, or the HIMARs are little more than the modern equivalent of Hitler’s wunderwaffle V weapons only useful for terror bombing cities. I would say both likelihoods are equally likely and not mutually exclusive.
