PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Phead128

Phead128

Major
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Mmmeeeto said:
Their bravery only shows when they are fighting a weak enemy like Iraq. Definitely won't be the same for China
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US tends to prefer to fight enemies that it can overpower relatively easy and with minimal casualties. Yes, just see the US aggressiveness against Iranian nuclear program vs. North Korean nuclear program. It's a night and day difference, the memory of Korean war is fresh and alive.

If China continues to increase the cost of intervention conventionally (and nuclear wise), then it's a forgone conclusion will sit this one out.
 
4

4Tran

Junior Member
Registered Member
votran said:
semiconductors is the key point for US/west "rally under the flag" when taiwan confict become real . because you can't rally american/western europe/australian/japanese/south korean with the true face off reason like
if we don't fight a ww3 with china now , they gonna break out 1st island chain design to contain them , they gonna control world most busy shipping lane , threaten our rule , our throne in pacific ocean and the world
only nut job will join the military or support a ww3 with china with those reason
but if you say : let fight china and help taiwan , save the semiconductor industy if you refuse china gonna control most advantage tech industry : no chip = no car , no washing machine , no TV , playstation , xbox , smartphone ...etc for your every daily life anymore
that gonna work much better , people fear the thing threaten their daily life comfort way more than some distance geopolitic issue

if china want to prevent this : taiwan semiconductor industry must be destroy first before invasion , or blockable even start

because there are no benefit doing after US/nato/west/japan already successful using it to rally their nations enter the war with china

once their nation enter the war that mean no chicken out because soldier die , ship sunk . aircraft shot down , military/nation pride under attack , superpower , most powerful military allied on earth lose face again "temu , wish.com ,cheap copy communist" their alway look down upon so most citizen will have no choice but to support the war
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I've seen all sorts of Youtube yahoos talking about how Taiwan could easily destroy TSMC facilities if a war were to break out. My thought was "Of course! Why would anyone have trouble destroying their own infrastructure?" And why would anyone destroy their own factories and machinery in the first place? And it wouldn't even help because China already has the second most advanced semicondutor foundries in the world. If TSMC gets wiped out, then China would then have the most advanced ones in the world!

Mmmeeeto said:
This reminds me of a funny conversation I had with an Iraq War veteran

I asked him what motivated him to fight in Iraq since all justifications for the war were exposed to be made up

he gave me the most clueless response that "they were commies" or something which absolutely makes no sense, I think the same will go for the majority of US servicemembers

So this is why I think the emphasis China puts on ideological education is really important

Because when US soldiers start dying left and right in the scs they would be in for a surprise that their sacrifice and PTSD is for snapdragon x2 elite

Their bravery only shows when they are fighting a weak enemy like Iraq. Definitely won't be the same for China
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Why fight an optional war you can't win? For a long time, the Americans have conducted wargames where the PLA tends to win. Once they project the loss of a carrier or two in a conflict, it'd no longer worth it for them. Note how the messaging on Taiwan has changed over the years. Nowadays the Americans don't even want a war in Taiwan any more even though it feels that a war is the only way to counter China.

Realistically, Taiwan is not a core interest of the US. The only reason it has much importance is because it's a pain point for China so it's advantageous to hang onto it.
 
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